Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fairview Beach, VA

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Typical Summertime pattern continues with building heat next week. Storm chances today decreasing Sunday and Monday.

- 2) A cold front could arrive late next week bringing relief from the heat and humidity into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... Typical Summertime pattern continues with building heat next week. Storm chances today decreasing Sunday and Monday.

It's a typical Summertime pattern as we enter the second weekend and week of August. The forecast is on repeat with patchy morning dense fog giving way to hot and humid conditions with late day afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Round one of storms has pushed across the MD/PA border this afternoon, which was very poorly handled by any model guidance.
High CAPE/DCAPE values, steep low-level lapse rates, and 30-35 knots of shear yields a pretty potent organized cluster, especially in northeast MD. Watching a few clusters of storms over the Shenandoah Valley this afternoon, which is the round that was anticipated in previous forecasts. There are a few question marks now, especially since the prior storms threw an outflow boundary all the way to the I-66 corridor. As storms progress east, we will see how any storms interact with said boundary. High-end today seems to be small, organized bowing segments with the potential for 60-70 mph wind gusts. This is due to much more DCAPE today (on the order of 1000 J/kg)
compared to recent days. Still, coverage is much more isolated, which was expected, so POPs remain around 40 percent the rest of the afternoon, but anyone under one of these storms could be dealing with damaging winds, torrential rainfall and frequent lightning. Flooding threat is pretty minimal at this point, as storms have been moving very quickly thus far. Again, if anything gets hung up and the intersection of boundaries, you could see some isolated issues if it is over a sensitive area, but that should be few and far between.

Convection wanes a bit Sunday given quasi-zonal flow aloft and the strengthening upper-level ridge axis nearby. A few storms may develop over the higher elevations, but coverage will be much less than in recent days. This will be short-lived however, with storm chances increasing once again Tuesday through the end of the week as a series of shortwave disturbances pass through.

Things have changed slightly on Monday, as precipitation chances have increased a bit over the past several model runs.
Another piece of shortwave energy will slide across the region amidst a hot and very humid airmass yet again. Similar to what we are seeing today, coverage is a question mark at this point, but could be a couple of pretty strong to severe storms that day. Something that bears watching at this stage, but confidence is just too low for a severe weather outlook at this point.

Outside of he storm chances expect highs in the upper 80s and low 90s with heat indices east of the Blue Ridge up around 100 degrees.
The hottest days look to be Monday and Tuesday given the strengthened subtropical ridge over the region. Highs will push into the mid 90s with heat indices closer to 105 degrees east of the Blue Ridge/along the urban corridor.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front could arrive late next week bringing relief from the heat and humidity into the upcoming weekend.

Daily storm chances look to continue through at least Friday as a more potent frontal system tracks toward the region. Ahead of that front will be several fast moving shortwave disturbances which will help aid in shower and thunderstorm development during the diurnal period. Storm coverage is a bit uncertain with activity remaining isolated to scattered Tuesday becoming a scattered to numerous Wednesday into late week as the front tries to push through.
Speaking of the front, details remain a bit murky on it's passage.
Most 00z ensemble/deterministic guidance suggests a frontal passage Thursday afternoon into Saturday. Guidance also depicts an MCS type setup during the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe. Machine learning guidance is grabbing onto this as well with probabilities running between 15 to 30 percent for severe weather during the midweek timeframe. SPC mentions areas back toward our west on the Day 4 and 5 outlook, so something we'll continue to monitor, especially as the subtropical ridge flattens.

There is a bit more uncertainty in regards to severe weather Thursday through Saturday. Of course with any decent frontal passage will have to be monitor given machine probabilities remaining between 5-30 percent for severe weather. This will ultimately be determined by the timing of the front in regards to the peak heating period. Temperatures will cool from the 90s into the 80s late week.
Weather does look to improve for the upcoming weekend as Canadian high pressure works into the region.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected across the terminals through the middle of next week given subtropical high pressure offshore and the lack of any real front passing through. Brief periods of sub-VFR are likely during the afternoon and evening hours due to thunderstorms.

For the rest of the afternoon, maintaining PROB30s for now, as redevelopment of storms thus far after the initial wave has been very sporadic. Still think any of the terminals could see a storm this afternoon, but not certain enough to put an FM or TEMPO in at this time. Outflows from the stuff that slid across the MD/PA border this morning are through all but CHO, so CHO probably stands the best chance. However, there is some redevelopment just south of CHO, so there is some chance that could happen anywhere. BWI and MTN really got worked over with the initial line, so perhaps those areas have slightly less of a chance than the rest.

Storm coverage drops off even more Sunday with high pressure briefly returning. By Monday though, chances have increased again, primarily for the northern terminals. Still only around a 30 percent chance at this time, but any storms Monday could bring gusty winds and lightning once again. Outside of the thunderstorms expect patchy fog between the terminals each morning through early next week. Winds will remain light out of the west and southwest at less than 15 kts.

Temporary restrictions will continue at times through at least Friday as we await a cold front to sweep through.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for portions of the open water due to southerly channeling mainly later this afternoon and evening. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected each afternoon and evening through early next week, except for on Sunday. Special Marine Warnings may be needed to encompass any any stronger thunderstorms that may form. Damaging wind gusts and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning will be the main threats between 19z-01z/ 3-9pm each day.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ534-537- 543.