Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carmet, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:56PM Thursday April 22, 2021 7:18 AM PDT (14:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:57PMMoonset 3:15AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 236 Am Pdt Thu Apr 22 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through Friday morning...
Today..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft, increasing to 7 to 8 ft this afternoon. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 10 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 8 to 9 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft. NW swell around 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft. Mixed swell nw around 2 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 to 3 ft at 20 seconds.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W around 2 ft at 11 seconds and S 2 to 3 ft at 19 seconds.
Sat night..S winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. Mixed swell nw 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 to 3 ft at 18 seconds. Rain.
Sun..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft and S 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 4 to 5 ft and S 2 to 3 ft.
PZZ500 236 Am Pdt Thu Apr 22 2021
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Northwest winds remain strong with occasional gusts near gale force strength over the northern outermost waters. These locally stronger winds will generate hazardous conditions for small craft vessels. A moderate locally generated northwest swell will prevail through the end of the week. A building southerly swell will move through the waters alongside the chance for rain this coming weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carmet, CA
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location: 38.37, -123.08     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 221135 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 435 AM PDT Thu Apr 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. Mostly cloudy skies this morning clearing back to the coast by midday. Highs mainly in the 60s with some lower 70s inland. No big forecast changes for Friday. Clouds and westerly winds increase on Saturday ahead of incoming cold front leading to a cool start to the weekend. Showers could start as early as Saturday night in the North Bay but steady rain should hold off until Sunday as the main cold front passes north to south through the region. Showers should be ending by early Monday with modest warming and drying through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION. as of 3:43 AM PDT Thursday . Early morning satellite looks summer-like with stratus covering much of the ocean and pushing inland throughout the Bay Area. The layer is deep, at least 2000 feet and expect further inland expansion throughout the North and East Bay valleys through sunrise. Low pressure aloft is still carving out over SoCal with water vapor still showing shortwave energy and cyclonic curvature west of Point Conception that is helping to keep the marine layer sufficiently deep with onshore gradients pushing the low clouds inland. Expect a fairly slow burn-off of clouds back to the coast today with highs mainly in the 60s throughout the Bay Area and some 70s farther inland.

Changes for Friday look subtle at best. The marine layer should compress slightly with less of an inland push but forecast temps aren't expected to change too much with onshore winds in place. Latest model guidance keeps daytime highs near or slightly below normal for the end of the work week with continued 60s/70s.

Saturday morning should start out mostly cloudy with a deep push of marine clouds as the layer deepens ahead of the incoming trough. Much of Saturday still looks dry but the combination of clouds and onshore winds will keep temps below normal. Saturday will still be the weekend day for outdoor activities or any final storm preparations like getting your rain barrels ready, clearing the gutters or putting the plants outside where they can catch some rain.

In terms of the weekend rain storm there haven't been too many changes of note. The system is currently located over the Aleutian Islands of Alaska where we actually get decent model initialization with numerous upper air sites across Alaska. A ridge will build over Alaska, helping to send the storm towards Northern California late Saturday into Sunday. If anything the models are trending slightly faster with the arrival of rain and the main surface cold frontal passage during the day Sunday. This is not surprising with cold-core northwest flow systems. So expecting some showers for the North Bay as early as Saturday evening. Steady rain still looks to envelop much of the Bay Area on Sunday with some pre-frontal warm advection light rains in the morning followed by a period of moderate rainfall as the front passes through the region during the day. Much of the rain looks to end by Sunday evening, except lingering a little longer for the Central Coast. Still not seeing any strong thunder signals with the core of the upper low staying well to our north, near Crescent City. Nonetheless this will be a fairly cold system with snow levels dropping to around 5000 feet, not much of any impact around here but that type of vertical temp profile is conducive for efficient rainfall production. Latest trends look slightly wetter with 0.50-1.00 for the North Bay hills/Santa Cruz mtns, 0.25-0.50 around SF Bay/Peninsula/North Bay valleys and 0.10-0.25 for the interior East/South Bay valleys.

So things still on track for a rainy Sunday. The speed of the frontal passage will be a limiting factor for getting heavier rainfall totals. In reality this system seems about the best we can expect this late in the season. As previously noted it wont come close to ending the drought but will bring beneficial rains and help to temper the onset of fire season. Snow will fall across the Sierra with fairly low snow levels which is helpful from a water resource perspective. Will note that high temps on Sunday will be very chilly regionwide with clouds and precip, highs only in the 50s with 40s in the hills. Cool air behind the system will bring some chilly mornings for Monday and Tuesday but not seeing frost/freeze concerns at this time.

Long range looking warmer and drier for next week though the Euro does show another possible weak trough, perhaps staying just to our north before the end of the month.

AVIATION. As of 04:33 AM PDT Thursday . For the 12Z TAFs. The cloud cover has remained through out the night, with the exception of the hole located directly over KSFO. Most cigs are MVFR, with isolated LIFR at KSTS. Weak winds and a weak pressure gradient will keep these clouds around until 18Z. However, the forecast keeps MVFR conditions in play for terminals around the Monterey Peninsula through the TAF period. The rest will see brief VFR skies Thursday afternoon as winds from the ocean increase, with a few stronger gusts possible. Hi-res models are indicating an earlier return for clouds with the chance of slightly lower cigs. IFR may be possible, but confidence was too low to add them at this time, so cigs were mostly kept for Thursday evening at MVFR levels, but will be monitored through the day.

Vicinity of KSFO . Thick clouds literally surround the SF Bay, but remained away from the terminal overnight. Satellite imagery continues to show it closing in, so a TEMPO group was added as it is expected to come back in. Conditions should begin to improve between 17Z and 18Z, leading to VFR conditions Thursday afternoon. Winds will remain onshore and increase with stronger gusts around 20 knots. Stratus moves back into the Bay for MVFR conditions Thursday night.

SFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals . MVFR conditions throughout the TAF period as clouds are forecast to remain through Thursday. Winds are light, but will increase Thursday afternoon and be onshore with a few stronger gusts closer to the coast. Winds ease Thursday evening as cigs remain MVFR.

MARINE. as of 02:36 AM PDT Thursday . Northwest winds remain strong with occasional gusts near gale force strength over the northern outermost waters. These locally stronger winds will generate hazardous conditions for small craft vessels. A moderate locally generated northwest swell will prevail through the end of the week. A building southerly swell will move through the waters alongside the chance for rain this coming weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tday. SCA . Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA . Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 3 PM SCA . SF Bay



PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW AVIATION: DK MARINE: DK

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDXC1 4 mi73 min 50°F
PRYC1 - 9415020 - Point Reyes, CA 26 mi49 min 49°F1013.1 hPa
46214 - Point Reyes, CA (029) 36 mi53 min 49°F11 ft
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 44 mi29 min S 3.9 G 7.8 49°F9 ft1013.2 hPa
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 47 mi49 min 51°F6 ft
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 47 mi49 min S 8 G 13 51°F 57°F1013.4 hPa
TIBC1 - Tiburon Pier, San Francisco Bay, CA 47 mi68 min SSE 4.1 49°F 1013 hPa
DPXC1 - 9415141 - Davis Point, San Pablo Bay, CA 48 mi49 min SW 14 G 19 51°F 1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Point Reyes, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Sonoma County Airport, CA17 mi26 minSE 34.00 miOvercast with Haze48°F46°F93%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTS

Wind History from STS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS7S7S5SW5S9
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1 day agoS3SE33443N83S9N13
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2 days agoCalmCalmW64SW5S8S7S9S8SE10SE7S5S6CalmS63S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bodega Harbor entrance, California
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Bodega Harbor entrance
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Thu -- 02:13 AM PDT     2.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:14 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:26 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:25 AM PDT     4.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:23 PM PDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:56 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:55 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:13 PM PDT     4.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.82.62.73.13.74.24.64.54.13.32.31.30.60.20.20.81.62.63.64.34.74.64.1

Tide / Current Tables for Salt Point, California Current
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Salt Point
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Thu -- 03:28 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:16 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:04 AM PDT     0.61 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:27 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:48 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:56 AM PDT     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:57 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:47 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:52 PM PDT     1.02 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:57 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:05 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.20.20.50.60.50.3-0.1-0.6-1-1.1-1-0.7-0.40.10.60.910.90.60.1-0.5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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