Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Birdseye, IN

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Things are mostly quiet across the CWA at this hour, although we are seeing some light returns on radar, mainly across the southern and western CWA We're getting a slight uptick in the low level jet as the entrance region of an upper level impulse noses into the area.
This is providing just enough isentropic lift (evident on 300k analysis) to squeeze out some sprinkles and very light showers. T/Td spreads still remain pretty high on a lot of obs, so not expecting the better chances for measurable showers until later this morning into the day. By then, low level moisture and an overall higher PWAT airmass should be in place. We don't have a lot in the way of instability (MU CAPE < 500 J/KG) this morning, so expecting only showers. However, a few thunderstorms might be possible by this afternoon, especially west of I-65 where some modest instability values could develop. Overall, expecting only isolated to widely scattered coverage with many spots continuing to stay dry today.

Expect temps to be a couple/few degrees warmer than yesterday, but still a bit below normal for this time of year. Looking for highs mostly in the lower mid 80s. Low level moisture continues to push into the area tonight, and this combined with plenty of cloud cover should yield overnight lows quite a bit milder than previous nights.
Upper 60s and low 70s will be common. A few showers or a storm could persist through the overnight, especially across the southern CWA

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Sunday - Tuesday Night...

Heat and humidity take a notable jump on Sunday as the strong western and central CONUS ridge becomes more established to our west. Expecting afternoon highs to peak in the upper 80s to around 90 across the area, along with a notable jump in surface dewpoints to the low and mid 70s for most. The resulting max heat indices are expected to reach into the 95 to 100 degree range for some locations mainly along and west of I-65. Could take some folks off guard given the recent pleasant stretch of T/Tds we just had.

NW flow will continue over our region on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, however Sunday looks to be mostly void of any notable triggering features. The lack of a trigger combined with some capping between H85-H7 on soundings suggest we'll stay mostly dry through the day. This notion is backed up by current model data, and it is a good thing as we will be strongly unstable (3000-4000 J/KG of ML/SB CAPE).

The bigger storm concern focuses on later Sunday night through Monday night, and possibly again on Tuesday. Forecast data has been fairly consistent in suggesting that a convective complex or two could develop upstream and move through the NW flow pattern sometime in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe, although it has been inconsistent run to run with timing/placement, etc. It does appear that a series of shortwaves embedded within the NW flow aloft will trigger complexes up toward the western Great Lakes, and then ride SE on the NW flow pattern. Still don't have a lot of confidence on whether these complexes will impact our CWA or stay to the NE. Past experience has shown that a combination of 700-300mb mean wind combined with instability gradients can be a good way to determine cold pool driven MCS paths. Looks like we could easily have 4000+ J/KG of SB CAPE available across the entire Ohio River Valley region by Monday, however the sharp gradient evident on Sunday will be more broad and not well defined by Monday. As a result, expect the 700- 300 mb mean wind to be more of the driver of any cold pool driven forward propagating MCS in this particular scenario. This probably makes the more likely scenario that the bulk of MCS activity stays to our north and east, and only brings western portions of any convective complexes into play for us. That being said, a widespread damaging wind event is still a scenario that could occur and it still looks most likely across the NE half of the CWA sometime Monday-Tuesday.

Will have to keep our guard up and monitor hi-res CAM guidance over the next 48 hours as a severe threat will come into play if any of the convective complexes do end up impacting our area. Strong instability combined with plenty of deep layer shear (mainly driven by mid and upper level jet dynamics) would be capable of producing a wind damage threat, perhaps widespread wind damage if a good cold pool does get going upstream and forward propagates into our area.
Like the addition of our area to the SPC Outlooks as it is kinda of an all or nothing type of scenario to message. Just keep in mind that it is conditional.

If we do stay mostly dry into the early part of the week then the big story will end up being the heat and humidity. Talking about this 2nd since it is dependent on a convectively reinforced cold pool not diving in here and wrecking the temperature forecast. The current forecast calls for highs in the lower 90s both Monday and Tuesday. These values combined with dew points surging into the low and mid 70s could yield max heat indices up around 105 in some spots each afternoon. This would mainly be for area along and west of I- 65, and may need a Heat Advisory to cover this assuming we are able to stay more dry than not.

Wednesday - Friday...

NW flow aloft continues to persist over our area through mid to late week between the central/western CONUS ridge and the New England troughing. There is decent model agreement that we stay mostly dry during this time as the NW flow aloft doesn't look to harbor any embedded shortwaves. Still a bit early to be too confident, but for now it looks like the heat and humidity also back off a bit during this time. Highs look more around normal and mostly in the upper 80s during this stretch.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 629 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A few light showers have been noted near the HNB TAF site this morning. Some brief vis restrictions are possible there this morning, and again later this afternoon and evening. Outside of that, look for Bkn-Ovc mid clouds today with sporadic sprinkles and very light showers. All the TAF sites could see a brief bout of precipitation but coverage should be fairly low and vis likely won't be impacted much to include mention for now. Look for light S to SW winds through the period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.