Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Birdseye, IN

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 523 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Near Record Warmth and the Potential for Strong to Severe Storms...

A surface low and associated cold front currently stretching from Lake Huron to Nebraska will slowly drop southward and towards the Ohio River later today. Pressure gradient will gradually tighten up increasing our southwesterly winds. Winds will be sustained between 10-20 mph with gusts between 20-30 mph. This will advect in more moisture which will allow for dewpoints to climb into the upper 50s to near 60 later today and boost temperatures to near record levels, especially for Lexington and Frankfort. Highs will push into the low/mid 80s by the afternoon.

The other main impact for today is the risk for strong to severe storms later this evening. Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to highlight our northern CWA in a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for areas along and north of the I-64 corridor. This includes most of Southern IN and parts of northern KY. As the cold front drops south and approaches the Ohio River later this afternoon, lift associated with the front will develop showers and thunderstorms.

Model soundings continue to show steep mid-level lapse rates between 7.5-8 C/km and 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE along with effective bulk shear between 35-40kt. Which supports the potential for some discrete supercells as well as convective clusters closer to the approaching boundary. The main threats remain large hail and gusty winds but agree with the last forecaster that highlighted that the hail threat looks higher given the mid-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy supporting robust updrafts.

The main limiting factor for all this remains a capped stable layer this afternoon. While this warm layer aloft is expected to weaken as the boundary drops into the CWA, it most likely will keep the convection elevated. While it isn't zero, the overall tornado threat looks very low, especially if the convection remains elevated.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 523 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Cold front is expected to clear out of the area by Monday morning and behind it will be significant cool down compared to where we were the day prior. Canadian high pressure building in behind the front help to advect in colder air. After highs in the low/mid 80s highs will be in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s. We slowly start to rebound on Tuesday with temperatures warming into the 60s but it will be chilly to start with lows in the 30s. Weather looks to remain dry through the middle of the week.

Our next chance for showers looks to arrive with another cold front by Thursday with additional showers and thunderstorms. While we will see temperatures progressively warm back to near 80 by Thursday, the up and down nature of spring will result in cooler temperatures for Friday

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 228 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

The forecast starts with mainly clear skies with increasing winds out of the SW during the day. A cold front will approach from the north and could spark some showers/storms close to sunset for HNB/SDF to LEX after sunset. As the front moves through should see lowering CIG with MVFR flight categories before improving towards sunrise on Monday

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.