Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Birdseye, IN
July 3, 2024 1:31 AM EDT (05:31 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 9:16 PM Moonrise 2:56 AM Moonset 6:40 PM |
Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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FXUS63 KLMK 030453 AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1253 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Updated Aviation Discussion
KEY MESSAGES
* A heat advisory is in effect Wednesday afternoon and evening for areas primarily along and west of the I-65 corridor. Heat indices within the advisory area could be as high as 107 degrees.
* Unsettled weather expected Wednesday afternoon through Friday with daily chances of showers/storms. Strong storms will be possible each day with potential for isolated flash flooding.
Isolated damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and intense lightning will be the primary hazards.
UPDATE
Issued at 929 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Things are quiet across the CWA this evening with light S winds and mild temperatures ongoing. Overnight lows are expected to stay pretty mild tonight given surface wind staying up a bit and keeping the low levels a bit mixy. Some variable upper cloudiness later tonight could also help a bit. As a result, lows are only expected to settle in the 70s for most.
Some model data shows a few blips of QPF toward sunrise across our area, and although can't completely rule that out will elect to keep a dry forecast going as coverage would likely be less than 20% anyway. There is enough of a LLJ around that time to at least warrant raising the "silent" pops a bit. Still, values will be less than 10% for this forecast update.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Summertime temps and humidity are slowly making a return to the region today. Southerly return flow on the back side of a ~1025mb high centered near the Mid-Atlantic has helped to push temps well into the 80s and even some low 90s at this hour, with dewpoints climbing into the low 70s (southern KY) to ~60 (southern Indiana).
Despite a cu-field developing where dewpoints are higher, warmer air aloft has helped to suppress any sort of vertical convective development so storm chances should be near 0% for the remainder of the day.
Except for some passing high clouds, skies will clear out overnight.
The region will be on the outer fringes of a LLJ that will develop and stretch from the central Plains into the upper Ohio Valley, which will help to keep surface winds steady but generally light (<10kts). This will also result in overnight lows not falling to more typical climo values, and it's possible some urban areas could stay in the 80s for the majority of the overnight period.
The forecast for tomorrow is a bit complicated and will be heavily influenced by how convection evolves over the Midwest. Some high-res models indicate that a decaying line of showers/storms may push into the region tomorrow morning, leaving an outflow boundary lingering across portions of southern Indiana and/or central Kentucky for additional development later in the day. Additionally, a weak frontal boundary across southern IL into central IN will likely serve as a focus for more convective development tomorrow afternoon, and those showers/storms will likely drift into the region by late afternoon or early evening.
These showers and storms will be moving into an environment with marginal deep layer shear (20-30kts effective bulk shear) but modest instability and DCAPE to support wet microbursts in the stronger convection. Therefore, the greatest severe risk tomorrow will be damaging winds in the strongest storms. On top of the wind threat, PWATs will be quite high (>2") so torrential rainfall is likely in many of the showers/storms. The orientation of storm motions to the projected outflow/frontal boundaries do raise some concern, as they are nearly parallel which would result in localized training of storms that may drop several inches of rain in a short amount of time. Where these boundaries set up still remain a bit uncertain, and the scope of the threat doesn't look large enough to support a flood watch, but localized flash flooding does look possible in this setup.
Another concern going into tomorrow is heat potential. While the convective evolution and any potential clouds from leftover morning storms may limit or slow down heating during the day tomorrow, there is enough confidence to go with a heat advisory for portions of the CWA (mainly along and west of I-65) tomorrow afternoon. Confidence is lowest across the north where convection would have the greatest impact on temperatures.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Looking into the long-term, beginning Wednesday night, an upper high will cover the southeastern US while a shallow upper trough, centered over the Rockies, directs west-southwest flow from the Central Plains towards New England. This places southern Indiana and central Kentucky in the area in-between the main flow and the high to the south. This also lines up with where a southwest to northeast or west to east oriented front will be located, and with surface high pressure sitting just off the Atlantic Coast, lots of Atlantic and Gulf moisture will be funneled up the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, into the CWA and along the front. This front will sit near or over the CWA until the upper trough begins to amplify and generates a cold front that pushes east across the Lower Ohio Valley Friday afternoon.
Timing is still impossible to lockdown, but don't think the period will be a total washout. Currently, it looks like Wednesday night into Thursday morning could be more active with a break sometime on Thursday before the heating of the warm air mass causes more convection to develop during the afternoon and evening hours. Expect isolated to scattered storms for period before the passage of the cold front on Friday, but it's not going to non-stop rain. It's summer time convection. There will be winners and losers.
Precipitable water values could increase up to around 3" along this front, according to the NAM. Most of the ensembles have this values around 2.25" spread out over a larger area, and some of the global models are sitting a little higher than the ensembles. Generally, north of the front to near Indianapolis values tend to be higher than south of the front. PWATs over 2" could cover Indiana up to around Indianapolis while south of the front, PWATs drop off quicker, but not by much. PWATs could still be around 1.8" or so near Clinton County, and when PWATs are over 2" around here, it doesn't take much to be concerned with intense rainfall. 3" PWATs are unheard of, so if this materializes and depending on where the front sets up, we could see some areas of flash flooding or at least ponding of water.
The severe threat appears to be limited. During Thursday and Friday, models soundings show deep saturation with lots of "long skinny CAPE", and with temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 for highs, believe heavy rainfall will be the main concern. MLCAPE values are slightly over 1,000 J/kg. Some gusty winds with isolated to scattered storms will be possible, but with the likelihood of precipitation riding along the front from west to east, the risk of training convection concerns me more than the wind threat.
In general believe this system has trended farther south towards the Interstate 64 corridor. Yesterday, it appeared more of the activity would be slight farther to the north over south-central Indiana.
Behind the front, high pressure will bring mostly clear skies with lower dew points in the mid 60s. With temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90, this will feel slightly better.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1252 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
The pre-dawn hours will be quiet with mostly clear skies and a light breeze out of the south. A low level jet is expected to develop from BNA to CMH but should remain weak enough to stay below LLWS threshold.
Today will be a hot and muggy day as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Scattered summertime thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon and continue into tonight. Very heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible with the storms.
Confidence is low in the exact location of convection, but high enough to include PRO30s at all sites, and went ahead with a VCTS at SDF late tonight as the front approaches the Ohio River. Winds may be somewhat chaotic tonight with thunderstorms and various outflow boundaries.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...Heat Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for KYZ023>031-034-038-045- 053-061>063-070>074.
IN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ076>078-083-084- 089>092.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1253 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Updated Aviation Discussion
KEY MESSAGES
* A heat advisory is in effect Wednesday afternoon and evening for areas primarily along and west of the I-65 corridor. Heat indices within the advisory area could be as high as 107 degrees.
* Unsettled weather expected Wednesday afternoon through Friday with daily chances of showers/storms. Strong storms will be possible each day with potential for isolated flash flooding.
Isolated damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and intense lightning will be the primary hazards.
UPDATE
Issued at 929 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Things are quiet across the CWA this evening with light S winds and mild temperatures ongoing. Overnight lows are expected to stay pretty mild tonight given surface wind staying up a bit and keeping the low levels a bit mixy. Some variable upper cloudiness later tonight could also help a bit. As a result, lows are only expected to settle in the 70s for most.
Some model data shows a few blips of QPF toward sunrise across our area, and although can't completely rule that out will elect to keep a dry forecast going as coverage would likely be less than 20% anyway. There is enough of a LLJ around that time to at least warrant raising the "silent" pops a bit. Still, values will be less than 10% for this forecast update.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Summertime temps and humidity are slowly making a return to the region today. Southerly return flow on the back side of a ~1025mb high centered near the Mid-Atlantic has helped to push temps well into the 80s and even some low 90s at this hour, with dewpoints climbing into the low 70s (southern KY) to ~60 (southern Indiana).
Despite a cu-field developing where dewpoints are higher, warmer air aloft has helped to suppress any sort of vertical convective development so storm chances should be near 0% for the remainder of the day.
Except for some passing high clouds, skies will clear out overnight.
The region will be on the outer fringes of a LLJ that will develop and stretch from the central Plains into the upper Ohio Valley, which will help to keep surface winds steady but generally light (<10kts). This will also result in overnight lows not falling to more typical climo values, and it's possible some urban areas could stay in the 80s for the majority of the overnight period.
The forecast for tomorrow is a bit complicated and will be heavily influenced by how convection evolves over the Midwest. Some high-res models indicate that a decaying line of showers/storms may push into the region tomorrow morning, leaving an outflow boundary lingering across portions of southern Indiana and/or central Kentucky for additional development later in the day. Additionally, a weak frontal boundary across southern IL into central IN will likely serve as a focus for more convective development tomorrow afternoon, and those showers/storms will likely drift into the region by late afternoon or early evening.
These showers and storms will be moving into an environment with marginal deep layer shear (20-30kts effective bulk shear) but modest instability and DCAPE to support wet microbursts in the stronger convection. Therefore, the greatest severe risk tomorrow will be damaging winds in the strongest storms. On top of the wind threat, PWATs will be quite high (>2") so torrential rainfall is likely in many of the showers/storms. The orientation of storm motions to the projected outflow/frontal boundaries do raise some concern, as they are nearly parallel which would result in localized training of storms that may drop several inches of rain in a short amount of time. Where these boundaries set up still remain a bit uncertain, and the scope of the threat doesn't look large enough to support a flood watch, but localized flash flooding does look possible in this setup.
Another concern going into tomorrow is heat potential. While the convective evolution and any potential clouds from leftover morning storms may limit or slow down heating during the day tomorrow, there is enough confidence to go with a heat advisory for portions of the CWA (mainly along and west of I-65) tomorrow afternoon. Confidence is lowest across the north where convection would have the greatest impact on temperatures.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Looking into the long-term, beginning Wednesday night, an upper high will cover the southeastern US while a shallow upper trough, centered over the Rockies, directs west-southwest flow from the Central Plains towards New England. This places southern Indiana and central Kentucky in the area in-between the main flow and the high to the south. This also lines up with where a southwest to northeast or west to east oriented front will be located, and with surface high pressure sitting just off the Atlantic Coast, lots of Atlantic and Gulf moisture will be funneled up the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, into the CWA and along the front. This front will sit near or over the CWA until the upper trough begins to amplify and generates a cold front that pushes east across the Lower Ohio Valley Friday afternoon.
Timing is still impossible to lockdown, but don't think the period will be a total washout. Currently, it looks like Wednesday night into Thursday morning could be more active with a break sometime on Thursday before the heating of the warm air mass causes more convection to develop during the afternoon and evening hours. Expect isolated to scattered storms for period before the passage of the cold front on Friday, but it's not going to non-stop rain. It's summer time convection. There will be winners and losers.
Precipitable water values could increase up to around 3" along this front, according to the NAM. Most of the ensembles have this values around 2.25" spread out over a larger area, and some of the global models are sitting a little higher than the ensembles. Generally, north of the front to near Indianapolis values tend to be higher than south of the front. PWATs over 2" could cover Indiana up to around Indianapolis while south of the front, PWATs drop off quicker, but not by much. PWATs could still be around 1.8" or so near Clinton County, and when PWATs are over 2" around here, it doesn't take much to be concerned with intense rainfall. 3" PWATs are unheard of, so if this materializes and depending on where the front sets up, we could see some areas of flash flooding or at least ponding of water.
The severe threat appears to be limited. During Thursday and Friday, models soundings show deep saturation with lots of "long skinny CAPE", and with temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 for highs, believe heavy rainfall will be the main concern. MLCAPE values are slightly over 1,000 J/kg. Some gusty winds with isolated to scattered storms will be possible, but with the likelihood of precipitation riding along the front from west to east, the risk of training convection concerns me more than the wind threat.
In general believe this system has trended farther south towards the Interstate 64 corridor. Yesterday, it appeared more of the activity would be slight farther to the north over south-central Indiana.
Behind the front, high pressure will bring mostly clear skies with lower dew points in the mid 60s. With temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90, this will feel slightly better.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1252 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
The pre-dawn hours will be quiet with mostly clear skies and a light breeze out of the south. A low level jet is expected to develop from BNA to CMH but should remain weak enough to stay below LLWS threshold.
Today will be a hot and muggy day as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Scattered summertime thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon and continue into tonight. Very heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible with the storms.
Confidence is low in the exact location of convection, but high enough to include PRO30s at all sites, and went ahead with a VCTS at SDF late tonight as the front approaches the Ohio River. Winds may be somewhat chaotic tonight with thunderstorms and various outflow boundaries.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...Heat Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for KYZ023>031-034-038-045- 053-061>063-070>074.
IN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ076>078-083-084- 089>092.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KHNB
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KHNB
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KHNB
Wind History graph: HNB
(wind in knots)
Louisville, KY,
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