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FXUS63 KLMK 031914 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 314 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Short Term
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Short term forecast is beginning to sound a bit like a broken record given persistent upper level ridging resulting in dry, warm conditions for the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. We have slightly higher amounts of low level moisture in the atmosphere today compared to the last couple of days, which has resulted in a more widespread cu- field across central Kentucky and portions of southern Indiana. But strong capping will keep the cu-field from exhibiting much vertical growth for needed rainfall.

Skies will clear out with the setting sun initially, though we are likely to see some high-level clouds drift in from the west overnight. Winds will stay light to calm, and with dry air in place, expect another cool night with morning lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. River-Valley fog may be possible east of I-65 as well.

The high level clouds will continue to stream in from the west during the day tomorrow, though it won't stop temperatures from rising to well above climo normals. With slightly stronger SW flow through the low/mid levels, expect afternoon highs to rise into the mid/upper 80s.

Long Term
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Wednesday night, an upper trough, centered over the CONUS, will continue pushing a couple of cold fronts, near Missouri, towards the Lower Ohio Valley. This will increase cloud cover during the overnight hours, and with some light WAA on south-southwest winds, temperatures are expected to remain mild in the low to mid 60s.
Ahead of the front, rain chances will begin to push into the area Thursday morning before slowly spreading eastward over the rest of the CWA by Thursday night. There is a coupe hundred joules per kilogram of CAPE under 700mb at which point a inversion will limit convective growth, so expect a widespread light rain event.
Precipitable water values have trended up slightly over multiple models in the last 24 hours. Values are in the 1.5 - 1.6" range.
Overall rainfall totals through Friday are expected to be between 0.1 - 0.6", so this isn't expected to be a washout. The heaviest rain will likely fall Thursday night. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the mid 70s to low 80s with cooler temperatures to the west and warmer to the east.

Behind the leading front and heaviest precipitation, southerly surface flow will keep temperatures near 60 across the CWA. Some light rain/drizzle will remain possible before a reinforcing cold front arrives near sunrise Friday morning. This will bring gusty 20 mph northwest winds to the CWA as the upper ridge pushes a surface high south-southeast through the Plains. Temperatures on Friday will be limited to the mid 70s, but as skies clear and CAA continues, high temperatures will only reach to near 60 on Saturday and Sunday.
Low temperatures Saturday and Sunday night are expected to dip into the upper 30s to low 40s. As the aforementioned surface high slides east across the Gulf States, winds will back towards the southwest.
High temperatures will recover to near 70 by Tuesday.

Aviation
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 106 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

VFR conditions expected through the majority of the forecast period with light winds and mostly clear skies. Only chance for sub-VFR cigs will be across BWG where patchy morning fog could briefly drop visibilities below 6 miles near sunrise tomorrow.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
KY...None.

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