Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Birdseye, IN

UPDATE
Issued at 939 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

Temps have dropped to within a few degrees of forecast mins, but return flow is well established and sfc winds remain fairly mixy.
Expect status quo or even a slight increase in wind speeds overnight as the westerly low-level jet sets up, even though it won't fully mix down to the sfc. Sct-bkn cirrus over central Illinois and Indiana could edge as far southward as the I-65 corridor, but the mixed boundary layer will be the bigger deal in maintaining nearly steady temps through the night. No changes to the going forecast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 254 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

Broad sfc high pressure has kept clear skies across our area again today, with temps close to 50 in the west, and slightly cooler to our north and east. We'll continue with a dry forecast for this evening and into the overnight, with the sfc high centered over the southeastern US providing a steady southwesterly sfc flow and weak WAA regime.

For tonight, clear skies are expected as our atmospheric column remains rather dry. However, a 45+kt LLJ will be rounding the base of a sfc low that will be pivoting across the northern Great Lakes tonight. The core of the LLJ will be focused over portions of northern Indiana and Ohio, and strong nocturnal inversion will keep us decoupled and prevent any of these higher winds from mixing down to the sfc. We'll still have weak WAA as sfc winds will be from the southwest, and as a result our overnight temps will not be as cold.
Forecast mins in the 30s, with some locations possibly remaining above or near the freezing mark.

For tomorrow, dry conditions will continue through much of the day, and temperatures will be trending warmer as well. Our southwesterly flow and WAA ramps up tomorrow ahead of an approaching shortwave and associated low pressure system that will be ejecting out of the southwestern US. We'll start off sunny tomorrow, but clouds will be increasing from the southwest to the northeast throughout the day.
With the WAA in place, our temps will be several degrees above normal, with readings in the mid to upper 50s. Low end rain chances will begin to filter into our far southwestern corner of the forecast area by late afternoon as moisture transport increases, but the best rain chances will arrive in the Long Term period.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 254 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

Sunday Night through Wednesday Night...

Latest suite of model guidance continues to support the ongoing forecast of widespread rainfall for our area Sunday evening into Monday. A strong low-level jet axis of 40-50kts will transport rich Gulf air into the region with PWAT values approaching 1.25 inches.
Overall, a good soaker of a system is on tap for the area with decent amount of rainfall. Rainfall will exhibit a gradient across the region with southern Indiana seeing a half to one inch of rainfall. Across Kentucky, a solid 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is expected with the heaviest totals SE of a line from Bowling Green to Somerset. Instability remains pretty much non-existent, so thunderstorms will not be added to the forecast. Lows Sunday night will be in the mid-upper 40s.

Early Monday rainfall is still expected, but this activity is expected to move off to the northeast Monday morning with much of the day Monday being fairly dry. Highs on the day will be in the upper 50s across southern IN and the northern half of KY. Across southern KY, temps are expected to reach the lower 60s. Scattered showers are expected across the region Monday night with lows ranging from the upper 30s over southern Indiana to the mid-upper 40s over southern KY.

As we head into Tuesday, the upper level pattern is forecast to amplify significantly with another surface low moving northeast through the Ohio Valley. The upper trough looks to fully phase with the southern stream a bit east of the MS River, which makes sense given that the MJO is in phase 5. The net result in terms of sensible weather will be another day of rain showers with a cold front pushing through the region Tuesday night. Highs ahead of the front will be in the upper 40s to the lower 50s across southern IN and northern KY, across southern/southeastern KY, highs may spike into the upper 50s to near 60. With the cold front pushing through Tuesday temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 20s/lower 30s Tuesday night. Lingering precipitation behind the front probably will end as a period of snow showers Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Current thinking is that we'll be hard pressed to get much in the way of accumulation back in the I-65 corridor, though some minor accumulation may occur out east of I-75.

Wednesday will likely be a cold and raw day with northwesterly winds blowing along with scattered snow flurries about. Highs will be in the mid 30s for most locations north of the Cumberland Parkway.
South of the Cumberland Parkway, we could see upper 30s to near 40 for highs. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper teens to lower 20s.

Thursday through Saturday...

The remainder of the long term period continues to look quiet as we will remain in a post frontal, cold cyclonic flow. A weak perturbation may work through Thursday afternoon/eve with some snow showers/flurries. After that, the flow becomes more zonal as the upper trough lifts out. Friday continues to look rather quiet as of this writing, but another upper wave/surface boundary looks to push into the region by Saturday/Saturday night.

Highs Thursday will be in the upper 30s to around 40, with overnight lows lower-mid 20s. Highs Friday should moderate a bit into the mid- upper 40s with highs on Saturday warming back into the upper 40s to near 50.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 631 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

VFR conditions tonight and most of Sunday, with steady or increasing SW winds and return flow increases. Mainly a LLWS forecast as the low-level jet cranks up from the WSW early this evening, with a strong nocturnal inversion to focus the wind shear at the top of the boundary layer.

Skies will stay mostly clear until early afternoon when a better moisture feed comes into play. Expect stratus ceilings to develop quickly, but bases will be VFR at least initially, if only just barely so. Could see a fairly gradual lowering and thickening of the cloud deck, with BWG and SDF going MVFR toward the end of the afternoon as we continue to saturate and precip breaks out. Precip chances at the other terminals is likely to hold off a few hrs beyond the end of the TAF period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.