Birdseye, IN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Birdseye, IN

April 16, 2024 6:22 AM EDT (10:22 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:07 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM
Moonrise 12:33 PM   Moonset 2:56 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Birdseye, IN
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Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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FXUS63 KLMK 160829 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 429 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight through Wednesday night. The severe threat tonight into Wednesday morning looks low, with the greater severe threat expected Wednesday late morning into the afternoon and evening.

* Thursday night could carry another severe threat.

* Significant cool-down appears increasingly likely this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Convective activity from earlier tonight has pretty much shut down, although will occasionally see a few blips on radar along the warm frontal boundary. This feature is currently draped in a WNW to ESE orientation from roughly HNB down through LEX, and is expected to slowly move northeastward to northern IL, central IN, and southern OH by early to mid afternoon. Will keep some low chance pops across our north through the morning to account. By midday, we'll be placed more solidly in the warm sector with steady to occasionally gusty S winds taking hold by late morning. Overall, the gustiness may be held a bit in check by fairly prominent mid and upper sky cover until early afternoon, however a break in that sky cover is expected through the peak heating hours, where temps are expected to surge into the low 80s for many. Gustiness should peak during this stretch with 20 to 25 mph expected to be common.

Later this evening, a convective complex is expected ahead of an approaching cold front and should move into our western CWA between 8 and 11 PM EDT. From there, elevated convection is expected to move eastward across our CWA Not much change in the thinking with this overnight convection as low level stability should mitigate larger concerns for a severe threat. In addition to soundings showing the stable layer in place, the latest HRRR probabilities for any notable ML CAPE values stays at 0% until right around sunrise in our far NW CWA So, pretty high confidence in any convection staying elevated and the severe threat staying low. As previous forecasts have noted, the overall shear profile will be quite high, and thus there is some hesitation to completely rule out an isolated instance, but overall not really concerned. SPC kept a Marginal risk for part of our region, and think the best chance for any issues would be right before sunrise across our NW CWA as those 40-50% probabilities for around 500 J/KG of ML CAPE work into the area.

Some notable changes to the Wednesday forecast as confidence in severe weather potential has lowered. Morning convection should continue to push across our eastern CWA, well ahead of the trailing cold front that will likely hang up just to our NW. Forecast soundings through the afternoon show a pretty strong inversion just below 700 mb, and recent runs of data have kept much of the convective activity to our north across central IN into OH. Some data does support convective activity along and north of the Ohio River closest to the strongest forcing, which is also where SPC has trimmed the Slight Risk significantly to just cover that area. Like the idea of leaving the Marginal risk over the rest of the CWA for the time being because the overall shear profile would still remain quite favorable for some supercell storm modes if convection were to fire, so don't want to completely let the guard down yet. However, current data appears to make it difficult for any parcels to reach their LFC given the inversion, at least across the southern 2/3 of our CWA The bottom line here is that if the inversion does end up as strong as currently advertised, then we might dodge a bullet for much of our CWA That being said, can't let our guard down yet as the inversion is the only limiting factor to what would otherwise be a favorable environment for severe convection and likely some supercell storm modes. Stay up to date of the latest forecasts over the next 24 to 36 hours.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 409 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Synopsis...The medium range period will start by featuring Midwest shortwave energy merging into a broad upper-level low over southern Canada/northern Plains while positive upper height anomalies will be found across the rest of the CONUS. The aforementioned upper-level low will slowly move east the rest of the week, allowing associated shortwave energy/mid-level jet to push a cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday morning. For the weekend, strong zonal flow aloft will continue over the region as the Canadian upper low ejects to the northeast and shortwave energy stream through the Great Lakes. At the surface, however, high pressure over the Plains will usher in a cooler and more stable airmass. Then, mid-level pattern amplification is anticipated for the beginning of next week as Pacific shortwave energy punches through a West Coast ridge and moves into the Central US possibly phasing with East Coast trough.

Model Evaluation/Confidence...There is good model agreement between deterministic model guidance regarding the large-scale pattern evolution through next week. There are, however, a couple of instances where models have shown certain degree of variability that introduces lower confidence in the forecast. First one is associated with the frontal passage Thursday night into Friday morning and the position of a potential secondary surface low over the lower Ohio Valley. Mos of the guidance (CMC/ECMWF/GFDL SHIELD/NAM) have the surface low forming north of the Ohio River while the latest GFS prompts it through KY. This could ultimately influence the convective storm mode and the degree of mesoscale forcing. The second one involves the pattern amplification early next week, the timing of the frontal passage and overall precipitation coverage.

Wed Night- Thursday...Rainfall and storm chances will be decreasing through the night as dry air and low-level subsidence approach the area behind the frontal wave. Thursday will start off dry with winds quickly backing to the south pumping warm air advection to the area.
Depending on intensity, coverage, and duration of convection from Wednesday, temperatures (lows and highs) might end up being a few degrees warmer. Precipitation chances will increase from west to east late in the afternoon as the next front approaches the region.

Thu Night - Friday...Another active period is expected Thursday night into Friday morning as strong to marginally severe storms might accompany the frontal passage. Based on consulted hi-res guidance (NAM/GFDL Shield/RGEM), the strongest storms should move across the area between 19/0 to 19/6Z arrange along a decaying line of convection as instability will be dwindling farther east. Latest SPC outlook highlights a Marginal risk of severe weather for the entire CWA with Slight delineation in the western edge of the CWA
Main weather hazard with this overnight activity will be isolated straight-line winds. Rest of the day will be mostly cloudy with lingering showers and gusty northerly winds. Moderate cold air advection will account for highs in the 60s.

Weekend...Cold air advection regime will continue during the weekend given persistence of breezy northerly winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies. However, rain chances should decrease significantly as surface high pressure will advect a subsaturated airmass in the low levels.

Next Week...Monday should be dry and sunny with warming temperatures. Although there is uncertainty on the track of the shortwave and potential interactions with northern-stream trough, a weak cold front appears to arrive on Tuesday or Wednesday raising precipitation chances. Severe weather does not appear possible at the moment given the lack of instability.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Convective activity has diminished across the region at this hour, and looking for a quiet remainder of the overnight into the rest of the day. Looking for generally light SE winds to take hold early this morning once remnant outflow boundaries settle down. Ceilings will be VFR with Sct-Bkn mid and upper clouds.

By mid to late morning, look for stronger S winds to take hold in the 10 to 15 mph range, gusting up around 20 to 25 mph at times.
Variable mid and upper cloudiness could hurt the gust potential, but any breaks in the clouds should allow for the gustiness to increase.

Steady to occasionally gusty winds could last into later Tuesday night early Wednesday morning, along with the arrival of some showers and storms expected. Ceilings should stay VFR through the first half of the night, although any shower or storm could reduce vis below VFR thresholds.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFRH FRENCH LICK MUNI,IN 10 sm7 mincalm10 smOvercast64°F64°F100%29.99
KHNB HUNTINGBURG,IN 15 sm26 mincalmOvercast68°F64°F88%29.98
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Louisville, KY,



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