Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Birdseye, IN

UPDATE
Issued at 713 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Storms that moved over the bootheel of Missouri dissipated as they entered into western Kentucky. These remaining showers are drifting over central Kentucky currently. Prior to these showers a broken Cu field developed over the region. Some of these clouds were able to develop showers or even isolated storms. Storms try to grow, however they are limited by the capping. Looking at the most recent ACARS sounding, there is a stout cap. General expectation for the remainder of the night is that this capping will prevent storms from maturing.
If a storm is able to break the cap, it would have access to ample ingredients for a severe storm with hail and wind hazards. With large DCAPE values, could see some gusty showers. Will continue to monitor and update as needed.

Have decreased the thunder chances in the grids given current trends.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 352 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

So far this afternoon, a summer-like air mass has spread into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys as temperatures are in the low-to-mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The surge in temperatures and moisture has come from deep southwest flow between a negatively-tilted trough which is morphing into a closed low over the Red River Valley of the North and ridging over the southeast US.
Pressure falls to the north and west of the region have resulted in breezy S/SW winds this afternoon, and 20-25 mph gusts should continue into this evening.

A very active stretch of weather is expected over the next 36 hours as the upper level disturbance to the northwest moves to the east.
This afternoon and evening, our first chance of strong to severe storms will come from an ongoing cluster of cells over northern AR and southern MO. As these storms move to the east, they should encounter an increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic profile for sfc- based convection, and should also outrun the best forcing which will be near the sfc cold/occluded front and upper-level jet core over the mid- and upper-MS valley. Latest ACARS soundings show a warm capping layer between 850-700 mb, with surface-based LFCs up around the 700 mb level. However, the cluster of cells to our west could sustain itself if it develops a strong cold pool which could lift otherwise capped parcels to the LFC, and DCAPE ahead of the ongoing storms is fairly high (800-1200 J/kg). An elevated mixed layer atop the capping inversion has 8.5-9 degree C/km lapse rates within it, and a pool of around 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE would be available to parcels which break the cap. Would expect damaging winds and large hail to be the main threats with any storms this evening, and even if storms dissipate, gusty winds from the decaying cold pool/outflow would still be possible. This evening's threat should move quickly through the area between around 7 PM and midnight EDT.

There should be a few hours of a lull in convective activity during the late evening and early overnight hours, though hi-res guidance shows another wave of storms trying to develop between 2-4 AM EDT.
These storms are likely developing as a mid-level jet exit region noses across the lower Ohio Valley. Sounding profiles show continued instability aloft, though there should be a considerable amount of stability within the boundary. Accordingly, would expect mainly elevated storms late tonight into early Friday morning, with large hail as the primary threat. Any convection which develops should move off to the east and dissipate a few hours after sunrise Friday, and another lull is expected Friday morning.

Any lull in convective activity Friday morning will give the atmosphere a chance to reload, resulting in instability and shear parameters which should be even more favorable for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening. As the upper closed low over the upper Midwest pivots to the east on Friday, troughing over the mid-MS valley should amplify, with height falls taking place over the region during the afternoon and evening hours. Near the sfc, increasing south-southwest flow should send a convectively-enhanced frontal boundary northward through the area tomorrow, with temperatures recovering into the mid 80s and dewpoints rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s. This should support MLCAPE values on the order of 2500-3500 J/kg, sufficient for explosive convection Friday afternoon and evening. Deep-layer shear on the order of 55-60 kts will help with storm organization Friday afternoon and evening, and a combination of discrete cells and bowing segments would be expected. Hi-res guidance has been fairly consistent in showing storms growing upscale into one or several large bowing lines, and DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg support SPC's wind probabilities driving the moderate risk for tomorrow. Mid-level lapse rates will still be around 7.5 degrees C/km tomorrow afternoon, so the large hail threat will be supported if/while cells remain somewhat discrete. Looking at the hodograph and low-level shear profiles, while there is some curvature in the low-level wind field, relatively veered near-sfc winds will limit storm-relative helicity values. With this being said, any supercells which may develop would have an increased threat to produce strong tornadoes, and it is also possible that spin-ups could develop along the leading edge of any MCS/QLCS structures.

Multiple waves of storms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, with storm coverage gradually winding down and pushing into eastern KY after midnight Friday night. All in all, the instability and shear parameters in place (especially tomorrow) support a significant severe weather event across the Ohio Valley. Make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings and a plan in place should a warning be issued tonight through tomorrow night!

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 352 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

By Saturday morning, the actual cold front will be pushing through the area with most of the showers and storms exiting to our east.
The associated upper low will be over the Great Lakes with the longwave trough axis extending south over the OH and TN Valleys before flattening out against the subtropical ridge over the Gulf.
Weak CAA behind the front will result in climatological normal temperatures for the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s accompanied by breezy WSW winds on Saturday. Overall, most will experience a fair weather weekend.

Southern KY will see a slight chance of showers on Sunday as the southern edge of the new airmass begins to lift northward due to the next low pressure system strengthening over the Central Plains. This will begin another period of unsettled weather as we enter the beginning of the new work week.

By Monday, a warm front will begin lifting across the region resulting in warm and moist air advection, as PWATs surge into the upper percentiles of SPC's sounding climatology. Models tend to agree on convection from our west moving into our area by Monday morning with another round Monday evening. The warm front appears to stall over the region, prolonging our shower and storm chances into Tuesday and Wednesday before the occluded low pushes through on Wednesday. With model soundings advertising sufficient instability and ML guidance also showing enhanced severe probabilities, severe weather can not be ruled out. Details remain hazy this far out, but will continue to monitor closely with subsequent forecast packages.
Stay tuned.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 751 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Weakening SHRA/isolated TSRA has been moving east over the Lower OH Valley this evening. Storm updrafts have really struggled in the presence of a strong capping inversion in the 800-700 mb layer. It looks like BWG will get some initial SHRA early in the period, but confidence in TSRA is quite low this evening. An early morning wave of convection has a better shot at bringing brief TSRA impacts early Friday morning, and the most likely timing is reflected in the TAF.
Otherwise, continued gusty SW winds will be possible this evening as showers attempt to spread into the region.

Severe storms appear most likely Friday evening, especially after 21- 22Z. Confidence in strong to severe storms is highest for the Friday evening convection.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.