Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stafford Courthouse, VA

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Hot weather returns through the weekend with some increase in shower and thunderstorm chances.

- 2) Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of a cold front early next week, before warmer temperatures return mid- week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot weather returns through the weekend with some increase in shower and thunderstorm chances.

High clouds remain in the picture into tonight with weak southerly gradients persisting. The net results will favor a milder night ahead with low temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s. After a few cooler nights with high pressure in place, this eventually brings temperatures to above average for early June.

Weekend temperatures will be the hot side as daily readings again push into the low 90s. While the populated forecast favored something closer to the mid 90s, this was a tad too high relative to statistical guidance. Made such adjustments given the high bias coupled with the increase in cloud cover. For the time of year, humidity levels remain subdued as winds will have some downslope component to them. The boundary layer should be well mixed which will yield gusts to around 15 to 25 mph during the afternoon hours.

Saturday also presents changing conditions as a shortwave trough pushes across southern Ontario into New England. Ahead of the attendant cold front, high-resolution models break out convection over the Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. A severe weather risk accompanies this system with a Slight Risk currently extending from the Ohio Valley across the Mason-Dixon Line and into southern New England. Given large dewpoint depressions underneath the high cloud bases, ample downdraft CAPE will support a damaging wind signature. Additionally, the northwesterly flow aloft will steepen mid-level lapse rates enough to bring some signature of large hail. The highest confidence would be north of I-68/I-70, with most high- resolution models showing activity decaying with southward extent. Have slightly bumped up shower chances toward U.S. 50, but chances still remain on the lower end. The cold front is slated to cross the area midday Sunday with winds shifting to northwesterly in the wake. Any convective threat shifts toward the I-64 corridor eastward into far southern Maryland. Off to the north, expect mostly sunny skies as high pressure builds to the north.

Heading into Sunday night, winds turn more northeasterly as the cold front settles into North Carolina. Forecast lows drop into the 60s, with mid/upper 50s over mountain locations. Any clouds likely linger across I-64 back across the Potomac Highlands.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of a cold front early next week, before warmer temperatures return mid-week.

As upper level troughing pivots offshore, surface high pressure centered over New England builds over the region bringing cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Highs on Monday will be in the 80s for most with higher elevations staying in the mid to upper 70s.
Overnight low temperatures will drop into the 50s and 60s.
Temperatures continue to cool slightly with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 80s (70s mtns).

Upper level ridging begins building over the east coast Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures beginning to gradually warming. High temperatures will be in the 90s for most on Thursday. In addition to increasing temperatures, relative humidity values are expected to increase leading to heat indices in the mid 90s on Thursday. Hot and humid conditions yield daily shower and thunderstorm chances beginning Wednesday, although limited shear will keep severe chances low.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions are likely at all terminals through Saturday afternoon as high pressure gradually departs off the Atlantic coast. Winds are somewhat variable before turning more southwesterly on Saturday. Given decent vertical mixing, gusts up to 20 knots are possible, especially during the afternoon hours. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Saturday evening, with KMRB seeing the most likely chance for restrictions. Further south, high-resolution models depict a weakening trend into the night.

Winds shift to northwesterly behind the front midday Sunday with any convective chances mainly near KCHO. High pressure building to the north will yield mainly north to northeasterly winds into Sunday with continued VFR conditions.

VFR conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday with surface high pressure building over the terminals. Winds remain light blowing 5 to 10 knots each day with northeast winds on Monday shifting to south on Tuesday.

MARINE
Winds over the waters have started to drop quickly early this evening, thus the SCA over the middle bay will likely be cancelled early. After that, winds remain around 5-10 knots through tonight.

Another ramp up is again possible early Saturday evening into the early overnight period in response to additional channeling effects. This appears to be more brief in nature. A cold front approaches from the northwest overnight into Sunday morning. A few stronger storms could reach the upper Chesapeake Bay waters on Saturday evening. The convective threat does diminish from north to south. Behind the cold front, winds turn northwesterly before becoming northerly on Sunday night.

In the wake of a cold front, winds shift to easterly on Monday.
Winds increase, gusting 15 to 20 knots with Advisories likely in the southern portions of the waters. Winds shift to southerly in Tuesday with additional Small Craft advisories possible.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.