Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Aquia Harbour, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:35PM Thursday April 2, 2020 12:29 PM EDT (16:29 UTC) Moonrise 12:15PMMoonset 2:27AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1039 Am Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Rest of today..NW winds 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt... Increasing to 30 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1039 Am Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will loop over the northwestern atlantic ocean through Friday. High pressure will gradually build in from the midwest through the weekend. A cold front will follow Sunday night, then stall nearby before returning north as a warm front early next week. Small craft advisories may need to be extended into Friday evening for portions of the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aquia Harbour CDP, VA
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location: 38.42, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 021412 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1012 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will loop over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean through Friday. High pressure will gradually build in from the Midwest through the weekend. A cold front will follow Sunday night, then stall nearby before returning north as a warm front early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A large and deep area of low pressure will be the main driver of the weather locally today, despite its location several hundred miles offshore. A thin scattered (to perhaps broken) deck of stratocumulus clouds will likely develop today over northern Virginia and central Maryland closer to the low, with a mostly sunny start becoming partly sunny for a time this afternoon. Elsewhere, mainly sunny skies should prevail.

Northwesterly winds will gust 30 to 35 MPH at times today. 850 mb temperatures around 0 C with steep low-level lapse rates and downsloping flow should result in highs of 55-60 F, perhaps a touch warmer over central Virginia. May need to nudge temperatures up a little based on trends this morning, but otherwise the forecast is in good shape.

Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity dropping to ~30- 35% this afternoon could result in some enhanced potential for fire spread, but recent rainfall likely keeps the threat marginal for most of the area.

Gusty winds and dry conditions will continue overnight with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Dry and breezy conditions are expected on Friday. Clouds will increase further Friday evening as the spiraling offshore low makes its closest approach. A few high resolution models develop a few showers over portions of northeastern Maryland and near the Chesapeake Bay, but would rather defer to later forecasts before including any rain chances given dry northwesterly winds.

The low will move out to sea Saturday leaving lighter winds and warmer temperatures in its wake. Clouds will increase Saturday night in advance of a cold front approaching from the Midwest.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. There will be a ridge axis overhead Sunday that global models hold through Monday. A weakening front may bring a few showers Sunday with only trace or light rainfall amounts. Heights aloft will begin to fall during the middle and second half of next week as very deep upper low for this time of the year evolves over the region south of James Bay. Lots of spread shown amongst the global models with amplitude, placement, and timing of the associated trof axis moving through the local area. Expect a cooling trend, potentially significant with potential for freeze, toward the end of next week if the more amplified Euro solution pans out. Given the more dominant northern stream, don't expect a lot precip with the associated frontal passage.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Scattered stratocumulus are likely around FL050 between 18Z and 23Z. Northwesterly winds 15G25kts are expected, peaking this afternoon with a few gusts in excess of 30 knots possible.

Winds will abate a bit tonight, then increase again Friday. Lighter winds and continued VFR conditions are expected Saturday. No significant weather is expected Sunday through Monday.

MARINE. Northwesterly winds will remain gusty through Friday. Gusts of 25 to 30 knots are possible at times, particularly during the afternoon hours for near shore waters and overnight for the wider waters. A few gusts near gale force are possible early Friday morning. Winds will become lighter Friday night into Saturday under high pressure. Fair weather conditions are expected Sunday and Monday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Water levels are decreasing this morning. Northwest flow will continue to cause water levels to decrease to near or below astronomical normals through Friday. Tides may increase rather sharply this weekend as onshore flow returns and any excess water left near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay surges northward.

FIRE WEATHER. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 30 to 35 MPH are likely across much of the area this afternoon. The lowest relative humidity values (25 to 35 percent) are expected over Virginia. Recent rainfall should keep the threat for fire spread relatively low. Similar conditions (slightly drier fuels, but also slightly weaker winds and slightly higher humidity) are possible again Friday afternoon, particularly over the central Shenandoah Valley into central Virginia Piedmont.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>534- 536>543. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ535.

SYNOPSIS . DHOF NEAR TERM . ADS/DHOF SHORT TERM . DHOF LONG TERM . LFR AVIATION . ADS/LFR/DHOF MARINE . ADS/LFR/DHOF TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . DHOF/ADS FIRE WEATHER . DHOF/ADS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 18 mi107 min NNW 12 G 20 53°F 56°F1012.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 36 mi101 min NW 7 G 15 52°F 55°F1013.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 42 mi179 min NW 7 1013 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi101 min NNW 21 G 25
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 48 mi101 min NW 13 G 21 51°F 53°F1012.2 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA6 mi34 minNNW 17 G 2310.00 miFair57°F26°F32%1014.9 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA7 mi93 minNW 12 G 2310.00 miA Few Clouds54°F26°F34%1014.1 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA12 mi34 minNNW 14 G 2310.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F29°F36%1013.5 hPa
Warrenton-Fauquier Airport, VA22 mi34 minWNW 17 G 2310.00 miFair57°F21°F26%1013.9 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA23 mi33 minNW 20 G 2810.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy55°F28°F36%1014.3 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA23 mi93 minWNW 19 G 2810.00 miFair and Breezy53°F24°F32%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRMN

Wind History from RMN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN14
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NW12NW7NW9N6NW3NW5W4W3NW4W7W4NW11
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N10NW7NW7NW3CalmCalmCalmNW8
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1 day agoE4E4E6SE3E8E8E9E8NE9NE9NE5NE8NE8
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N4N5CalmN4N4CalmN3NE6NE7NE5NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:24 AM EDT     0.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:58 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:49 PM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:41 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.80.70.50.40.30.20.10.20.50.811.11.110.80.60.50.30.10.10.20.5

Tide / Current Tables for Quantico Creek, Virginia
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Quantico Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:14 AM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:52 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:22 PM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:03 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.31.41.31.10.80.50.30.20.30.50.81.11.41.51.51.310.70.50.30.20.30.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.