Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Taylors Island, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Much colder today/tonight. A Freeze Warning remains in effect tonight for widespread below freezing temperatures expected.

- A few flurries or light snow showers are possible later this evening into tonight.

Early this morning, the strong cold front from earlier has now pushed off the coast with cooler air beginning to filter in from the NW. Rain chances (generally light) will linger for much of the area east of I-95 through sunrise as weak low pressure develops offshore.
Otherwise, skies gradually begin to clear from west to east, with temperatures dropping back into the upper 30s across western portions of the area to around 50 closer to the coast.

Much cooler and breezy today in the wake of the front with temperatures only in the lower 50s for a good portion of the area.
The main upper trough is still expected to pass over the area later this evening into tonight, bringing with it very steep low to mid level lapse rates as well as mid level moisture and weak lift. This may allow for some light precipitation to develop across northern portions of the area this evening, spreading further S and SE later tonight into early Tuesday morning. Still expecting this precipitation to be very light (perhaps mostly virga) with significant dry air showing up in model soundings due to strong, dry NW low level flow off of the mountains. However, if precipitation does fall, it could be a light rain/snow mix to start, becoming all snow across southern portions of the area later in the night. Am generally not expecting any accumulations, though if there were to be minor accumulations (~0.1"), the best chance would be across far southern VA into interior northeast NC where slightly heavier/more organized precipitation may fall due to slightly less dry air. Latest HRRR probs actually show ~50-70% probabilities for 0.1" of snow accumulation across far southern VA and northeast NC though this may be a bit overdone due to warm ground temperatures.

Outside of any winter precipitation chances, expect a widespread hard freeze across all of the area. There is an 80 to 90% probability of temperatures dropping below 28F for much of the area away from the immediate coast tonight. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for all portions of the forecast area where the growing season continues. Gusty winds are expected through the night across the region. This upper trough and very cold air will allow for deep mixing, even over the land. This will allow for very low wind chills for this time of year across the area. Certainly wind chills in the lower 20s can be expected with some wind chills in the teens by sunrise Tuesday AM.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry/cold on Tuesday with moderating temperatures Wednesday.

High pressure builds south of the area Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to dry weather. It will be very cold and breezy on Tuesday with temperatures likely not rising out of the 40s. Not as cold Tuesday night compared to tonight due to an increasing SW wind.
Temperatures will generally be in the 30s with some 40s along the immediate coast. Warmer on Wednesday with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 230 AM EST Monday...

- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures for the middle to end of the week.

- Another system may approach the area Sunday into early next week, bringing the next chance for rain.

Temperatures near normal with mostly dry conditions expected Thursday through Saturday. Upper heights gradually start to build across the region as the sharp trough early in the week moves northeast and becomes closed off over the Canadian Maritimes while a ridge builds over the middle of the country. This will keep the Middle Atlantic mostly dry through the extended period, although there is a chance for rain Sunday into early next week depending on how quickly the next trough approaches the area.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1240 AM EST Monday...

A cold front is now located just east of the local area, with primarily VFR CIGs to start off the period (MVFR at SBY). MVFR CIGs are expected to develop at PHF/ORF/ECG around or after 09z, lingering until ~12z at PHF and ~15z at ORF and ECG. In addition, there will likely be an uptick in (light) rain across the SE during the early morning hours. VFR conditions are then expected this afternoon although NW winds will gust to 15 to 20 kt at times. There is a slight chance of light rain and/or snow showers later this evening into tonight with an upper system (highest chances south), but conditions should remain VFR.

Outlook: VFR/dry Tuesday through Friday with breezy conditions during the afternoon hours.

MARINE
As of 750 PM EST Sunday..

Key Messages:

- A strong cold front pushed south of the area this morning.
Elevated winds and seas expected from today into the middle of the week. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for today.

- Gale Warning are now in effect for the coastal waters, Chesapeake Bay, and Currituck Sound for later tonight into Tuesday.

The cold front was pushing south across the Bay and coastal waters early this Monday morning resulting in north winds which will increase through the morning. Some light scattered showers were moving north, but overall rainfall was limited and should not last long early this morning. Winds across the local waters were generally north at 10 to 20 kt and winds will increase some through the morning hours behind the cold front with gusts to 20 kt and potentially briefing to 25 kt. Seas were 3 to 4 ft this morning and waves on the Bay were 1-2ft.
SCAs are in effect for the Bay due to gusts to 20 kt.

Confidence remains lower in frequent gusts up to 25 kt across the coastal waters today through winds could gusts to 20 to 25 kt for a short time this morning. SCAs across the coastal waters do not go into effect until 4 PM today across the N coastal waters and 7 PM across the S coastal waters. Wind will likely decrease for a time later this afternoon before increasing again this evening and overnight.

Have also kept the start times for the SCAs for the lower James River and Currituck Sound to 4 pm this afternoon due to low confidence in frequent gusts up to 20 kt this morning and a period of lighter winds this afternoon. Winds will increase late today and tonight.

Late Monday night is when the strong CAA will build in. Given the cold airmass (850 mb temps dropping to -8 to -10 C) over still-relatively mild waters in the mid 50s, Gale conditions appear increasingly likely tonight into Tuesday. Confidence is highest of the coastal waters, but gale conditions are still possible over the Bay. WNW winds increase to 25-30kt (20-25kt in the rivers) after midnight tonight/Tuesday morning with gusts 30-35 in the bay and rivers and up to 35-40kt over coastal waters. Local wind probs depict upward of 90% probs for 34kt+ wind gusts of the coastal waters while probs for the mouth of the bay are around 30% and lower for the Bay. Given these cold air masses tend to over perform have updated the Gale Watches to Gale Warnings. Winds will decrease 20-25kt Tues evening and Tues night as they turn to the SW. Elevated west winds continue through Wed and into Thurs before finally dropping below SCA thresholds Thur evening/night.

Seas increase to 4-6ft by late tonight and into Tuesday. The WNW offshore wind direction should keep highest seas closer to 20nm out. Seas drop below 5ft later in the week. Waves in the bay will be 1-2ft today, 2-3ft Monday, and 3-5ft Tuesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ065-075>090-092-093-095>100-512>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634.
Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634- 656-658.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ633-656-658.
Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.
Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.