Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Long Beach, MD

KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry conditions and seasonable temps through the weekend. Turning hotter with the next potential chance of rain by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and seasonable temps through the weekend. Turning hotter with the next potential chance of rain by the middle of next week.

Not too much of a change in the overall dry weather pattern.
Synoptically, we continue to monitor a weak front that will pass through the region late tonight into early Saturday. This will be followed by a period of strong upper level ridging settling in for the weekend into the early and middle part of next week.

No wetting rain is expected through Wednesday of next week, outside of some showers across the Allegheny Mountains tonight into Saturday morning. A sprinkle may make it's way toward the Catoctins Saturday morning with extra cloud cover along the front as it passes through. The front will bring a notable wind shift from the west and southwest today back to the north and northwest Saturday. Recent model guidance with respect to this frontal passage has decreased slightly in recent model guidance so have kept mentions mostly limited to the Allegheny Mountains of western Maryland and portions of eastern West Virginia. This also tracks given the amount of low-level dry air in place across the region in recent observations.

This will allow for tanking relative humidity values as dry high pressure over the upper Great Lakes region moves in. Recent model guidance indicates that minimum RHs will be 20-30% range; however, the "floor" based on recent HRRR minimum ensemble members outline that portions of the Shenandoah Valley could dip into the 10-20% range during the afternoon hours. That being said, winds are not expected to be as breezy on Saturday, thus will need to continue to monitor this aspect of the forecast in the near-term.

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of this weak cold front with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s (50s Mountains) Saturday as the front passes through. Lows will fall into the low to mid 40s Saturday night with highs Sunday back into the 70s (outside western shore of Chesapeake Bay, southern MD, and northeast MD).

A strengthening broad upper level ridge will allow temperatures to reach into near record territory by the middle of next week.
Highs are currently forecasted to reach the upper 80s for much of the forecast area next Tuesday, with highs in the lower 90s currently forecasted for next Wednesday. Ensemble guidance continues to be well aligned on the progression of this warm-up, but some outliers remain on the low end of the deterministic spectrum regarding the exact maximum temperatures that could be reached.

Wetting rain chances may return with a cold front late next week. This is due largely in part to a broad area of low pressure over the Great Lakes that will push toward the East Coast late next week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Very high (~90-100%) confidence in VFR conditions prevailing at all airfields through 00Z Sunday. A weak cold front will move across the area late this evening and into Saturday morning; however, the bulk of model guidance continues to leave the majority of the area (outside of far W MD/E WV) dry with this feature. The only airfield at real risk for some precipitation mentions would be MRB; however, based on current model trends have decided to leave them in the clear for any SHRA mentions between 04-08Z Saturday. An increasing low-to-mid level cloud deck will be the main interest for aviation interests with this feature; however, more pessimistic model guidance continues to keep lowest ceilings along the highest elevations of W MD, thus have kept mentions above VFR thresholds. Recent NBM model guidance continues to highlight a brief corridor of LLWS between 03-07Z Saturday across DC/Baltimore metro airfields.

Skies begin clearing out after 12Z Saturday and through the end of the TAF period. An increasing southwesterly wind is expected with sustained winds between 5 to 10 knots with gusts upwards of 15 to 20 knots increasingly possible at all airfields except at CHO. After 00Z Sunday, some chances for precipitation will come into the northern half of the forecast area Sunday evening and bring some potential for sub-VFR conditions with a similar pattern emerging on Monday and Tuesday; however, chances mainly stay north/west of the I-81 corridor.

MARINE
SCAs continue for most of the bay and lower tidal Potomac this afternoon and evening within southerly channeling. SCAs have been issued for Saturday for northerly winds behind a weak cold frontal passage.

Small Craft Advisories are likely on Monday through Tuesday morning as 15-20 knot winds blow from the south. Gusts up to 30 knots possible on Monday, with stronger gusts towards the central Chesapeake Bay. SCAs may still be needed on Tuesday morning before winds gradually decrease to 5-10 knots south by Tuesday night.

FIRE WEATHER
A Special Weather Statement has been issued for far western MD and portions of eastern West Virginia through 7pm. This is due to an elevated spread of wildfires given low relative humidity values in the 20 to 25 percent range and wind gusts up to 25 mph.

Gradual warming and continued dry conditions are expected through this afternoon as high pressure departs offshore. Winds will be a touch stronger today out of the south, and could gust to 20-25 mph, particularly on the higher ridges. Conditions will be dry once again, with min RH values in the 20s to the west of the Blue Ridge, and upper 20s and 30s to the east of the Blue Ridge.

Other than a small chance for a shower in the Alleghenies tonight as a cold front moves through, no precipitation is expected over the next several days. Gusty northerly winds will develop behind the front Saturday morning, but may not overlap as humidity values drop by afternoon. An SPS for elevated fire danger may be needed for portions of the area.

Even warmer conditions are likely early next week as another area of high pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic coast with limited rain chances through Wednesday. Expecting fuels to further dry out in this pattern, particularly given the high amounts of solar insolation reaching the ground over the past several days.

CLIMATE
Here are some daily temperature records during the April 14-15, 2026 timeframe:

A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record.
A '!' sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken.

***TUESDAY, APRIL 14TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA) 91F (1960) 65F (2014)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1960)! 63F (2014)
Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018)
Martinsburg (MRB) 87F (1960)! 62F (2014)
Charlottesville (CHO) 90F (1945)+! 67F (1899)
Annapolis (NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977)
Hagerstown (HGR) 86F (2024)+! 64F (2014)

***WEDNESDAY, APRIL 15TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
Washington-National (DCA) 89F (1941)! 65F (2023)! Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967)! 62F (2023)! Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941)! 65F (1941)! Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960)! Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941)! 63F (1967)
Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024)! 68F (1941)
Annapolis (NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960)+! 61F (2023)+!

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.