Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shenandoah, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A cold front is expected to pass through the region today. A few showers may develop particularly over the Appalachians and northern Maryland this afternoon. Behind the frontal passage, west to northwest winds are expected to increase quickly. Wind Advisories remain in effect for our higher elevations of the central Appalachians. These Wind Advisories may need to be extended further in time, depending on the steady rush of cooler and drier air into the region later tonight. High temperatures today will be warm given downsloping flow. Lows tonight will be cooler in the wake of the cold front.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures on Sunday will be a nice change since we have been dealing with an active week in terms of convection, flooding, humidity and warmth. Highs Sunday will be middle 70s. Sunday night's temperatures will bottom in the lower to middle 50s. Monday will remain dry and seasonable with highs in the middle 70s again.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Lingering effects of high pressure Tuesday should keep the day dry, though winds will become easterly resulting in increased cldcvr.
This will bring highs down into the low to mid 70s.

Shortwave trough will move in late Tuesday into Wednesday with associated sfc low progged to move south of the area Wednesday then up the coast. This will bring. By Wednesday, highs fall down into the mid 60s to low 70s with rain looking likely through the day.
Given precipitable water values possibly into the 1.25 to 1.50 inch range, there could easily be some heavy rain signatures. With a number of locations receiving flooding rains earlier this week, there could be some risk of additional flooding given such antecedent conditions in place.

Temperatures remain below average through the remainder of the work week as the upper trough passes through. Thursday would present a chance for some residual showers before improvements occur by Friday. This would offer a return to some sunshine before the conclusion of the work week. Should skies clear with favorable conditions, some late season frost is possible in the Alleghenies.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Winds will shift from southwest to northwest throughout the day today and gust to 20 to 30 knots. Gusty northwest winds could continue through the day on Sunday as cooler and drier air moves into the region. VFR conditions should continue through Sunday into Monday.

VFR conditions are likely Tuesday in response to high pressure across the region. On Tuesday, expect a shift to northerlies and eventually over to north-northeasterlies by later in the day. Moving to an onshore flow regime may introduce additional clouds into the night. This leads to an unsettled pattern on Wednesday with lengthy restrictions expected. Periods of rain are expected with easterlies gusting to around 15 to 20 knots.

MARINE
Gusty west to northwest winds will ensue behind a front and linger through Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure settles in Sunday night and Monday, bringing sub-SCA winds.

Winds turn more north to easterly on Tuesday, but likely remain below SCA criteria. Expecting rain much of Wednesday with winds out of the east around 15-20 kts. SCAs are possible especially over the southern waters.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ503.
WV...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>543.