Tuesday, September29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ventnor City, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:44PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 10:49 PM EDT (02:49 UTC) Moonrise 6:05PMMoonset 4:25AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ventnor City, NJ
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location: 38.51, -73.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 300125 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 925 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will cross the region tonight, bringing a return to more seasonable fall-like weather to the area. A weak wave of low pressure will ride along the East Coast Thursday night into Friday, but high pressure brings a return to dry weather for the weekend. A coastal storm may form over New England into the early portion of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Slow moving front and a wave moving along it have produced frequent showers across Delmarva, much of NJ and eastern PA this evening. Precip totals of 1 to 2 inches have been reported, and in some areas, these totals came in 1 to 2 hours. Only ponding of water and some minor rises on areas creeks so far. More rains expected overnight with the sfc low and best convergence moving thru after midnight. Another 1 to 2 inches may occur during the overnight. Pops are categorical region-wide and temps, dew points and winds were all updated for the latest fcst.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. The rainfall will begin to taper off from west to east around or shortly after daybreak as drier air begins to move in behind the cold front. All precipitation is expected to end by late morning, then the rest of the afternoon will be dry. Winds will become gusty behind the front, especially once skies begin to clear out and daytime mixing begins to take place. Wind gusts of 20-25 mph can be expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. A progressive weather pattern continues into the weekend and early next week as a mid-level trough remains anchored across the Midwest. Several short wave impulses will ride through the flow around this feature, leading to modest cyclogenesis across the East Coast - conveniently overhead for us. The good news is the patterns is anything but boring as we head into the new month.

Thursday looks to be one of the quieter days in the near future as we remain dry-slotted between the mid-level trough to our west and the stalled frontal boundary to our east. Influencing our weather will be the weak ridging overhead. Highs look seasonable in the low 70s.

By Friday, the first in our short wave series passes through the main trough minimum and begins to ride up the Eastern Seaboard, strengthening a surface low over our region. Relatively weak upper level divergence looks to keep this low fairly weak, but another round of showers and heavy downpours is likely. Highs stay noticeably cooler in the low to mid 60s under widespread cloud cover.

A similar pattern to Thursday as we head into the weekend with a weak surface high developing across southern New England. Highs remain on the cooler side in the mid to upper 60s, about 5 degrees below average for early fall.

The forecast turns more questionable, and perhaps exciting, as we head into Monday. While model agreement remains less than ideal, both the GFS and EC are indicating some form of coastal low may develop over our region and head along the New England Coast through Tuesday. There will be two pieces of energy to watch as a robust shortwave ejects out of the mid-level trough over the Midwest and a surface low moves northward off the Carolina Coast. The EC carries in much stronger shortwave and associated surface low than the GFS. Depending on how these two feature phase, a significant coastal low may develop, though it remains too far in the future to hang our hats on anything just yet. If the coastal Carolina low moves northward fast enough and into the PVA of the shortwave, hefty cyclogenesis is likely to ensue Monday. The GFS wants to phase these features a little further offshore than the EC. Tended to favor the EC a bit and trended PoPs upward Monday and Tuesday given the robustness of the Midwest trough and energetic features we have seen thus far.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Highly variable conditions at the terminals with occasional showers and varying VSBYS and CIGS in between the showers. Mostly a trend towards IFR expected overnight as the next system moves thru. LIFR is possible at times. Winds will be S or SE this evening then shift to W by dawn. Speeds mostly 5 to 10 knots early then 10 to 15 knots with gusts near 20 knots after the front passes.

Wednesday . IFR and MVFR conditions will begin the day during the morning hours, before lifting to VFR by midday. Winds will increase out of the west to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots. High confidence.

Outlook .

Thursday . VFR with southwesterly winds turning westerly into the afternoon from 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Thursday night and Friday . MVFR conditions at times as showers move northward into the area. VFR conditions return by Friday afternoon as showers move off to the north and east. Northwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Saturday and Sunday . VFR with northwesterly winds Saturday veering to the northeast on Sunday from 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Tonight . Seas will continue to build to between 5 and 8 feet during the overnight, while winds will increase into 25 to 30 knots range, so the SCA flag remains in place. There is a slight chance that winds could approach Gale Force later tonight for an hour or two, but there may be enough of an inversion to prevent the stronger winds from above the surface to mix down to the surface. So we have not issued a Gale Warning at this time.

Wednesday . The wind will diminish on Delaware Bay around or shortly after daybreak, so no changes have been made to the end time of 8 am. While winds diminish on the ocean, the seas so the advisory remains in effect through 6 pm on the ocean.

Outlook .

Thursday . Winds from the southwest from 10 to 15 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots. Seas may remain elevated from 3 to 5 feet into the early afternoon, thus the SCA may need to be extended into the morning.

Friday through Sunday . conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria.

Rip Currents .

There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents on Wednesday. A southwest to west wind 10 to 15 MPH is expected. Breaking waves should be 2 to 3 feet with a medium period southeast swell.

Our final surf zone forecast for the season will be issued on Wednesday morning.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Davis Near Term . PO Short Term . Robertson Long Term . Davis Aviation . Davis/Robertson/PO Marine . Davis/Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 73 mi59 min 5 ft
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 82 mi49 min 71°F 70°F

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ90 mi53 minS 14 G 2410.00 miLight Rain72°F70°F94%1005.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWWD

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Waretown, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Waretown
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:35 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:39 AM EDT     0.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:54 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:53 PM EDT     0.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.30.1000.10.20.40.50.60.60.50.40.30.20.100.10.20.40.50.60.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Atlantic City (Steel Pier), New Jersey
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Atlantic City (Steel Pier)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:31 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:40 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:54 PM EDT     4.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.30.91.72.63.4443.72.921.20.60.511.82.93.84.54.74.43.62.61.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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