Friday, January28, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ventnor City, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:14PM Friday January 28, 2022 5:01 PM EST (22:01 UTC) Moonrise 4:41AMMoonset 2:13PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ventnor City, NJ
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location: 38.51, -73.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 282114 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 414 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

SYNOPSIS. A strong coastal storm will develop off the Southeast coast tonight and track to the north and east through Saturday night. High pressure then builds into the region for the start of the new week before departing by the middle of next week. Another area low pressure may approach the region late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/.

Major winter storm expected to affect much of the region tonight Saturday .

Bottom line upfront: No major changes to overall forecast thinking for this storm. This will be a high impact event for our forecast area. With this latest forecast update, forecast snowfall totals were brought up just a bit based on latest model trends and obs but not that different than previous forecast. With the slightly higher totals, we did expand the Winter Weather Advisory to include Berks, Lehigh, and Northampton Counties in PA but no changes to the Blizzard or Winter Storm Warning. The worst of the storm still expected to impact the area between roughly midnight and early Saturday afternoon.

Getting into the details, the storm continues to start taking shape off the SE CONUS coast east of deepening upper level trough. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary was gradually pushing southward across the forecast area. It is this latter feature that's actually been causing the snow that has already affected parts of the region today with upwards of a couple inches so far in spots.

Tonight is when we will be getting into the real meat of this storm. The forecast models are now in good overall agreement tracking rapidly deepening low pressure NNE from off the SE coast to a point near or just south of "The benchmark" (40 degrees latitude north / 70 degrees west) by 12z Saturday. Snow will become more widespread and increase in intensity south to north through the evening hours. Northerly winds will ramp up with time as well. The end result is that by the overnight period, snow, becoming heavy at times will encompass much of the area near and S/E Of the I-95 corridor with the increasing winds resulting in blowing snow and reduced visibilities. Hence the Blizzard Warning for the coast. Also, by the predawn hours of Saturday, northern edge of snow will be getting into our far N/W counties but still expecting much less snowfall here.

For Saturday, low will be due east of the area off the coast as it continue to rapidly deepen and move northeast. This will result in blizzard conditions continuing near the coast as wind gusts will be up to 50 mph with snowfall rates 1-2 inches per hour at times as our coastal zones will be in the intense snowfall band on the N/W side of the storm. The snow won't be quite as heavy but still heavy at times back towards the I-95 corridor (including Philly) with rates here even getting to around 1 inch per hour at times along with winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. The snow continues through the morning before then starting to diminish with time from west to east across the area as we get into the afternoon. However the very strong winds will continue through the afternoon as the storm pulls away aided by the cold advection pattern in its wake with winds shifting from north to NW. For this reason, blowing/drifting snow will likely continue in places right through the day, especially near the coast. Finally, with temperatures holding in the teens (north) and 20s (south) this will combine to produce bitter wind chills in the single digits!

In terms of snowfall totals, expecting 12 to 18 inches near the coast with amounts diminishing to around the 6 to 8 inch range near Philly and then 2-4 inches or so N/W towards Berks County into the Lehigh Valley. Best place to see updated forecast snowfall totals graphically though is at wwww.weather.gov/phi/winter. It needs to be also noted that while the overall confidence in the forecast has increased, we still are expecting a fairly sharp gradient on this storms western side (which is where we'll be) with diminishing amounts from SE to NW. For this reason, even a small change to the storm track could still shift these amounts up or down some.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Any lingering snow over our far eastern zones continues to diminish west to east Saturday evening with winds gradually coming down as well as the storm pulls away. However temps continuing to drop will combine with lingering NW winds to bring wind chills in the -5 to +5 range south and as low as the minus teens north. So it will feel extremely cold adding to ongoing storm impacts. This despite the storm having moved out.

For Sunday, we expect lighter winds as weak ridging moves in. This will bring a mix of sun/clouds with continuing cold temps as highs will generally only be in the 20s.

Fair weather under the influence of ridging will continue to dominate Sunday night through Monday. Sunday night will be very cold but temps finally moderate by Sunday with most areas seeing highs in the 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure settles off the Southeast U.S. coast Monday night through Wednesday. Return flow sets up behind the high, and warm air advection will be underway. On Tuesday, temperatures warm back to normal levels, and then on Wednesday, temperatures warm up well into the 40s, and possibly in the lower 50s in southern zones.

Another trough digs into the West coast, and several waves of low pressure will develop out ahead of it. A warm front lifts north through the region Wednesday night, as one wave of low pressure tracks north and west of the region, and then a stronger wave of low pressure lifts through the region on Thursday.

It is too soon to determine this one way or another, but the 12Z/28 GFS is indicating PWATs over 1 inch. So locally heavy rain may be a concern, but this will be combined with melting snow pack that could result in flooding.

Cold front moves through the region behind the departing system, and temperatures return back closer to normal on Friday.

AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Deteriorating conditions from S to N with IFR then LIFR at the terminals. Snow at first the blowing snow too mostly after midnight. NE winds 10 to 15 knots then N winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30-35 knots late. Blizzard conditions with VSBYS 1/4SM or lower and gusts around 35 knots at KACY.

Outlook .

Saturday into Saturday night . IFR/LIFR early with snow and blowing snow then snow ending with improving conditions by afternoon. Improvement begins earlier KRDG/KABE and later KACY/KMIV. Strong/gusty winds decreasing Sat night.

Sunday thru Tuesday . VFR conditions expected.

Wednesday . Lower CIGS/VSBYS possible with rain/snow possible.

MARINE. Rapid deterioration in conditions expected tonight, as northeast winds quickly increase during the evening. At least advisory conditions expected by late evening, with gales developing on all waters overnight; the previously issued gale warning remains in effect.

Winds will become north to northwest on Saturday, with gusts exceeding 40-50 kt likely over the ocean waters where we have a Storm Warning in effect. Winds should peak during the afternoon and early evening, with a gradual diminishing trend late Saturday night. Gales will likely continue through the night. Additionally, heavy snow is likely late tonight through at least Saturday afternoon. Visibility restrictions are likely. Finally, with increasingly cold air and strong northwest winds on Saturday night, freezing spray is likely to develop, primarily close to the coast. A freezing spray advisory has been issued for all waters Saturday night.

Outlook .

Sunday through Monday . once winds and seas drop below 25 kt and 5 ft later in the day on Sunday, winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria through Tuesday.

Monday night through Wednesday . a Prolonged period of sub-SCA conditions expected.

Thursday . SCA conditions possible as low pressure passes through the waters.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The potential for tidal flooding along much of the New Jersey and Delaware coastline on Saturday morning has continued to increase based on the latest track of the forecast Nor'easter, which brings the storm closer to the coast.

A north-northeast wind has now developed and will strengthen through this evening, with wind speeds increasing to 25 to 35 mph late tonight and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph likely. Ekman transport will push water toward the coast. The period of time with an onshore push leading up to Saturday morning's high tide will be somewhat limited (less than 12 hours). However, combined with the rapidly deepening offshore low and increasing fetch length of northeast winds, it should be enough to produce the surge needed to begin causing flooding along the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey. Model guidance now indicates a surge of 2 to 3 feet is likely along the coast.

Based on this updated surge forecast, there is now the potential for areas of moderate coastal flooding along the far southern New Jersey Atlantic coast and along the Delaware Atlantic coast. A Coastal Flood Warning has been issued for Cape May and Sussex (DE) Counties for the Saturday morning high tide.

A threat of minor coastal flooding continues in our remaining Atlantic coastal areas. The Coastal Flood Advisory has been expanded to include Monmouth County, NJ. In addition, the northeast winds are likely to push up to 2 feet of surge across Delaware Bay and into the central Delaware coast. The Coastal Flood Advisory has also been expanded to Kent County, DE. Based on the expected wind direction and duration of the onshore flow, no more than spotty minor flooding is forecast along Raritan Bay. No flooding is expected along the New Jersey side of Delaware Bay, along the tidal Delaware River or on the upper eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay.

Even as the wind backs to the northwest for Saturday evening, water levels along the coast should remain elevated, especially in the back bays. Saturday evening's high tide is the lower of the two daily high tides, so no more than spotty minor flooding is expected at that time.

The guidance continues to hinting at a lingering round of spotty minor flooding with Sunday morning's high tide before the water begins to drain away from the coast.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for PAZ070-071-104-106. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Saturday for PAZ060>062-101>103-105. Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for PAZ054-055. NJ . Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for NJZ008>010-012-015>019-021. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Saturday for NJZ013-014-020-022-025>027. Blizzard Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for NJZ013-014-020-022>027. Coastal Flood Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for NJZ023-024. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Saturday for NJZ001-007. DE . Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Saturday for DEZ002. Blizzard Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for DEZ003-004. Coastal Flood Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for DEZ003-004. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Saturday for DEZ001-002. MD . Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Saturday for MDZ012-015-019-020. MARINE . Storm Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ450>455. Freezing Spray Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to noon EST Sunday for ANZ430-431-450>455. Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . MPS Near Term . Fitzsimmons Short Term . Fitzsimmons Long Term . MPS Aviation . Fitzsimmons/MPS Marine . Fitzsimmons/MPS Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 72 mi21 min NNE 16G18 41°F 46°F1014.9 hPa33°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 82 mi43 min 36°F 37°F1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ90 mi65 minE 810.00 miOvercast38°F20°F48%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWWD

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrSE40N30000000000000W3NW3NW5NW43NW6NE4E8
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Tide / Current Tables for Waretown, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Waretown
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:25 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:33 AM EST     0.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:15 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:00 PM EST     0.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Waretown, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, Tide feet
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Tide / Current Tables for Atlantic City (Steel Pier), New Jersey
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Atlantic City (Steel Pier)
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:33 AM EST     4.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:05 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:14 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:57 PM EST     3.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:01 PM EST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Atlantic City (Steel Pier), New Jersey, Tide feet
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