Wednesday, April21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ventnor City, NJ

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 7:42PM Wednesday April 21, 2021 7:02 AM EDT (11:02 UTC) Moonrise 1:20PMMoonset 3:15AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ventnor City, NJ
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location: 38.51, -73.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 210815 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 415 AM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. A strong low and cold front will sweep through the Northeast today. Broad high pressure will encompass much of the eastern U.S. Thursday and Friday. A surface low developing in the central and southern Plains Friday night will lift quickly northeastward through the Mid- Atlantic Saturday night into the Canadian Maritimes by Monday. A slow-moving surface high will build into the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic through much of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. A cold front is currently stalled just NW of our area, resulting in a fairly impressive thermal contrast between western and eastern PA (temps in the mid 30s near Pittsburgh while upper 50s are being observed near Philadelphia). Low pressure, currently in the vicinity of western MD/south-central PA, will continue to deepen and ride northeast along this boundary through the day today as UL divergence increases downstream of the deep trough over the Great Lakes. As a result of the eastward progression of the mid-lvl system, the cold front will also begin to rapidly progress eastward late this morning into this afternoon . entering our area around noon and clearing the coast by mid-afternoon.

Given the increasing UL dynamics and strengthening sfc.low the front should be frontogenetic as it crosses our area and will thus serve as a focus for convective development this afternoon. The primary question marks regarding today's convective potential are how quickly portions of area destabilize ahead of the front and (relatedly) how quickly the front moves through the area. Low-lvl Theta-E advection driven by an ~40kt LLJ should result in appreciable sfc-based instability developing over the warm sector by early afternoon. Areas around I-95 and eastward will have a couple additional hours to diurnally mix/warm so naturally expect the highest values of MLCAPE (generally 500-750 J/kg) to be in this zone. The increasing residence time in the warm sector is the primary motivation for SPC placing the eastern half or so of area in a slight risk for convection today, while the western portion of our area remains in a marginal risk. The kinematic fields still appear sufficient to support organized convection with damaging winds as the primary threat, given 0-3km shear values 30-35kts, 0-6km mean winds around 40kts, and bulk shear values in the neighborhood of 45- 50kts. Convective mode looks to be linear given both the strongly forced nature of the convection, and the parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector to the boundary. The most likely timing for convection would be (progressing from W-E) 1-4PM.

High temperatures will be a bit tricky today with a W-E gradient likely due to the timing of the front. Expect portions of NJ and Delmarva to hit the 70s, while low to mid 60s will be the norm in eastern PA where the front crosses earlier in the day, with the highest uncertainty around the I-95 corridor.

Temperatures and dewpoints will plummet behind the front later this afternoon, with substantial pressure rises supporting post-frontal gusts in the 30-35 mph range. Some light rain (snow in the Poconos) showers will be possible behind the front, given continued height falls/DCVA, however the magnitude of the dry air advection should preclude these from being significant.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Main concerns this period will be freeze potential tonight (and to a lesser degree Thursday night) as well as winds through Thursday. Fire weather concerns are present on Thursday, as well.

The low and cold front bringing our potentially active weather today will be well off to our northeast and east by 00z Thursday. Strong northwest winds will occur in the wake of the low, but the timing of surface pressure rises is not particularly favorable for efficient mixing of winds to the surface. Winds aloft will also be weakening by Thursday, so the potential looks low for the need for a wind advisory. Additionally, model soundings are far less impressive today (generally reducing forecast gusts by 5+ kt tonight and Thursday versus those seen yesterday, both the NAM and GFS). The larger concern wind-wise is with fire-weather potential on Thursday. See the fire weather section below for more details.

The next forecast concern is freeze potential tonight. First, it should be noted that this is not a slam-dunk case for areas northwest of the Fall Line. Although the cold advection will be quite strong upstream of the front, breezy conditions will continue through the night. Models commonly drop temperatures too much in these regimes, and I suspect there is at least some of this bias with the output this morning. Nevertheless, the growing season is well underway outside of the southern Poconos, and with strong potential for near-freezing to subfreezing temperatures, think confidence is high enough to upgrade the freeze watch to a freeze warning. Added Chester County to the product, given propensity for more sheltered/valley spots to cool readily. Will need to watch for potential in the Pine Barrens as well, but confidence is too low here at this point for product issuance.

For Thursday night, winds will be diminishing, and skies are expected to be clearing. On the first night of post-frontal northwest flow regimes, a cold bias is typically exhibited. On the second night, a warm bias tends to occur. As a result, think a second freeze is possible in northern New Jersey and perhaps portions of the Lehigh Valley. We will see what happens tonight before addressing this, however.

High pressure will be shifting southeastward into the western Atlantic by Friday night, and midlevel ridging will take place in much of the eastern U.S. After a cold Thursday (highs generally in the upper 40s to low 50s), around 7-12 degrees of warming is expected for Friday. It may still be breezy during the day, but winds will be noticeably lower than on Thursday. The warming trend will continue with lows Friday night, with quiet conditions remaining.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A potentially strong but quick-hitting storm will affect the Mid- Atlantic this weekend, but next week looks much quieter.

At the start of the period (12z Saturday), a southern-stream perturbation will be moving through the middle Mississippi Valley, with an attendant surface low bringing widespread precipitation to the Midwest and strong convection to the Mid-South and Southeast. The low will track east-northeast, as a northern-stream vort max interacts with the storm system. This interaction will allow the low to begin to track more northeasterly into the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday night. A widespread soaking rain is expected for the region as the low tracks through, with winds beginning to increase on the north/west side of the low during the deepening phase of the cyclone. Though models are in relative agreement with the large- scale details of the system's evolution, the exact track will be fairly important in terms of pinpointing relative maxima/minima in QPF. A track over the area would likely mean dry-slotting for portions of the CWA, whereas a track farther to the southeast would be more favorable for widespread heavier total rainfall. Regardless, rain seems rather likely for the whole area, and perhaps a storm or two in the far south, closer to the system's warm sector. Increased PoPs, but also broadened the period of higher PoPs into late Saturday and also into Sunday (especially for the northeast CWA), as confidence in timing is not overly high. The storm will be relatively fast-moving, so this entire period will not be a washout, but there looks to be a 6-12 hour period where it will be unpleasant (especially with the anticipated breezy conditions).

As this low moves to the northeast on Sunday, another round of northwest-flow winds will occur. Depending on the timing of the low, this may end up being a little more formidable versus the low affecting us the next couple of days, as the intensity of the low combined with the more favorable timing may allow for some gusty winds Sunday afternoon. Breezy conditions will continue through Monday. One noticeable difference, however, will be the lack of strong cooling in the wake of the system given its farther south origins.

The upper pattern appears to become quite blocky next week, and as has been the case of late, the upper low blasting through the area this weekend may hang up in the northwest Atlantic upstream of highly anomalous downstream ridge amplification. A deep trough will approach the central U.S. during this time, leading to high- amplitude ridging along the East Coast. All systems will slow down in this evolving pattern, and the favorable positioning of the ridge will lead to a quiet and warm stretch for the East Coast. Expect this to begin in earnest by Tuesday.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR conditions will prevail for most of the day, however a convective line is expected to pass through most of the terminals (particularly I-95 and eastward) this afternoon. The most likely timing for this line will be (from W-E) 17-20Z, with gusty winds, lightning, and temporarily reduced flight categories possible. Winds will generally be SW around 10-15kts with gusts 20-25ks through early this afternoon, then shift WNW sustained at 15-20kts with gusts to 30kts behind the front. High confidence in most aspects of the forecast, lower confidence on if the convective line will impact KRDG/KABE.

Tonight . Generally VFR although some sporadic MVFR cigs may be possible at KRDG/KABE at times this evening. WNW winds sustained 10- 15kts with gusts 20-25kts expected. High confidence.

Outlook .

Thursday . VFR with northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30+ kt. High confidence.

Thursday night and Friday . VFR with west winds 7 to 15 kt with gusts to 20+ kt (higher speeds/gusts during the day). High confidence.

Friday night and Saturday . Mainly VFR, but clouds should be on the increase on Saturday. Light west or southwest winds on Friday night becoming south and increasing to 7 to 15 kt on Saturday. Moderate confidence.

Saturday night and Sunday . Rain and associated restrictions likely, especially through Sunday morning. May see some improvement by late Sunday. Winds will be quite variable and potentially gusty through this period. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Southerly winds will increase to around 25-30kts over the waters today and thus an SCA is currently in effect through the daytime hours. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to pass over the waters in the mid-afternoon time frame and strong winds and lightning will be possible with these storms. Behind the storms expect Northwest winds to increase to gale force this evening into the overnight period. Seas will also increase into the 5-6 foot range overnight.

Outlook .

Thursday . Northwest gales likely. A gale warning remains in effect for all waters.

Thursday night . Lingering gales are possible during the evening, with advisory conditions expected through the night.

Friday . Lingering advisory conditions possible, but conditions are expected to improve with time.

Friday night and Saturday . Sub-advisory conditions expected.

Saturday night and Sunday . Advisory conditions probable as a strong low moves through the region. As winds become northwest on Sunday, advisory conditions become most likely. Gales cannot be ruled out. Rain is likely Saturday night and Sunday morning.

FIRE WEATHER. Windy and dry conditions are expected on Thursday across the area. With low total rainfall amounts expected today, concern is increasing that favorable fire-weather conditions will occur for several hours during the day, as winds are forecast to gust to 30+ mph and minimum relative humidity will likely fall well below 30 percent from late Thursday morning through the afternoon. We will contact fire-weather partners today regarding the need for a special weather statement or fire- weather products on Thursday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ060>062- 101>103-105. NJ . Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ001- 007>010. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430- 431-450>455. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ430-431-450>455.

Synopsis . CMS Near Term . Carr Short Term . CMS Long Term . CMS Aviation . CMS/Carr Marine . CMS/Carr Fire Weather . CMS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 73 mi73 min 3 ft
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 82 mi45 min 53°F 51°F1009.4 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ90 mi67 minS 810.00 miFair55°F47°F74%1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWWD

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1 day agoCalmCalmNW6N7----SW6W6W54SW6S5SW4SW4W3CalmCalmW4SW5W5W3W4W4W4
2 days agoCalmCalm6W65W7W9W7NW7W65S9S9S8S9S10S6S4SW4SW3SW5W5W5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Waretown, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Waretown
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Wed -- 03:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:31 AM EDT     0.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:48 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:24 PM EDT     0.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.30.40.50.50.50.50.40.30.20.10.10.10.10.20.30.40.50.50.40.30.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Atlantic City (Steel Pier), New Jersey
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Atlantic City (Steel Pier)
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Wed -- 02:45 AM EDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:30 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:35 PM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:28 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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