Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moab, UT

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/5AM Monday)...

Key Points:

- High pressure will bring dry, mostly clear conditions through much of the next week with temperatures around 5-10F warmer than normal.

- Although a shift toward a cooler and wetter pattern is favored late next week (70% likelihood), there remains some uncertainty regarding how this would impact the forecast area if it does manifest itself.

Southwest Wyoming and Utah will be downstream of a ridge near the Pacific coast, with dry northwest flow through the weekend. A boundary with a surface pressure gradient tracking from north to south will bring locally gusty northeast winds Saturday night into Sunday along the I-15 corridor of Black Ridge Canyon into lower Washington County. With lack of cold air advection to further enhance speeds and flow aloft decreasing, no headlines are anticipated. Wind gusts will range from around 30-40 mph.

Mostly clear conditions will last through the weekend.
Temperatures will be near normal Saturday, then around 5F warmer than normal Sunday as ridging to the west slides slightly east.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Monday)...Confidence is high in a longwave ridge building across the region bringing a warming trend through midweek. A mid November sun angle with weak flow will limit boundary layer mixing somewhat and result in low level inversions which will mute the warming trend a bit, however daytime temperatures will reach 10F above climo across the forecast area by Tuesday, and remain roughly 10F above climo through Thursday.

Forecast uncertainly increases beginning Friday, with roughly 70% of ensemble solutions clustered around an upper trough moving inland and into the Interior West in some form or fashion sometime during the Friday/Saturday timeframe. Within those 70% of model solutions there remains a fair amount of spread regarding exactly how this trough would evolve as it moves into the region, and the resultant impact on the forecast area. At the same time, it should be noted just under 30% of ensemble solutions do continue to maintain ridging across the forecast area through Saturday with the upper trough parked upstream. Although the trend in model guidance is increasingly favors a cooler and wetter pattern at the end of the forecast period, there remains some potential this pattern change doesn't materialize and warm/dry conditions persist through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION
KSLC...Wind direction will vary from southeast to northwest through 16Z, with speeds generally less than 5 knots.
Light northwest winds will last from around 16-03Z with mostly clear conditions.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Mostly clear conditions with relatively light winds from the northwest will prevail. Winds will enhance into lower Washington County after 00Z, with gusts around 30-40 mph.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.