Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hanksville, UT

DISCUSSION
An abnormally cool and wet spring storm is poised to bring a number of impacts area-wide Saturday through Monday:

* Strong pre-frontal winds will approach advisory criteria Saturday, with the potential for convective outflows and dry thunderstorms area-wide elevating fire weather risk, particularly for southern Utah.

* Anomalously wet conditions could bring 0.25-0.5" of rain to much of the state along the I-15 corridor from Cedar City to Snowville, with 0.5-1.25" of moisture to the mountains, falling as snow above 7500-9000ft, with heaviest amounts in the central and southern Wasatch.

* Increased Frost/freeze risk overnight Sunday-Monday and Monday- Tuesday with the arrival of much colder air, with a 30-40% chance of temperatures below 32F.

A colder airmass lingers across the area today, keeping temperatures across the region solidly below normal for this time of year (~5-10 degrees below normal). A shortwave trough bringing widely scatter showers and isolated thunderstorms departs the region through the evening, allowing northern area precipitation to come to an end during the evening/ overnight hours. Tomorrow, conditions stabilize as flow becomes less disturbed, however, lingering moisture will exist across far northern Utah which will aid in the development of more isolated showers. Otherwise, temperatures rise by about 5 degrees across the forecast area, though temperatures still remain below climatological normals.

High confidence persists in the arrival of a potent storm system early in the weekend, with the leading edge of the trough and pre- frontal environment to bring strong winds and enhanced convective potential. Ensemble forecasts keep the majority of northern Utah below 35 mph for peak gusts Saturday, where central and southern Utah will see the potential for gusts as high as 50 mph.
Northwestern Utah will see the greatest potential for afternoon convective downbursts.

The bulk of the precipitation looks to be centered on Sunday morning, with much greater uncertainty around onset timing late Saturday and cessation timing, with slower solutions maintaining lingering precipitation through midday Monday for the northern mountains. Good consensus exists that heavy precipitation will occur Sunday morning, with the higher 48-hour totals relying on the earliest onset and latest cessation timings. As precipitation and cloud cover clears out, much colder air will settle in, and under clearing skies, southern Utah will see minimum temperatures near freezing, running 5-10F below seasonal norms.

AVIATION
KSLC...Scattered showers will diminish around 00Z. Dry conditions are likely after, with clouds increasing after 06Z.
Light west to northwest winds will transition to southeast around 04Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Isolated to scattered showers will taper off around 00Z. Gusty west to northwest winds will diminish after 00Z. Dry conditions are likely after, with clouds increasing after 06Z.

FIRE WEATHER
A shortwave trough exits the region today, allowing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern Utah to dissipate through the evening. Lingering moisture will remain in place across northern Utah on Friday, leading to another round of more isolated showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain. That said, warm air will begin surging from the south through the afternoon tomorrow, helping to raise temperatures and dry out conditions in the southern area. By Saturday, southwest winds increase substantially ahead of a cold late-season trough across the forecast area. With temperatures continuing to rise and surface conditions drying further, expect elevated fire weather conditions to develop in the southern half of Utah (especially in southeast Utah). There is a chance for high-based convection to develop across the northern and western area by Saturday afternoon, bringing the threat of isolated dry thunderstorms.

Much cooler and wetter conditions arrive in Utah by Sunday as a significant late season cold front pushes into the area. A widespread shot of significant wetting rain is anticipated across a majority of Utah, with the least amounts (potentially less than 0.1in) in southeastern Utah. This cooler and wetter weather is expected to prevail through Monday, with temperatures beginning to make a rapid rise as we head into the middle of next week.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.