Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 6:54 PM   Moonset 5:04 AM

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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 120 Pm Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon - .
This afternoon - S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed - W winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming nw late. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu night - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 120 Pm Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will move offshore later today. A cold front will cross the area Wednesday. High pressure will return for the end of the week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed through Thursday morning, and again Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon.

FXUS61 KLWX 231905 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 305 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure moves offshore today and a cold front moves through late tonight through Wednesday. High pressure builds in again Thursday into Friday. A warm front moves through over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Dense cirrus is evident across much of the area this afternoon.
High clouds are expected to remain overhead and possibly be joined by some mid clouds, particularly west of the Blue Ridge, but coverage isn't expected to increase significantly until this evening. High temperatures top out in the upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon. Overnight, increasing cloud cover will keep us in the 40s to 50s.

The main concern today looks to be elevated fire danger.
Widespread RHs in the 20s and low 30s have already been observed this afternoon, and sustained winds are expected to pick up around 10-15 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph in the next few hours.
These conditions will be favorable for drying fuels and the potential for fire spread. An SPS remains in effect through 7PM.

A cold front approaches from the west tonight, but any showers are expected to be mostly restricted to along and west of the Alleghenies before sunrise.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Showers continue over the Alleghenies through Wednesday morning with upslope flow, and more showers develop along central Maryland and along the Chesapeake Bay as the front advances eastward. A few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out in the afternoon. Showers exit by the evening. Patchy frost could develop Wednesday night depending on how much clearing occurs behind the cold front, but we'll continue to evaluate.

Dry conditions return Thursday with high pressure building into the region.

Temperatures on Wednesday will depend on the timing of the cold frontal passage as temps drop behind it, but could see above normal temps in the low 70s east of the Blue Ridge before the front passes in the afternoon. Thursday will be cooler with highs in 50s and 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The long term period will start out dry as upper level ridging shifts over the area throughout the day on Friday. At the surface, high pressure shifts southeast over the Atlantic throughout the period. High temperatures on Friday will get into the 60s for most with highest ridgetops staying in the 50s. Overnight lows will dip into the 40s areawide. Starting Friday night into Saturday, precipitation chances increase west of the Blue Ridge as a low pressure system moves over the Great Lakes region. Dry air aloft will keep rain chances less than 50% with conditions drying out overnight Saturday into Sunday. Isolated to scattered rain showers cannot be ruled out Monday afternoon as a frontal system approaches the area.

As upper level ridging builds overhead and return flow ushers in warm air, temperatures noticeably warm on Sunday. High temperatures on will be in the mid 70s to 80s for most with higher elevations staying in the upper 60s. For Monday, high temperatures rise into the upper 70s to 80s areawide. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s both nights.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some isolated to scattered showers could bring brief reductions tonight into tomorrow, but guidance continues to trend drier with the cold frontal passage outside of the mountains.
Confidence is too low to explicitly mention in the TAFs.

Most significant note for the TAF period is the winds, with gusty southerly winds this afternoon diminishing overnight. A decent LLJ develops around NE MD overnight however, so included LLWS in the BWI and MTN TAFs. Winds pick up out of the northwest on Wednesday with gusts around 20-25 kt possible. Northeasterly flow and dry conditions arrive Thursday.

VFR conditions are expected Friday at all terminals with high pressure overhead. On Saturday, a frontal system passing to our west will bring low end rain chances to MRB with the rest of the terminals staying dry. Southeast winds on Friday shift to southerly on Sunday, blowing around 10 knots and gusting 15-20 knots each afternoon.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters through Wednesday morning with gusty winds out of the south today becoming gusty out of the northwest behind a passing cold front.
SCA criteria winds could continue into Wednesday afternoon.
Winds over the waters diminish and turn out of the northeast on Thursday.

Southeast winds on Friday shift to southerly on Saturday with dry conditions expected over the waters both days. Winds will be right below SCA criteria on Friday before diminishing overnight into Saturday morning. Winds pick up again on Saturday and will likely reach SCA criteria in the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER
Elevated fire conditions are expected due to dry conditions and gusty winds. Widespread RHs in the 20s and low 30s have already been observed this afternoon, and sustained winds are expected to pick up around 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph in the next few hours. This will result in the rapid drying of fine fuels.

RHs recover tonight to 60-70% with some reduction in winds.
Winds turn out of the northwest behind a cold front and will be stronger, sustained around 15-20 mph and gusts 20-25 mph and possibly higher along the ridges. RHs could drop into the upper 20s and low 30s on Wednesday afternoon. Will continue to monitor conditions going into Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal anomalies continue to increase under southerly flow. Minor coastal flooding is expected for Annapolis for Wednesday morning's high tide, and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued. Minor flooding is also possible at Straits Point and Havre De Grace.
Otherwise only Action stage is anticipated for the remaining tidal sites. Winds turn out of the northwest on Wednesday resulting in lowering tidal anomalies.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>543.

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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:18 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:23 AM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:04 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:43 PM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 07:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aquia Creek, Virginia, Tide feet

Quantico Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:56 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:29 AM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:46 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 07:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:00 PM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Quantico Creek, Virginia, Tide feet

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