Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Secretary, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:22PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 10:02 PM EST (03:02 UTC) Moonrise 9:33AMMoonset 9:01PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 937 Pm Est Tue Jan 28 2020
Rest of tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of rain.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 937 Pm Est Tue Jan 28 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Weak disturbances will pass over the area through evening. High pressure will build over the northern great lakes during the middle of the week as a cold front drops south from new england and low pressure passes well to the south near georgia.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Secretary, MD
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location: 38.57, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 290233 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 933 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure across the Midwest will continue to influence our weather through tonight. A weak cold front will cross our region late tonight into Wednesday. Low pressure will move northeast off the coast early this weekend and then move away Sunday. High pressure looks to return early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. An upper air analysis this evening placed a trough from the Canadian Maritimes southwestward to the Great Lakes. There are multiple short waves within this trough and these are also noted on the water vapor imagery. The 00z Sterling, VA and Upton, NY roabs showed a strong inversion just above 850 mb. This is resulting in a narrow layer of moisture trapped just beneath the inversion. Therefore, a wealth of stratocumulus continues across the entire area. It looks like the clearing will continue to be delayed as we will need to wait until the pre-dawn hours once the main short wave passes and some drier air should get entrained within the inversion layer.

For the 930 PM update, adjusted the cloud cover up to cloudy/mostly cloudy longer, then continued to show some clearing from southeast to northwest late in the overnight. The clouds may end up persisting all night across the Pocono region especially. Given the cloud cover and some wind still occurring, temperatures are slowly dropping. Adjusted the hourly temperatures to reflect this and blended in the LAMP guidance to assist. Did not make any changes to the low temperatures at this time since at least partial clearing is anticipated prior to daybreak for many areas. Looks like one main weak streamer coming in off Lake Ontario going through the Binghamton, NY area and then into a portion of northeast PA. The remnants of this may still result in flurries for the Poconos and therefore kept a mention for awhile longer.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. Another mid level short wave trough is expected to pass overhead on Wednesday morning. It should be followed by a reinforcing shot of dry air. We are expecting a mostly sunny sky for Wednesday along with a northwest wind around 10 mph.

High temperatures should be similar to those of today, mainly in the lower and middle 40s, with readings in the 30s in the elevated terrain. The expected temperatures are about normal for this time of the year.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Wednesday night through Friday .

Quiet weather persists for this part of the forecast as high pressure will gradually build in from the north. The result will be dry and seasonable conditions . though Friday should be a few degrees warmer than Thursday for most areas. A de-amplifying upper level wave will slide through during the day Thursday and this will bring some cloudy periods during the afternoon but no precip is expected. Friday will also see cloudiness begin to increase in the afternoon well in advance of a system to our south.

Friday night through Tuesday .

The main concern for this period continues to be the potential coastal system for early in the weekend. The 0z deterministic GFS had shifted N/W depicting a stronger storm closer to the coast due to phasing of southern and northern stream upper level energy. However the 12z GFS has backed off on this idea and is now in pretty good agreement with the EC and GEM on a weaker storm staying mainly out to sea. That said, still not highly confident on this scenario.

To start the period Friday evening, high pressure will be departing to the north and east with developing low pressure over the SE coast. In the upper levels there will be a trough extending from the Great Lakes south to the Gulf coast helping support development of this low. The main question will be whether pieces of energy from the southern and northern stream are able to phase which would result in a stronger system tracking close to the coast and potentially bringing the area significant precip. As mentioned, most of the deterministic guidance and GFS ensemble perturbations are suggesting this phasing won't occur meaning the storm will be weaker and track fairly far to the east of the area . giving parts of the area just a brush with lighter precip, if that. However things to note though are that this is still several days out and the upper level energy that will come into play is only just reaching the west coast so hasn't been well sampled by obs yet over successive forecast cycles. Also, as mentioned, 0z GFS had shown a stronger system tracking close to the coast as did some of its ensemble members. For this reason, keep chance POPs in the forecast for most of the region for the period Friday night through Saturday night. Highest POPs are over southern Delmarva and coastal NJ. Another thing to note though, due to lack of cold air in place if we do see precip from this system it would likely be rain or at least a mix of rain/snow near and S/E of the I-95 corridor so a big snowstorm is unlikely. The better chance of accumulating snow would be farther N/W but that's only if the storm tracks close enough.

Regardless of what happens Saturday, system should be pulling away Sunday so it should be a dry end to the weekend with variable cover and highs in the 40s.

The pattern stays progressive into next week so as the aformentioned system continues to move away expect an upper ridge to set up Monday along the east coast bringing sunshine and milder conditions. The next system could bring some showers by next Tuesday as temperatures remain mild.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight . VFR ceilings (between 4,000-5,000 feet) will gradually scatter out late. Northwesterly winds diminishing to less than 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . VFR with a few clouds around 5,000 feet. Northwesterly winds around 10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook . Wed night thru Fri . VFR Expected with light winds expected at generally around 5 knots or less.

Fri night/Sat night . MVFR or IFR possible with low CIGS and rain/snow . best chances areas near and S/E of I-95 corridor, especially MIV and ACY.

Sun . becoming VFR. West winds 10-15 knots.

MARINE. A northwest flow will continue over the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware for tonight and Wednesday. Speeds are expected to favor the 10 to 20 knot range. Wave heights on our ocean waters should be 2 to 4 feet, with waves on Delaware Bay generally ranging from 1 to 3 feet.

Outlook . Wed thru Fri . sub-SCA with fair weather.

Friday night through Sunday . Winds/seas may start to increase by the Saturday night and Sunday time frame, potentially resulting in SCA conditions by this time. However confidence is low on this.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . Gorse Short Term . Iovino Long Term . Fitzsimmons Aviation . Fitzsimmons/Gorse Marine . Fitzsimmons/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 4 mi51 min 43°F 41°F1015.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 24 mi51 min 43°F 42°F1015.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 29 mi45 min 44°F 42°F1015.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 32 mi63 min WNW 13 G 15 43°F 40°F1016.8 hPa (+1.7)24°F
CPVM2 36 mi51 min 43°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 38 mi45 min 43°F 1015.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 40 mi153 min NW 2.9 1015 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 41 mi27 min WNW 14 G 16 40°F 1016.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi63 min NNW 15 G 18
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 46 mi51 min 42°F 42°F1016 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 47 mi51 min 44°F 42°F1016.4 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 49 mi45 min 41°F 41°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD3 mi78 minNW 8 G 1410.00 miOvercast43°F26°F53%1015.6 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD17 mi78 minWNW 610.00 miOvercast43°F28°F57%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Cambridge, Choptank River, Maryland
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Cambridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:35 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:10 AM EST     1.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:34 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:39 PM EST     1.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:01 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-00.20.50.91.21.31.310.70.30-0.2-0.200.40.81.21.41.51.310.70.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:30 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:11 AM EST     0.47 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:35 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:30 AM EST     -0.38 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:00 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:01 PM EST     0.55 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:18 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:03 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:56 PM EST     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.5-0.20.10.40.50.40.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.200.30.50.60.50.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.