Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cherry Hill, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Clear skies expected across the area tonight. Light to calm winds favorable for radiational cooling will lead to overnight low temperatures in the 30s for most. Frost and Freeze headlines are out for those along and west of the Blue Ridge from 1AM to 9AM tonight. Overnight low temperatures will stay in the 40s for some along the I-95 corridor.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
High pressure continues through Saturday with dry conditions expected both days. A cold front draped across Pennsylvania will bring increased cloud cover to the northern half of the forecast area on Saturday. Winds remain relatively light both days, blowing out of the west/northwest.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the 60s to low 70s with overnight low temperatures in the 40s for most. Temperatures will be warmer on Saturday with highs in the 70s for most. Only those at highest elevations and along the Alleghenies will stay in the 60s. Overnight low temperatures on Saturday will be in the 50s for most.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Limited rain chances Sunday as a strong cold front crosses the region. Drier and much cooler for the early and middle part of next week.

A brief warm up is expected Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front and strengthening low pressure system over the Great Lakes region. Gusty south to southwesterly flow will yield highs in the mid to upper 70s and low 80s. A shower or two cannot be ruled out over the western mountains given the placement of a warm frontal boundary nearby. Most locations will remain dry until the approaching cold front and digging upper level trough from southern Canada cross the region. Current 12z deterministic/ensemble guidance continue to show a frontal late Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Clouds will increase west of the Alleghenies Sunday afternoon before advancing east Sunday evening into Sunday night.
Precipitation chances will remain limited overall, but continue to increase per the latest guidance. Highest confidence for rain will be west of the Blue Ridge and north of the I-66/US-50 corridor during the Sunday evening into early Monday timeframe. Confidence is lower for any measurable precipitation further south given the main energy source lifting well north and west of the region.

Gusty northwest flow takes over in the wake of the front Monday into Tuesday. Precipitation chances will come to an end in most locations outside of the western mountains where upslope will prevail. Some uncertainty remains in regards to additional precipitation chances over the western mountains due in part to the evolution of the deep upper level trough over the eastern U.S. Current 12z guidance suggest light upslope showers over the western mountains with probabilities right around 20 to 30 percent for both Monday and Tuesday. A couple of snowflakes cannot be ruled out on the highest peaks above 3500 feet with 850 mb temperatures nearing 0 degrees C late Monday into the day Tuesday. Outside of the upslope precipitation chances, temperatures look to plummet under gusty northwest flow. High temperatures will only reach into the mid 50s to low 60s Tuesday through Thursday next week. Overnight lows will fall into the 30s and 40s. Frost/freeze potential remains in question as the surface high lags over the upper Midwest, so winds and clouds could keep temperatures up. The trough axis does begin to move east Wednesday into Thursday, which will allow the high to build closer to the region leading to more of a widespread freeze potential.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through Saturday. Winds shift to westerly on Friday before shifting back to northwesterly on Saturday. A cold front draped to our north will bring increased cloud cover to all terminals except KCHO Saturday afternoon and through the overnight. No precipitation is expected through Saturday.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the middle part of next week. A low chance of showers is possible late Sunday evening into Sunday night mainly at terminals west of KMRB. South to southwesterly winds may gusts up to 20 kts on Sunday. By Monday, winds turn back toward the west and northwest with gusts up to 20 kts. Breezy conditions will likely linger Tuesday and Wednesday as the trough exits east and high pressure builds over the region.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through late tonight for the Chesapeake Bay south of Pooles Island and the Lower Tidal Potomac. Northerly winds continue to gust up to 20 knots, and up to 25 knots in the middle bay. Winds diminish Friday morning, with sub-SCA winds expected Friday afternoon through Saturday. Westerly winds are expected on Friday with winds shifting to northwesterly on Saturday.

SCA conditions return Sunday and Monday as an area of low pressure and cold front approach the region. Southerly channeling will ensue ahead of the front Sunday into Sunday night. Pressure rises in the wake of the front combined with an incoming trough axis will lead to continued SCA conditions under gusty west to northwest flow. Sub-SCA level winds return toward the end of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There will be two opportunities for brief surges into Action Stage along sensitive shoreline such as Baltimore, Annapolis, Straits Point, and Washington DC SW Waterfront. The first would be a snap- back as winds lighten late Friday, and the second would be on Sunday as southerly winds increase ahead of the next low pressure system.
No coastal flooding is explicitly forecast at this time.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for MDZ001-501.
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for MDZ003-502.
VA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for VAZ025>027-029- 503-504.
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for VAZ028-030-031.
WV...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ055-501>506.
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ050>053.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543.