Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cherry Hill, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Warmer temps Sunday with widespread shower and thunderstorm chances late as a cold front crosses.

2) A late season frost/freeze is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning west of the Blue Ridge. Moderating temps and more rain chances mid to to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer temps Sunday with widespread shower and thunderstorm chances late as a cold front crosses.

The lackluster shortwave disturbance from earlier this afternoon has kicked well north and east of the forecast area. Most locations ended up dry outside of a few brief showers over northeast/central MD and the western shore of the bay. With the upper level disturbance moving away expect gradually clearing skies for the remainder of the evening and into the overnight period. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 50s for most locations with upper 40s over the mountains/deeper shelter valleys.

Warmer temperatures are expected Sunday with more sunshine and highs for most pushing into the low 80s. This is ahead of an approaching cold front frontal boundary which looks to cross the area late Sunday night into Monday morning. The front will bring widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the area. The rain will be beneficial in nature with most of the guidance suggesting a quarter of an inch. Locally higher totals are possible pending the placement of a ripple of low pressure which looks to scoot by to the south along the front Monday morning. The rain will be quick to wrap up Monday afternoon and evening at the cold front sags south and east of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A late season frost/freeze is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning west of the Blue Ridge. Moderating temps and more rain chances mid to to late week.

High pressure builds overhead Monday night leading to a good radiational cooling set up with clear skies and light/calm winds.
Frost or near freezing temps could result in the sheltered valleys near and west of I-81. This could be rather impactful given the fact that we are approaching mid-May at this point which is a couple weeks to a month past the median last freeze for these areas.

Temperatures moderate Tuesday under south to southwesterly return flow as high pressure moves offshore. The warming trend will be more noticeable heading into Wednesday as a warm front lifts into the region, followed by a cold front and wave of low pressure Wednesday night into Thursday. This frontal system will bring a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms mid week, with guidance split on exactly how much rain falls over the area. Rain forecast to be beneficial in nature given ongoing drought.

Temps will actually trend warmer in the wake of the frontal system at the end of next week and into the upcoming weekend as large scale height rises commence.



AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through Sunday mid- afternoon. Some patchy fog may be noted at terminals across northeast MD where it did rain today as well as near bodies of water. Winds will remain out of the west and southwest this evening at less than 10 kts. Some gusts up to 15 kts are possible, especially near the bay/tidal Potomac. Winds will lighten and even become calm/variable this evening before turning back to the west Sunday at less than 10 kts.

Next chance for sub-VFR reductions arrives late SUnday afternoon into Monday morning as a cold front crosses the area. The front will bring widespread light to moderate showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the region. This could lead to brief vsby reductions at times as the front passes through. The front will cross Monday morning with VFR conditions expected to return Monday afternoon. Winds will shift from the west and southwest ahead of the front back to the north Monday morning and northwest Monday afternoon. Speeds will remain less than 15 kts with occasional gusts up to 20 kts over terminals near the ridges/bay.

VFR conditions are expected Tuesday with additional sub-VFR reductions possible Wednesday and Thursday as another front passes through.



MARINE
Sub-SCA level winds are expected to continue through Sunday afternoon before picking up again Sunday evening and Sunday night as a cold front crosses the waters. SCAs will be needed SUnday night into Monday for portions of the waters due to northerly channeling.
Additional SCAs are likely Tuesday into Wednesday due to channeling and another front crossing the region.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.