Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ironton, OH
 | Sunrise 6:16 AM Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 11:43 PM Moonset 7:51 AM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ironton, OH
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS61 KRLX 160246 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1046 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A warm front lifts north of the area this today bringing much warmer weather, along with several rounds of severe weather through Friday night, some of which could be significant.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1045 PM Thursday...
The forecast remains on track.
As of 715 PM Thursday...
No significant changes made to the forecast other than taking out mention of showers and storms for this evening as things should stay very quiet. Tweaked PoPs for the overnight into Friday morning to add in newer guidance which equated to minimal changes to the forecast. The bulk of the forecast remains on track.
As of 310 PM Thursday...
Key Points:
* Warm front lifts north of the area this afternoon/evening
* Several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms possible, with the greatest concern being late tonight into Friday morning, but especially late Friday afternoon into Friday night
An active near term period is expected with multiple rounds of showers/storms possible. At present, a surface warm front is lifting north across the central CWA, and will continue to traverse the rest of the forecast area over the next few hours, resulting in a warm afternoon, with highs topping out in the low to mid 80s across the lowlands. Additionally, isolated showers/storms are possible through this afternoon/evening.
While instability will be on the higher end (2,000-2,500 J/kg mixed-layer) following the passage of the front, forcing will be quite weak (differential heating/topographic effects) amid a noted cap. Activity has been quite muted this afternoon, but the potential for a strong to severe thunderstorm or two remains possible if storms are able to initiate despite the capping. The main hazards w/ convection today would be wind/hail.
The overnight will begin on the quiet side with mainly dry conditions expected across the forecast area. While not anticipated to be nearly as widespread as last night, some patchy mountain valley fog is expected to develop given weaker boundary layer flow further south/east. Another round of showers/storms then approaches the region later tonight from the north/west in association with convection further west that has yet to initiate. Current thinking is that by the time this activity reaches the forecast area, it should be mainly elevated in nature and in a weakening trend, although the potential for some strong to isolated severe storms does remains possible, with wind/hail being the primary hazards, with the greatest risk across northwest portions of the CWA This activity should exit the eastern portion of the forecast area by mid/late Friday morning. Lows tonight will be in the 60s across much of the forecast area.
Friday will be another warm day across the region with highs progged for the low 80s across the lowlands, with 70s in the mountains. A period of mainly dry weather is progged for the late morning and afternoon, with another round of thunderstorms expected beginning sometime in the late afternoon or early evening in the form of a MCS. Some timing/location uncertainty does still exist, but confidence is increasing in this feature moving across the CWA late afternoon into Friday night. Given such, SPC has upgraded much of the forecast area into a Enhanced Risk for late Friday into Friday night. The main hazard will be strong to significant damaging winds, but large hail and isolated embedded tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially given any discrete convection.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 245 PM Thursday...
Key Points:
* Ongoing outbreak of severe weather Friday night that could pose concerns for all hazards
* A succession of cold fronts will bring precipitation and severe weather to a close on Saturday
* Dry weather to round out the weekend
The forecast period opens up in the midst of severe weather brought forth by a bowing segment first originating in the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Friday afternoon. Ongoing uncertainty with this evolving system will dictate the severity factor Friday night, but as of this issuance, strong wording for damaging wind gusts and large hail were included through midnight Friday night. The risk for tornadoes and heavy downpours will also be probable in activity.
The low pressure system orchestrating this severe weather will be progressing through the Great Lakes region at the start of the weekend, and will drive a cold front through the forecast area on Saturday. This will bring precipitation to a gradual end and will push the severe risk into the eastern seaboard on Saturday. A reinforcing cold front will yield dry weather to round out the weekend in addition to cooling temperatures.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 245 PM Thursday...
The start of the work week grows more active as shortwave energy rounding an upper level ridge ventures into the area starting late Monday. Guidance then enters into a realm of various solutions for next week, but all point towards a more active state as the ridge breaks down and low pressure blankets the area with showers and more potential for thunderstorms.
Seasonable temperatures round out the extended period, with daytime highs ranging in the 60s and 70s, then toppling down into the 40s and 50s during the overnight periods.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 730 PM Thursday...
Cloud coverage will increase through this period and lower in heights to where by Friday morning CIGs will likely be MVFR across the northern sites. The southern sites will remain in VFR conditions during this period, expect for any thunderstorm activity that may occur which has potential during the late morning on Friday. Any shower activity may decrease VIS to MVFR or worse temporarily, however due to lack in confidence of timing left mention out of the TAFs. Winds will stay out of the southwest increasing in intensity by late morning to where gusts in the lower 20s is possible at all sites by the early afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There may be more thunderstorm activity with the passing disturbance Friday morning across the northern sites and all sites by the late afternoon.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/16/25 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are possible under convection Friday evening and Friday night, and then again Saturday afternoon.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1046 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A warm front lifts north of the area this today bringing much warmer weather, along with several rounds of severe weather through Friday night, some of which could be significant.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1045 PM Thursday...
The forecast remains on track.
As of 715 PM Thursday...
No significant changes made to the forecast other than taking out mention of showers and storms for this evening as things should stay very quiet. Tweaked PoPs for the overnight into Friday morning to add in newer guidance which equated to minimal changes to the forecast. The bulk of the forecast remains on track.
As of 310 PM Thursday...
Key Points:
* Warm front lifts north of the area this afternoon/evening
* Several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms possible, with the greatest concern being late tonight into Friday morning, but especially late Friday afternoon into Friday night
An active near term period is expected with multiple rounds of showers/storms possible. At present, a surface warm front is lifting north across the central CWA, and will continue to traverse the rest of the forecast area over the next few hours, resulting in a warm afternoon, with highs topping out in the low to mid 80s across the lowlands. Additionally, isolated showers/storms are possible through this afternoon/evening.
While instability will be on the higher end (2,000-2,500 J/kg mixed-layer) following the passage of the front, forcing will be quite weak (differential heating/topographic effects) amid a noted cap. Activity has been quite muted this afternoon, but the potential for a strong to severe thunderstorm or two remains possible if storms are able to initiate despite the capping. The main hazards w/ convection today would be wind/hail.
The overnight will begin on the quiet side with mainly dry conditions expected across the forecast area. While not anticipated to be nearly as widespread as last night, some patchy mountain valley fog is expected to develop given weaker boundary layer flow further south/east. Another round of showers/storms then approaches the region later tonight from the north/west in association with convection further west that has yet to initiate. Current thinking is that by the time this activity reaches the forecast area, it should be mainly elevated in nature and in a weakening trend, although the potential for some strong to isolated severe storms does remains possible, with wind/hail being the primary hazards, with the greatest risk across northwest portions of the CWA This activity should exit the eastern portion of the forecast area by mid/late Friday morning. Lows tonight will be in the 60s across much of the forecast area.
Friday will be another warm day across the region with highs progged for the low 80s across the lowlands, with 70s in the mountains. A period of mainly dry weather is progged for the late morning and afternoon, with another round of thunderstorms expected beginning sometime in the late afternoon or early evening in the form of a MCS. Some timing/location uncertainty does still exist, but confidence is increasing in this feature moving across the CWA late afternoon into Friday night. Given such, SPC has upgraded much of the forecast area into a Enhanced Risk for late Friday into Friday night. The main hazard will be strong to significant damaging winds, but large hail and isolated embedded tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially given any discrete convection.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 245 PM Thursday...
Key Points:
* Ongoing outbreak of severe weather Friday night that could pose concerns for all hazards
* A succession of cold fronts will bring precipitation and severe weather to a close on Saturday
* Dry weather to round out the weekend
The forecast period opens up in the midst of severe weather brought forth by a bowing segment first originating in the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Friday afternoon. Ongoing uncertainty with this evolving system will dictate the severity factor Friday night, but as of this issuance, strong wording for damaging wind gusts and large hail were included through midnight Friday night. The risk for tornadoes and heavy downpours will also be probable in activity.
The low pressure system orchestrating this severe weather will be progressing through the Great Lakes region at the start of the weekend, and will drive a cold front through the forecast area on Saturday. This will bring precipitation to a gradual end and will push the severe risk into the eastern seaboard on Saturday. A reinforcing cold front will yield dry weather to round out the weekend in addition to cooling temperatures.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 245 PM Thursday...
The start of the work week grows more active as shortwave energy rounding an upper level ridge ventures into the area starting late Monday. Guidance then enters into a realm of various solutions for next week, but all point towards a more active state as the ridge breaks down and low pressure blankets the area with showers and more potential for thunderstorms.
Seasonable temperatures round out the extended period, with daytime highs ranging in the 60s and 70s, then toppling down into the 40s and 50s during the overnight periods.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 730 PM Thursday...
Cloud coverage will increase through this period and lower in heights to where by Friday morning CIGs will likely be MVFR across the northern sites. The southern sites will remain in VFR conditions during this period, expect for any thunderstorm activity that may occur which has potential during the late morning on Friday. Any shower activity may decrease VIS to MVFR or worse temporarily, however due to lack in confidence of timing left mention out of the TAFs. Winds will stay out of the southwest increasing in intensity by late morning to where gusts in the lower 20s is possible at all sites by the early afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There may be more thunderstorm activity with the passing disturbance Friday morning across the northern sites and all sites by the late afternoon.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/16/25 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are possible under convection Friday evening and Friday night, and then again Saturday afternoon.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KHTS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KHTS
Wind History Graph: HTS
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of great lakes
Edit Hide
Charleston, WV,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE