Fairview Heights, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fairview Heights, IL

April 17, 2024 4:20 PM CDT (21:20 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 7:40 PM
Moonrise 12:49 PM   Moonset 2:42 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairview Heights, IL
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Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 242 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024


- A broken line of thunderstorms will move into the area from the northwest on Thursday morning. The line will continue moving from the northwest to southeast through the day. Storms are expected to strengthen and become severe during the late morning and afternoon. The highest potential for severe storms will be across east central and southeast Missouri as well as southwest and south central Illinois. Damaging winds up to 70 mph will be the primary threat. The storms could also produce large hail and possibly a tornado or two.

- Dry weather and below normal temperatures are expected for Friday through at least Sunday night.

(Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024


A short wave digging into the northern Plains is causing lee-side cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado this afternoon. This system will move into the central Plains tonight, and cause the low level jet to strengthen over Oklahoma and Kansas. GFS/RAP/NAM all show moderate to strong low level moisture convergence on the nose of the jet overnight across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, and all guidance subsequently spits out a broad area of precipitation associated with this moisture convergence. CAMs show this developing into an MCS overnight, which moves into northeast Missouri after 12Z Thursday. Guidance moves the surface low across Missouri into Illinois Thursday, and southerly flow ahead of the low brings 65-70 degree dew points temperatures up into the area ahead of the MCS. This rich low level moisture pushes CAPE values up to 2500-3000 J/Kg in the afternoon ahead of MCS and cold front associated with this low. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in the 40- 50kt range, and 0-3km shear will be around 30-40kts. With this kind of CAPE and shear, the storms should be able to strengthen and become severe during the late morning or early afternoon as they move into east central Missouri. The shear vectors aren't quite parallel to the line/cold front, but they're close enough that I think discrete cells are unlikely, and a severe MCS with damaging winds and some large hail is much more likely. 0-1km helicity is 100-200 m2/s2 so a tornado or two isn't out of the question. There are a couple of caveats to this scenario: 1) moisture return is uncertain as the Ozarks may block the higher dew point air from moving into our area from the south 2) cloud cover ahead of the front and line of storms may limit insolation. Either of these issues could significantly affect the instability available in the afternoon, and cause the storms to be weaker than expected. However, with all deterministic guidance as well as the CAMs showing strong instability resulting in an afternoon MCS, I feel pretty confident in this solution, and the SPC SWODY2 upgrade to "enhanced" across the southeastern 1/2 of our forecast area.


(Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Cooler and quieter weather is in store for the Mid-Mississippi Valley for Friday through at least Monday. A relatively cold surface high spills into the region behind the cold front Thursday night into Friday; and another short wave trough digs from the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley on Saturday which drives a reinforcing shot of cold air into the Mississippi Valley. The latest guidance shows temperatures for Friday through Monday morning dipping to between 5 to 10 degrees below normal for mid- late April with highs ranging from the mid 50s in northeast Missouri to in the mid 60s across the eastern Ozarks. The LREF is showing an 850mb temperature spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles of only a couple of degrees, and the surface temperature spread is only 3-5 degrees, so confidence in this cooler weather is high. Temperatures warm back up to around normal for Monday afternoon as the surface ridge axis finally moves east of the Mississippi Valley and low level flow swings back around to a southerly direction. The pattern turns more active again for Tuesday and Wednesday as another short wave digs from the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Current indications are that the return flow west of the surface ridge will bring enough moisture back into the Mid-Mississippi Valley for a round of showers, and possibly some thunderstorms. Latest deterministic guidance is showing relatively low CAPE values, and even max values on the LREF don't break 500 J/Kg on Tuesday and only scrape 1000 J/Kg on Wednesday, so current indications are that severe storms are unlikely. Of course, there's a long way to go until we get to next Tuesday/Wednesday, and the deep-layer shear looks pretty stout at 50+ kts, so this system will bear watching.


(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR flight conditions and gusty west-northwest winds will prevail this afternoon. Winds will diminish by early evening and become light and variable and then pick back up from the southeast overnight. An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to overspread the area from the northwest Thursday morning. Some storms could be strong with heavy rain, small hail and gusty winds. The storms will continue southeast across the area ahead of a cold front during the day on Thursday and are expected to strengthen during the afternoon across parts of east central and southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois. Storms during the afternoon will be capable of producing large hail and wind gusts in excess of 50kts.



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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KCPS ST LOUIS DOWNTOWN,IL 9 sm27 minWNW 11G2010 smClear82°F46°F28%29.85
KALN ST LOUIS RGNL,IL 22 sm30 minW 18G2610 smClear77°F45°F32%29.87
KSTL ST LOUIS LAMBERT INTL,MO 23 sm29 minWNW 14G2210 smA Few Clouds81°F48°F32%29.87
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St. Louis, MO,

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