Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Indian Head, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday July 29, 2021 6:32 PM EDT (22:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:47PMMoonset 10:49AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 439 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
.severe Thunderstorm watch 402 in effect until 9 pm edt this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 439 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will approach the area through this evening before crossing the region late tonight. A second, weaker front will cross the region Friday night. High pressure will build in for Saturday before another area of low pressure possibly affects the region Sunday. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Indian Head, MD
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location: 38.62, -77.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 291934 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 334 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will approach the area later today and move through tonight. A reinforcing front will move through tomorrow, with high pressure building in its wake for the first half of the weekend. Additional systems may impact the region from Sunday into the early to middle portions of next week as troughing becomes established over the eastern half of the country.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined MCV over western portions of our forecast area. Mainly showers accompany this feature at the moment, but cells are just starting to pop within the zone ahead of it. The expectation is that cells will intensify to the east of the Blue Ridge over the next 1-2 hours as ascent in advance of the MCV overspreads the area of higher instability to the east of the Blue Ridge. Current mesoanalysis shows around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE near the spine of the Blue Ridge, with instability increasing with eastward extent to around 1500 J/kg along the bay. SPC Mesoanalysis shows a belt of around 40 knots of flow at 700 hPa along the Mason-Dixon line, decreasing to around 25 knots at the southern CWA border. At 500 hPa, 40-50 knots of flow is analyzed over the entire CWA. 18z IAD sounding matches up well with those parameters, showing 823 J/kg of MLCAPE, 36 knots of flow at 700 hPa, 40 knots of flow at 500 hPa, and an effective bulk shear value of 43 knots. Given the overlap of shear and instability to the east of the Blue Ridge, supercells appear possible, with upscale growth into bowing segments also possible. With a supercellular storm mode, damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are all possible. The greatest tornado threat in our area will likely reside across northeastern and north central Maryland, where the greatest low- level shear resides. For that reason, those locations are in a Tornado Watch, while the rest of the CWA is in a severe thunderstorm watch. Flooding looks to be a low, but non-zero threat as storms will be moving along at a fast clip.

In terms of timing, the main round of severe weather is expected to be with the storms developing now (3 PM) ahead of the MCV. This area of storms is nearing the Blue Ridge now, and should progress eastward across the area over the next 2-3 hours, moving over the bay by around 6 PM or so. More isolated activity is possible behind this initial activity. Another more focused round of storms may form across the Ohio Valley late this afternoon and move toward the Allegheny Front this evening. Models are in lesser agreement regarding activity behind the initial round with the MCV, but a few storms could potentially linger into the overnight since the cold front will still be situated off to our north and west. The front will press southward through the area during the second half of the overnight, bringing chances for storms to an end.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. By daybreak tomorrow, the cold front will be situated just to our south, and will continue to push further to our south throughout the day. Much drier air will gradually advect into the area in northwesterly flow behind the front, with dewpoints dropping from the upper 60s around daybreak to the 50s by evening. Cold advection aloft will largely be offset by diurnal heating, with high temperatures still climbing into the mid to upper 80s. Mostly sunny skies are expected along with a northwesterly breeze. Winds may gust to in excess of 20 mph during the afternoon hours.

A reinforcing cold front will move through tomorrow night, with cooler and even drier air moving into the are in its wake. Lows Friday night will dip into the 50s across the northwestern half of the forecast area, with lower 60s across the southeastern half of the area.

A mix of sun and some high clouds is expected on Saturday as high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. Winds will be lighter compared to tomorrow. Temperatures will only reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s, and dewpoints will drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s, leading to an uncharacteristically cool day for late July, with well below normal humidity values.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A mid-level trough of low pressure and a surface front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Highs in the middle 80s.

Weak high pressure will build in behind the front and bring dry and slightly cooler temperatures into the region Sunday night and Monday. Highs Monday lower to middle 80s.

As for Tuesday and Wednesday, a variety of uncertainties expected with a possible front dropping in from the northwest, a possible coastal low to the south and southeast, and timing of each. Should the front win out on verifying, then severe weather could be possible mainly in the western and central zones. If the coastal low wins, then more of a persistent modest rain could evolve which could lead to some localized flooding in the heaviest activities. Highs each day will be in the middle to upper 80s.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Confidence is increasing that thunderstorms will impact the terminals during the mid to late afternoon hours today. TEMPOs have been introduced into the TAFs where the threat is greatest to narrow in on timing. Coverage of storms is expected to decrease moving into this evening, but at least some threat for an isolated storm or two will last through the first half of the overnight hours.

VFR conditions are expected for both tomorrow and Saturday. Winds may gust to around 20 knots out of the northwest tomorrow afternoon. Lighter winds are expected on Saturday as high pressure builds toward the area from the Ohio Valley.

Isolated showers or a thunderstorm near a few of the terminals could reduce conditions to MVFR briefly; otherwise, VFR conditions expected Sunday through Monday night. Winds southwest 5 to 10 knots Sunday, becoming northwest 5 knots Sunday night. Winds northwest becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots Monday. Winds light and variable Monday night.

MARINE. Winds will gradually increase over the waters today. SCAs are in effect later this afternoon into this evening for southerly channeling. SMWs will likely be needed over the waters this afternoon into this evening. Winds in excess of 50 knots, large hail and even isolated waterspouts may be possible in association with storms this afternoon into this evening. SCA winds are expected again tomorrow in northwesterly flow behind a cold front. This SCA may eventually need to be extended into tomorrow night as a reinforcing cold front moves through. Lighter west to northwesterly winds are expected over the waters on Saturday.

No marine hazards expected Sunday through Monday night. Winds southwest 10 knots Sunday, then northwest becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots Sunday night and Monday. Winds light and variable Monday night.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will result in some locations reaching action stage through tonight. Minor flooding is most likely to occur at the most sensitive sites, such as Annapolis. As the winds become northwest behind the front on Friday, the anomalies will decrease.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ531>533-539>541. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ534-543. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ537.

SYNOPSIS . KJP NEAR TERM . KJP SHORT TERM . KJP LONG TERM . KLW AVIATION . KLW/KJP MARINE . KLW/KJP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . CPB/KLW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 20 mi45 min E 1.9 G 6 81°F 85°F1010.4 hPa
NCDV2 22 mi45 min W 2.9 G 7 85°F 88°F1010.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 28 mi63 min SW 4.1 83°F 1009 hPa72°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 42 mi39 min S 7.8 G 14 82°F 83°F2 ft1011.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 45 mi45 min SSW 8.9 G 12 85°F 84°F1009.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 45 mi33 min SSE 9.9 G 11 82°F 82°F1011 hPa (-1.7)77°F
44063 - Annapolis 46 mi39 min S 9.7 G 12 81°F 82°F1 ft1010.8 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi45 min SE 4.1 G 7 85°F 84°F1009.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 46 mi45 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 83°F 1010 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi45 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA8 mi37 minW 10 G 2010.00 miA Few Clouds83°F74°F75%1010.7 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA9 mi37 minSW 7 G 165.00 miThunderstorm Haze78°F71°F79%1010.8 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA18 mi37 minS 810.00 miFair77°F74°F90%1011 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA19 mi41 minVar 410.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain84°F74°F72%1010.5 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA20 mi38 minN 07.00 miThunderstorm74°F71°F91%1012.2 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD23 mi97 minSSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F71°F62%1009.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAA

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE5CalmSE5N4SE3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5S5SE6S4S6S4SE4W10
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1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6CalmCalmNW3NW4NW8NW8N5W11
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2 days agoSE6N8E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE4CalmCalmNW5S6S4

Tide / Current Tables for High Point, Occoquan Bay, Virginia
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High Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:07 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:53 AM EDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:21 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.51.20.90.60.40.20.30.61.11.41.61.71.61.30.90.60.30.20.20.50.91.31.6

Tide / Current Tables for Marshall Hall, Maryland
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Marshall Hall
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:34 AM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:45 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:53 PM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:59 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.52.21.71.20.70.40.30.61.11.72.12.42.52.31.81.20.70.40.20.40.81.42

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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