Thursday, January21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Choptank, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:14PM Thursday January 21, 2021 11:20 PM EST (04:20 UTC) Moonrise 11:58AMMoonset 12:49AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 945 Pm Est Thu Jan 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am est Friday through late Friday night...
Rest of tonight..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of snow through the day. Rain. Snow through the night.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
ANZ500 945 Pm Est Thu Jan 21 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters late tonight, with another reinforcing cold front pushing through the region on Friday. High pressure over the midwest will build eastward through the weekend. Low pressure may impact the region early next week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for portions of the waters through the weekend. A gale warning may be required for portions of the waters Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Choptank, MD
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location: 38.68, -75.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 220210 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 910 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. A clipper system will cross from Ontario into New England through Friday, bringing a cold front to our region. Low pressure will remain across eastern Canada through Saturday, while high pressure builds across the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes and eventually into our area by Sunday. This will keep strong west to northwest flow across the Mid Atlantic through Sunday. A low pressure system will pass through the Ohio Valley Monday before a secondary low develops and become dominant south of the area Monday night into Tuesday. High Pressure then builds into the area later Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Skies cleared out across much of the region, except for the southern Poconos and far northern New Jersey, and with light winds, radiational cooling has allowed for temps to drop off rapidly. Will lower overnight lows by several degrees as a result.

Still cannot rule out some flurries across portions of northeastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey as a short wave/vorticity impulse moves across the region and lapse rates steepen in combination with a slight increase in low-mid level moisture. Accumulating snow is not expected.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Friday will start off fairly quiet, but things could become more active by late morning into the afternoon and evening hours. Low pressure will move across New England through the day, which will eventually bring a frontal boundary across the Mid Atlantic region. Meanwhile, high pressure remains well to our west across the Upper Mississippi Valley. This will keep a strong pressure gradient in place leading to a steady west to northwest flow across the area and winds could gust 20-30 mph at times on Friday. The other thing to watch out for Friday will be the potential for rain/snow/graupel showers or sprinkles/flurries. Within the west to northwest flow, lapse rates will be moderately steep, while there will be some enhanced moisture across the area. Some enhanced lift from multiple short wave/vorticity impulses and approaching surface boundary could help lead to a slight chance of snow showers/flurries or rain showers/sprinkles Friday into Friday night. This is especially true for portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey along and north of the I-78 corridor where lapse rates are steepest and moisture is highest. It would not be out of the question for a brief period of moderate to heavy snow for higher elevations. However, it would also not be surprising to see some flurries/sprinkles make it down to the I-95 corridor and portions of southern New Jersey. This could be another one of those situations where temperatures warm up enough that it will not be true snow showers/flurries for some areas, rather snow pellets/graupel for some areas as the snow partially melts before reaching the ground.

The steep lapse rates pull to our east Friday evening as the frontal boundary moves eastward as well, so any remaining flurries will end during the evening hours Friday. Then strong northwest flow will remain in place across the Mid Atlantic region. Low pressure will remain across eastern Canada, while high pressure moves out of the Upper Mississippi Valley and across the Ohio River Valley/Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday, and toward the northeast Saturday night. Winds will remain gusty across the area, especially during the day Saturday when gusts could reach 25-35 mph, with locally higher gusts.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Summary . A storm system with wintry precipitation will be possible Monday PM into Tuesday, but details remain highly uncertain. Generally cool and quiet in the remainder of the extended, although another storm system may approach the area in the Thursday timeframe.

Synoptic Overview . The extended begins with Canadian High Pressure sprawled across much of the eastern US and, as you might expect, mid-lvl confluence overtop this feature due to the configuration of upstream ridging and a downstream closed low. A weak northern branch system will crash into this High Sunday night, weakening it slightly, but shifting it slightly eastward. This sets up a bit of a CAD wedge over our region Monday (although not textbook) with generally E-NE low-lvl flow. Meanwhile a deamplifying shortwave will progress towards our area with the SW with system's primary low moving into the vicinity of the Ohio Valley late Monday and then weakening/transferring its energy to a secondary low developing over the Atlantic. Considerable uncertainty still remains on how quickly the interior-tracking primary low weakens and when/how far south the coastal low develops. After this system cold High Pressure will build in from Canada on Wednesday, with perhaps another storm system approaching late week.

Details . Sunday will be cool and dry with highs generally in the low to mid 30s, and dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. Winds will finally begin to relax during the day as the axis of the weakening High moves closer to the area.

The most active period of the extended remains the Monday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon timeframe when the aformentioned shortwave and complex surface low setup move over the area. 12Z guidance (in general) did trend a little more amplified with the upper-level system thus allowing the primary-low to progress a bit further north before falling apart, which in turn slightly delays the formation of the secondary low. The envelope of sensible weather possibilities remains large, with snow rapidly changing to mix from S-N in the most amplified/northward tracking solutions (UKMET), to the mix line stalling over the area, before transitioning back to snow on the back end (ECMWF), to generally pure snow more focused over the southern half of the area (GFS). Although not explicitly shown in the 12Z deterministic suite, the possibility of the wave being suppressed and the bulk of the precip shield remaining to our south still remains on the table, and this is particularly highlighted by a camp of GEFS members.

In terms of forecast changes, did bump up PoPs in the Monday PM, Tuesday AM period, and actually have likely PoPs over the southern half of the area for this period. Also trended things a bit colder (particularly for Tuesday) as similar to previous forecaster am not buying the more amplified UKMET/CMC solutions given that the hemispheric blocking pattern would tend to in general favor more suppression (although perhaps not enough to keep the system missing us entirely). Since we are still beyond the mesoscale model window (and the upper-level system itself is still offshore the western US), kept ptypes as only rain and snow although in a perfect prog world, most of the scenarios would at least bring some FZRA/IP threat to portions of our area as warm air aloft moves overtop the CAD wedge.

After the system passes on Tuesday, Cold and strong (near 1040mb) Canadian High Pressure builds towards our area on Wed, before another storm system approaches the area Thursday. Given uncertainty with the early week system think generally 20-30 PoPs will suffice at present, given the potential of the late week system being suppressed south of the area.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR. West winds generally around 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Friday . Mostly VFR, possibly briefly lowering to MVFR for ABE and RDG at times in the morning. There is a slight chance of snow showers or flurries, especially for ABE and RDG, but they were left out of the TAFs at this time as confidence is low in occurrence. West to northwest winds 10-20 knots, gusting 20-25 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Friday night-Saturday night . Mostly VFR, West to northwest winds 5- 10 knots, then increasing to 10-20 knots Saturday, then back to 5-10 knots Saturday night. Winds gusting 20-30 knots with locally higher gusts possible, strongest during the daytime hours Saturday. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . VFR conditions expected. Northwesterly winds initially 10-15kts gusting up to 20 kt gradually decreasing in the afternoon and then becoming light and variable overnight. Moderate confidence.

Monday/Tuesday . Deteriorated flight conditions in snow,mix, or rain will be possible over portions of the area Monday into Tuesday but confidence in precip types and timing remains low. Variable winds on Monday, then favoring the NE quarter of the compass on Tuesday. Low confidence.

MARINE. Tonight through Friday night . Small Craft Advisory remains in place through at least Friday night. There may be a lull in wind gusts this evening, before winds increase again overnight and continue into at least Friday night.

The winds will take longer to pick up on the Delaware Bay so that Small Craft Advisory won't start until later tonight but also runs through at least Friday night.

Outlook .

Saturday-Saturday night . Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely continue through Saturday night, with the possibility of Gale force winds possible Saturday.

Sunday-Monday . Generally sub-SCA conditions prevailing.

Monday night/Tuesday . Potential of SCA-lvl winds and seas, but this is dependent upon track and intensity of a low pressure system.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Carr Near Term . MPS/Robertson Short Term . Robertson Long Term . Carr Aviation . Carr/Robertson Marine . Carr/Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 10 mi50 min 43°F 41°F1005.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 26 mi44 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 44°F 41°F982.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 30 mi50 min 46°F 1006.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi80 min W 9.9 G 9.9 46°F 41°F1006.5 hPa (+1.3)20°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 32 mi50 min 44°F 41°F1005.9 hPa
CPVM2 32 mi50 min 45°F 22°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 35 mi50 min 38°F 41°F1005.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi50 min 41°F 42°F1005.9 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 40 mi104 min NW 9.9 G 12 44°F 39°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 41 mi50 min Calm 32°F 1006 hPa29°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 45 mi50 min 42°F 43°F1005.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 48 mi50 min 46°F 1005.3 hPa
FSNM2 48 mi50 min 46°F 1004.7 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 49 mi38 min WSW 9.7 G 9.7 45°F 42°F1007 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 49 mi50 min 1005.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi62 min W 7 G 9.9

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD11 mi25 minN 010.00 miFair35°F31°F84%1007.1 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD11 mi25 minW 410.00 miFair34°F30°F87%1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5S5SE6S74
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmS5NW12CalmNW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Choptank, Choptank River, Maryland
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Choptank
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:49 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:51 AM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:05 AM EST     1.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:09 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:43 PM EST     0.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.50.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.20.10.50.81.11.21.210.80.60.40.30.20.30.40.70.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for Dover Bridge, Choptank River, Maryland
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Dover Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:49 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:56 AM EST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:40 PM EST     1.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:14 PM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.60.3-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3-00.30.71.11.31.31.210.70.50.30.20.30.40.60.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.