Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Choptank, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:34PM Sunday July 5, 2020 4:40 AM EDT (08:40 UTC) Moonrise 8:18PMMoonset 4:57AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 437 Am Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Rest of the overnight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Today..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 437 Am Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the atlantic will control the weather pattern through Tuesday. Low pressure will develop to the south Wednesday and it may impact the waters late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Choptank, MD
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location: 38.68, -75.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 050717 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 317 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A series of surface boundaries will meander across the region through early in the week when high pressure toward the west and prevailing southerly flow begin to take control. A summer-like pattern will then persist throughout the week with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected most days along with above average temperatures. A coastal storm may impact the region later in the week and into next weekend as it moves north from the Carolinas.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Weak cold front extends from northern New Jersey, down along the I- 95 corridor, and into southern Pennsylvania. This front will continue to sag southward through the day. An upper trough lies over the Northeast and some weak shortwaves will slide down the trough and through portions of southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delmarva.

Any lingering showers across portions of northern New Jersey will taper off this morning. Patchy fog this morning will dissipate shortly after sunrise.

With the front essentially bisecting the forecast area, there will be two different air masses over the region. North of around I-195, surface dew points will be in the mid to upper 50s with highs in the mid 80s in the southern Poconos, and in the upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere.

South of I-195, surface dew points will be in the upper 60s to around 70, and highs will top off in the low to mid 90s, with the highest temps along the I-95 corridor from Newark to Trenton to Philly. Max heat index values will top off in the upper 90s across interior portions of Delmarva and interior portions of southern new Jersey.

In these areas, surface based CAPE and MU CAPE values will rise to 2500-3000 J/kg. As the combination of the aforementioned cold front and shortwaves sag into these areas, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. Will keep PoPs capped at chance, as it does not look like convection will be organized, but hi-res short term models show storms firing up in these areas. With moisture pooling across Delmarva and southern New Jersey, there will be enough energy to support convection, and even some stronger storms.

Downdraft CAPE values will be upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg in those areas as well, so some strong thunderstorm wind gusts are possible. Will add gusty winds enhanced wording to the forecast.

PWATs will be between 1.5-1.75 inches, so locally heavy rain is possible. HREF ensemble mean 6-hr QPF forecast showing over one inch of QPF across portions of southeast Delaware this afternoon, so this is something to watch out for, especially after 1pm.

Important to note that convection will not be widespread, and not everybody in Delmarva and southern New Jersey will experience thunderstorms today. But those that do can expect strong thunderstorm wind gusts and heavy rain.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/. Storms taper off early this evening as the cold front pushes south and shortwaves depart. High pressure builds in from the west. Skies clear out and winds become nearly calm.

Possible for patchy fog to develop after midnight tonight, especially in areas where it rain this afternoon. However, there will be enough ripples in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere to keep widespread dense fog from developing.

Lows tonight will be in the mid and upper 60s for most of New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania, and in the low 70s in the urban corridor from Trenton to Philly, and across Delmarva.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Long term forecast update: No significant changes were made with this update. Overall, a slightly warmer than average period is forecast through the week as synoptic scale ridging builds with continued chances for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms most days.

For Monday, a few ripples in the mid-level flow will be enough to initiate showers and thunderstorms. Convection could certainly become locally severe as a high CAPE and DCAPE thermodynamic environment will be in place. MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and SBCAPE nearing 4000 J/kg is expected along with DCAPE in the 1000-1400 J/kg range, steep low level lapse rates, and some mid- level dry air. Bulk shear is low though, only 15-20 kts, so convection will likely be single to multi-cellular and pulsy. Microburst potential is not out of the question with any of the more robust cores that develop. Also cannot rule out severe criteria hail as well as mid-level lapse rates are not too shabby around 7 C/km. The best severe potential looks to be from the 4 PM to 8 PM time frame, although showers and storms could develop and persist outside of this time frame.

A more organized synoptic scale system may impact the area later in the week in the form of a coastal storm, where more widespread precipitation is possible, however uncertainty still remains with regard to the evolution of this system. Details beyond Monday follow in the previous discussion below .

Previous discussion . A quiet start to the extended Tuesday as ridging expands eastward across the eastern U.S. ahead of a developing synoptic trough across the West Coast. The stalled fronts mentioned previously mentioned in the the synopsis above will begin to retreat northward as a warm front. To our north, a potent shortwave and surface low look to move across central Canada into the Hudson Bay region. Meanwhile, a southern stream perturbation will work its way across the Gulf Coast as surface low pressure begins to form. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms both afternoons appear likely with the front in the vicinity and forecast SB CAPE values from 1000 to potentially 3000 J/kg. Highs will be seasonably warm in the upper 80s to low 90s.

The aforementioned low to our south looks to enter the Carolinas Thursday, but this is where model discrepancy becomes more noticeable. The GFS takes the center inland across the Piedmont, while the EC keeps the center off the coast. Another factor of question is how this surface low will interact with an approaching shortwave trough across the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. If the GFS prediction has its way, a wetter forecast looks to take place for our region, but if the low stays well enough offshore, we may remain sandwiched between both features, going mostly unscathed.

Am somewhat more inclined to believe the EC at this time given previous environmental support for cut-off lows this year, but kept wide chance PoPs for the region through the weekend. Wouldn't call it a washout, but will want to monitor the forecast as model agreement on storm track solidifies. Highs look to remain seasonable in the mid to upper 80s across the region Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Generally VFR. Scattered SHRA/TSRA possible at KILG, KMIV, and KACY this afternoon. Brief IFR conditions and strong thunderstorm wind gusts are possible at these sites should storms pass over the terminal. LGT/VRB winds this morning, becoming W-SW 5- 10 kt this afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . Generally VFR, except sub-VFR in fog possible at KMIV and KACY, especially if thunderstorms develop there this afternoon. SW winds 5 kt or less. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Monday through Thursday . Prevailing VFR expected, however scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally between 18Z and 06Z each day, may locally lower restrictions. Winds will be generally southerly around 5-10 kts.

MARINE. Today through tonight . Conditions will be below Small Craft Advisory conditions with S-SW winds 10-15 kt. Seas on the ocean will range from 2-3 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over Delaware Bay and southern New Jersey and Delaware ocean waters this afternoon that could result in wind gusts 30-35 kt and VSBY restrictions in heavy rain.

Outlook .

Conditions are forecast to remain below advisory criteria through Thursday, however southerly winds may gust up to 20 kts at times. Seas will be generally 2-3 feet. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday through Thursday, which may locally increase winds and seas.

Rip Currents . There is a low risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents today and Monday. Conditions may become locally moderate today at some beaches across southern New Jersey should southerly flow be a bit stronger than currently forecast. Scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds are possible at southern New Jersey and Delaware beaches this afternoon as well.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. High tide is upcoming for the tidal portion of the Delaware River and its tributaries. Although some spots may touch minor thresholds, they should fall below Advisory thresholds, so minor flooding should be highly localized.

For the high tide Sunday evening: With winds shifting slightly off shore, it appears that only spotty minor flooding is possible at this time.

Tidal flooding is not expected on the upper eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Staarmann Near Term . CMS/MPS Short Term . MPS Long Term . Davis/Staarmann Aviation . MPS/Staarmann Marine . MPS/Staarmann Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 10 mi71 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 74°F 84°F1014.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 26 mi41 min WSW 9.7 G 12 77°F 83°F1 ft
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 30 mi71 min S 5.1 G 7 1014.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi41 min S 12 G 13 77°F 81°F1015 hPa (+0.0)75°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 32 mi71 min S 7 G 8 78°F 84°F1014.2 hPa
CPVM2 32 mi71 min 78°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 35 mi71 min S 5.1 G 8 77°F 82°F1013.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi71 min SW 6 G 7 76°F 82°F1014.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 40 mi71 min SSW 6 G 9.9 78°F 82°F1014.2 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 41 mi131 min S 4.1 1014 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 45 mi71 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 71°F 72°F1014.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 48 mi71 min SSW 5.1 G 6 76°F 1013.9 hPa
FSNM2 48 mi71 min SSW 4.1 G 7 75°F 1013.9 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 49 mi71 min SW 12 G 13 1014.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi71 min SW 7 G 9.9

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD11 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair74°F72°F95%1015.6 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD11 mi46 minN 09.00 miFair72°F71°F100%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE6NE7NE7NE5N6E55N76N84SE4SE4SE4S3SE5SE5CalmCalmSE3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmNW4CalmN86
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4NW66----NW5N7NW8W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3N5NE7CalmCalm
2 days ago--CalmCalmN36NE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Choptank, Choptank River, Maryland
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Choptank
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 05:22 AM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:08 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:31 PM EDT     1.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:37 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.611.62.32.83.13.12.82.521.51.10.80.60.71.11.41.71.71.51.20.90.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Dover Bridge, Choptank River, Maryland
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Dover Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:57 AM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:13 PM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:06 PM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.50.91.52.22.83.13.33.12.82.31.81.30.90.70.711.41.71.81.71.41.10.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.