Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Choptank, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:13PM Monday January 20, 2020 2:11 PM EST (19:11 UTC) Moonrise 3:26AMMoonset 1:38PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1242 Pm Est Mon Jan 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
This afternoon..N winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of rain through the night.
ANZ500 1242 Pm Est Mon Jan 20 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build eastward from the northern plains during the first half of the week, then move offshore during the second half of the week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Choptank, MD
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location: 38.68, -75.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 201847 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 147 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong high pressure centered well to our west today will gradually build closer tonight and Tuesday, then settle right over our region Wednesday and Thursday. The high then weakens some and shifts to our east Friday. Low pressure will arrive on Saturday, then exit the region on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A cold afternoon in progress despite plenty of sunshine. An upper- level trough will continue to shift east of New England into this evening. Another upper-level trough with a impressive mid level low center in the mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon will continue to dive southeastward through tonight. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge entering the western Plains this afternoon and tonight will gradually push strong surface high pressure eastward. We therefore remain within a northerly flow regime on the east side of the surface high.

While the center of the surface high is well to our west through tonight, a tightened pressure gradient remains across our region. This along with vertical mixing is resulting in a gusty wind this afternoon, adding a wind chill factor. Despite this setup, it looks like many areas will at least partially decouple tonight. This should occur more and sooner in the sheltered areas (i.e. NJ Pine Barrens). While it will be a very cold night (teens and some single digits), the temperature trend will depend on the winds. We weighted the low temperatures much closer to the colder guidance, especially in the typically colder locales, as the winds diminish along with a lack of clouds and a very dry air mass. There could be some mainly high level clouds in parts of the area toward daybreak especially in the Pocono region, however this should not have any significant impacts on the temperatures.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/. An upper-level trough will dominate the East through Tuesday, with this being comprised of two troughs. One of which amplifies once again across New England and the second one slides across the southeast states. These will have little affect on our sensible weather as strong high pressure still centered well to our west slides closer but does extend into our area. While the pressure gradient is forecast to be still present, the overall mixing and flow is weaker and therefore less wind is expected compared to today (Monday).

It will be another cold day, with just slightly warmer afternoon high temperatures compared to this afternoon (Monday). We used mostly a MOS blend with continuity for the high temperatures. Lots of sunshine expected, although some mainly high level clouds may occur at times in some areas given the presence of the aformentioned troughs aloft north and south of us.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. The main feature of the extended will be a large area of high pressure that builds into the Mid-Atlantic through the course of the week. The airmass starts off on the cold side and below the climatological normals but will moderate each day and reach near normal through mid-week before continuing to warm to above normal temperatures by the end of the work week.

Tuesday night should feature good radiational cooling as there will be very limited clouds, if any at all, and little to no wind. Temperatures will then bottom out in the mid teens to lower 20s with cooler spots in the Poconos and northwest New Jersey.

For Wednesday, temperatures should be warming with the flow becoming very light across the region with high starting to build overhead. Highs will start to rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s (much closer to the normals for late January) during the daytime before dropping off again at night into the teens to lower 20s, although areas near the coast may remain in the mid to upper 20s overnight.

Clouds will increase starting on Thursday as the high slides overhead and starts to push to the east. Increasing cloudiness will then continue into Friday in advance of next system developing to our west/southwest and its movement towards our area. However, the increased cloudcover will not be enough to stop the air at the surface from warming each day and raising temperatures back above normal for late January. For Thursday temperatures will warm even further and reach well into the 40s across the forecast area. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 40s and potentially reaching into the lower 50s as far north as the I-95 corridor. These highs will be on average around 10 degrees warmer than normal through the forecast area on Friday.

Model guidance continues to show a primary low moving from the plains and into the Ohio Valley with a secondary low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico and tracking along the northern Gulf and then up into the Mid-Atlantic around Saturday. The primary low occludes and weakens as the secondary low starts to deepen and strengthen as it approaches our area. Timing and location of the center of the low are still unsure as it could arrive as early as Saturday morning or later in the day. Timing will be important as temperatures will help to dictate the precipitation type as the storm enters and then moves through the region. One thing that is consistent so far is that it looks like we will have an abundance of warm air across much of the region with pockets of colder air across portions of our northern areas. Thermal profiles indicate that some mixing may occur, especially Saturday morning, before the warm air fully surges northward which could lead to some freezing rain or sleet so this will definitely be something to keep an eye on as the system develops through the week. The system is expected to pull away from our area on Sunday, with an end to the precipitation occuring from west to east, and the potential return of some slightly cooler air.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon . VFR SKC. North-northwest winds 12-16 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR SKC. North-northwest winds diminishing to 5-10 knots in the evening, then becoming light and variable at several terminals. High confidence.

Tuesday . VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming northwesterly around 10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook . Tuesday night and Wednesday . VFR conditions expected. Winds becoming light and variable. High confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday . VFR conditions expected. Light and variable winds. High confidence.

Friday . VFR conditions expected. Increasing cloudiness with the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions and rain towards Friday night. Light north to northeast winds, becoming east to southeast around 5 knots. Generally high confidence with lower confidence on timing of lower conditions during the evening/night.

MARINE. A cold northwesterly flow will continue through Tuesday, however it will also be weakening some. Some downward trend in the surface winds are noted this afternoon, however gusts to around 25 knots will continue for many areas at least into this evening. We are planning to drop the Small Craft Advisory early for at least the upper Delaware Bay, otherwise will leave the advisory up through midnight tonight elsewhere for now. For Tuesday, the conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria within a continued north-northwest flow regime.

Outlook . Tuesday night through Thursday . Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Seas are expected to be around 1 to 3 feet. Winds will generally be out of the northwest 10 to 15 knots on Tuesday night diminishing to 5 to 10 knots for Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday . Seas will build through the day and may start to approach 5 feet by midday/early afternoon on Friday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for seas by Friday afternoon. Winds will generally be light but will increase out of the east/southeast later in the day, remaining well below advisory criteria.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ430-431- 450>455.

Synopsis . Gorse/Meola Near Term . Gorse Short Term . Gorse Long Term . Meola Aviation . Gorse/Meola Marine . Gorse/Meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 10 mi65 min 31°F 40°F1027.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi71 min NNW 16 G 19 31°F 41°F1028.5 hPa (+0.0)7°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 32 mi65 min 32°F 36°F1027.5 hPa
CPVM2 32 mi59 min 32°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 35 mi53 min 32°F 1027.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi53 min 32°F 43°F1027.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 40 mi65 min 30°F 40°F1028.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 41 mi101 min N 6 -23°F 1027 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 45 mi53 min 30°F 39°F1026.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 48 mi53 min 31°F 1027.9 hPa
FSNM2 48 mi71 min 30°F 1027 hPa (-0.7)
44042 - Potomac, MD 49 mi35 min NNW 19 G 23 31°F 44°F1027.3 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 49 mi65 min 33°F 1026.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi71 min NNW 14 G 19

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD11 mi86 minNW 1410.00 miClear34°F8°F35%1028.8 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD11 mi86 minN 12 G 2110.00 miFair32°F8°F37%1027.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS7S8S9S5S6
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2 days agoNW13
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N3N6N7NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SW54SE4SE9S6SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Choptank, Choptank River, Maryland
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Choptank
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:00 AM EST     0.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:49 AM EST     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:17 PM EST     1.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:37 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:46 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.90.60.3-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.10.51.11.51.71.71.51.30.90.60.2-0-0.10.10.4

Tide / Current Tables for Dover Bridge, Choptank River, Maryland
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Dover Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:35 AM EST     1.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:54 AM EST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:37 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:52 PM EST     1.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:51 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.8110.80.40-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.20.30.91.41.81.81.71.51.10.70.30-0.10.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.