Sunday, January26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Vernon, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:24PM Sunday January 26, 2020 4:40 PM EST (21:40 UTC) Moonrise 8:37AMMoonset 7:09PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 337 Pm Est Sun Jan 26 2020
Rest of this afternoon..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ500 337 Pm Est Sun Jan 26 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Northwest flow in the wake of low pressure centered over new england and the canadian maritimes will continue through Monday. An upper level disturbance will pass south of the waters Monday night. High pressure will build toward the area during midweek. Small craft advisories may be required Monday night into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Vernon, VA
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location: 38.68, -77.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 262000 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 300 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will linger over northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes through Tuesday. A weak low pressure will pass south of the region on Monday. High pressure will build across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday through Friday. A storm system may affect the region next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. Latest analysis depicts low pressure over northern New England, with northwesterly flow over our region. Another area of low pressure is located in the lower Mississippi Valley. Aloft, a closed low is centered over the St. Lawrence Valley within a broad trough covering the eastern two thirds of the country. Another shortwave is located over the southern Plains with another closed low over the Dakotas.

Through Monday, all these features will progress east (or in the case of the Dakota low, southeast) while the overall pattern remains the same, with the trough over the eastern US and northwesterly flow at the surface. Clouds will become a bit less dominant this evening as insolation wanes, diminishing mixing east of the mountains, though along and west of I-81 clouds will persist, with continued light snow showers along the Allegany Front. Late tonight, the approaching shortwave south of the region will help clouds redevelop east of the mountains, so most areas will turnout mostly cloudy, but no precip is expected beyond the Allegany Front. Lows tonight will stay up a bit compared to normal thanks to the clouds, with temps near freezing in much of the region.

The system in the Lower Mississipp Valley will pass south of the region on early on Monday while the system in the Dakotas will do likewise late in the day. This will bring intervals of clouds mixed with sunnier periods on Monday, but clouds will continue to dominate west of I-81 thanks to the continued west to northwest flow. However, except for yet more light snow showers will occur along the Allegany Front, the region will remain dry. Enough sun is likely to bring highs back into the 40s in most of the area, with near 50 expected near and south of DC.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Some clearing is expected east of the I-81 corridor Monday night and Tuesday as the northwest flow wanes while the low in the Canadian Maritimes pulls away into the Atlantic. There is a push of cold advection on its back side, however, so temps will drop a bit despite the increased sun, and there may still be a few snow showers along the Allegany Front during this time as weaker upslope flow will linger. Another weak system passing aloft Tuesday night will usher in another push of cold advection, allowing lows to drop into the 20s for most of the region by dawn Wednesday, but this should be a drier air mass and the snow showers along the Allegany Front should finally end.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Wednesday and Thursday are likely to remain mostly dry, as high pressure builds south out of Canada and gradually moves offshore by late Friday. A few upper-level disturbances will move through the area during this time, but none look to bring impactful weather to the region. The first of which will move by well to our south on Wednesday, but another disturbance will move overhead out of the northern/central Plains. This could result in some light precipitation on Wednesday night. The best chance for any precipitation would be in eastern WV and western VA, but even that chance is pretty low. However, any precipitation in this period would likely be snow, given temperatures in the 20s. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be slightly below average, with highs only in the low 40s and overnight lows in the mid 20s.

Meanwhile, attention turns to the weekend, where a significant storm system may impact the area. At this time, model solutions are far too spread out to lock on to any one solution, but will give a brief synoptic overview of what features are at play. The upper level pattern associated with the subtropical jet becomes very active early to middle of the week, both over our area, and out west. The upper-level energy over our area was already discussed. However, another, more potent, piece of upper-level energy will dive out of the Pacific northwest into the southwest Tuesday through Thursday, and eventually into the southern Plains by Friday. As this piece of energy moves towards the Gulf of Mexico, low pressure will form along the Gulf Coast on Friday. Meanwhile, the polar jet is also very active, with several shortwaves diving out of the Canadian prairies in the same general time frame. This is a pretty good setup for a potential coastal low pressure system this weekend. Now, the uncertainty, as always, lies in where the storm will track when it does form. A wide range of possibilities is being depicted by the computer guidance. Yes, there is the potential for a winter storm, but it could also very well be a cold rain. Some guidance even takes it completely offshore to our south, and doesn't bring it up the coast. So, definitely want to see better consistency, which should come in a couple of days, when the features in question can be better sampled by upper air data collections. Additionally, with high pressure pushing offshore, rather than staying in place over the northeast, cold air will be in question. It will be cold, but will it be cold enough to snow if we get a coastal low? That remains a big question as well. For now, this is mainly something to keep an eye on until we have better confidence.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Clouds mainly in the vicinity of 4kft will wax and wane through Monday, but cigs should remain VFR. Occasional NW gusts to 20 knots also expected, but generally winds should be below that. No precip or vsby restrictions expected. Cigs should break Monday night with few or sct clouds remaining through Tuesday night. Winds remaining NW and gusts to 20 knots will remain possible.

VFR conditions expected on Wednesday and Thursday, with light northwesterly flow, switching to north-northeasterly Thursday.

MARINE. Relatively weak gradient will maintain sub-SCA winds over the waters through Monday. System pushing off shore Monday night into Tuesday may allow winds to strengthen to SCA levels.

No marine hazards are expected Wednesday or Thursday, as high pressure builds overhead.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . RCM NEAR TERM . RCM SHORT TERM . RCM LONG TERM . CJL AVIATION . RCM/CJL MARINE . RCM/CJL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 14 mi52 min 46°F 40°F1011.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 22 mi130 min W 7 1010 hPa
NCDV2 25 mi58 min 48°F 45°F1010.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 38 mi40 min W 13 G 15 45°F 40°F1011.9 hPa (-0.4)28°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 39 mi52 min 47°F 1010.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi52 min 48°F 43°F1010.9 hPa
CPVM2 44 mi58 min 46°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 48 mi52 min 44°F 1011 hPa
FSNM2 48 mi70 min 44°F 1010.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi82 min WNW 5.1 G 6
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 49 mi58 min 46°F 40°F1010.7 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA5 mi44 minNW 710.00 miOvercast47°F27°F46%1011.8 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA13 mi48 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast48°F28°F48%1011.6 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD16 mi44 minNW 510.00 miOvercast45°F27°F51%1011.7 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA16 mi44 minWNW 310.00 miOvercast48°F0°F%1011.8 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA22 mi44 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast45°F30°F58%1012.3 hPa
College Park Airport, MD23 mi52 minWNW 610.00 miOvercast45°F24°F44%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAA

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W12
G15
NW7W9NW8NW8NW7
1 day agoCalmE3E9E6E6E4E5E6SE6E5E4SE4NW11
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N5CalmCalmW5W4W5NW8NW6W9NW8NW10
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3NE3NE3E4E5NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Marshall Hall, Maryland
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Marshall Hall
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:03 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:03 AM EST     2.05 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:06 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:09 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:21 PM EST     2.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.50.1-0.2-00.51.11.61.92.11.91.40.90.40-0.2-00.411.622.22.11.7

Tide / Current Tables for High Point, Occoquan Bay, Virginia
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High Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:26 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:03 AM EST     1.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:28 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:10 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:21 PM EST     1.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.1-0.1-0.10.20.611.31.41.310.70.30.1-0.1-0.10.20.61.11.41.51.51.20.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.