Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Federalsburg, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A large arctic high pressure system is located over the central CONUS early this morning, with a secondary high centered over DelMarVa. Very cold air is in place, with temperatures ranging from the lower 10s across the Poconos to the upper 10s and lower 20s elsewhere across our area. Northwesterly surface flow on the order of 10 kt or so is leading to even colder wind chill values, in the single digits across most of the area, and below zero for the Poconos. A Cold Air Advisory is in place for Carbon and Monroe counties where wind chills of -10 to -15F will be common through the remainder of the overnight hours.
Temperatures will continue to fall through daybreak, though this may be tempered slightly by high clouds approaching the southern half of the area. Regardless, temperatures will likely still bottom out in the mid 10s for areas south and east of the fall line, and in the single digits north and east of it.

With the high cloud cover in place across much of the area and continued modest northwesterly low-level flow, temperatures will be slow to rise. Expect high temperatures to be below freezing area- wide.

As we progress into the afternoon hours, a closed mid-level low will begin to approach the area from the west. In response, a surface low will develop off the Southeast coast and begin to approach the area by this afternoon. This will bring increasing cloud cover to the entire area. Snow chances will begin to increase across portions of eastern Maryland and southern Delaware this afternoon, and eventually into portions of southern New Jersey this evening.

Overall, the following snowfall totals can be expected:

Less than an inch over the southern Poconos, northern New Jersey, the Lehigh Valley down to the I-95 corridor, the Delaware Valley and most of southern New Jersey.

1 to 3 inches for southern portions of the eastern shores of Maryland, southern Delaware, and extreme southeast New Jersey.

Confidence in the synoptic snow amounts is fairly high in that we'll see generally low snow totals but some ensemble members do show the potential for a higher impact mesoscale band to develop over portions of southern Delaware. The WPC Snowband Prototype shows at least one band from the HRRR moving into Sussex County DE. If this does occur, rates could easily exceed 1"/hour and quickly accumulate. In this scenario, narrow snowfall amounts up to 6-10" would be possible. Again, thats not expected, but users should remain alert to changes in the forecast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Cold and blustery to close out the week as high pressure builds in from the west. Fortunately, the high will be weakening as it does so, and waning cold advection will allow for some airmass modification on Friday under mostly sunny skies.

Expected afternoon highs on Friday to top out in the mid to upper 30s in many areas, with many areas south of I-78 climbing above freezing for the first time since Monday. Night time lows will still be below normal, ranging from the mid teens to near 20 degrees.

For Thursday night through at least the first half of Friday, conditions will be quite breezy as the pressure gradient strengthens. Northwest winds near 15-20 mph with gusts in the 30-35 mph range. The winds will produce single digit wind chills Thursday night, with maximum chills only in the 20s on Friday.
Winds will be lessening for Friday night, but still a breeze blowing with wind chills closer to 10 degrees.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Summary...The cold eases as it turns milder over the weekend and especially early next week.

Synoptic Overview...An upper-level trough shifts to our east later Friday with some weak ridging briefly sliding across our area. A shortwave trough then moves through Saturday, followed by another upper-level trough potentially arriving during early next week. At the surface, high pressure builds over our area later Friday into Saturday before weakening and shifting to our southwest. A weak cold front or surface trough may move through Saturday night into Sunday. Low pressure moving across the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday should pull a warm front to our north, with a surface trough or weak cold front approaching from the west during Tuesday.

For Saturday and Sunday...The flow aloft is more zonal Saturday and with surface high pressure weakening some and settling well to our southwest, a shortwave trough may quickly slide across our area Saturday night. Some guidance is a bit sharper with this feature and therefore offers some light precipitation, however there is some uncertainty with this. For now, opted to keep the forecast dry through the weekend. Given the core of the cold air has retreated well to our north and northeast, a milder pattern will result in high temperatures increasing some each day with widespread 40s forecast for Sunday afternoon.

For Monday and Tuesday...An upper-level trough may amplify eastward from south-central Canada to the Ohio Valley. This would support surface low pressure in the vicinity of the Great Lakes region as it tracks eastward. A warm front should be lifting north of our area or already be to our north, then a trough or weak cold front may arrive Tuesday. As of now this feature may be more of a clipper-type system with limited moisture, however there is plenty of time for this scenario to change within the suite of model guidance including the National Blend of Models output. Either way, the pattern looks to favor a milder one during this time with high temperatures reaching or topping 50F both afternoons for portions of our area.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12Z...VFR. W-NW gradually diminishing to less than 10 kt. High confidence.

Today...VFR. W-NW winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...Sub-VFR likely in SN at KMIV/KACY. Otherwise, VFR.
Light snow may be possible at ILG/PHL but confidence is low on that. N winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday...Sub-VFR possible in show showers in the afternoon.
Northwest winds 10-15 knots with 20-25 knots gusts.

Thursday night and Friday...VFR. Gradually decreasing cloud cover Thursday night. Northwest wind gusts up to 30 knots.

Saturday and Sunday...VFR overall with lighter winds.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory conditions in effect for the ocean for most of tonight for NW winds 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts.
Conditions should eventually subside to sub-SCA criteria by day break continuing through this evening. VSBY restrictions in SN develop during the afternoon today, especially for southern ocean waters.

Outlook...

Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible due to northwest winds increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.

Thursday night and Friday...Increasing northwest winds to near 20-30 kts with gusts of 30-40 kts. The strongest winds are expected toward the south, especially across Delaware Bay and adjacent ocean waters. The Gale Watch was upgraded to a Gale Warning for these areas from Thursday evening through Friday morning, and the watch remains in effect elsewhere. Light freezing spray likely Thursday night into Friday morning.

Saturday and Sunday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for PAZ054- 055.
NJ...None.
DE...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Thursday for DEZ003-004.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Thursday for MDZ019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ430-431-450>455.
Gale Warning from 6 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ430- 431-453>455.
Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for ANZ450>452.