Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Federalsburg, MD
July 3, 2024 1:21 AM EDT (05:21 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:42 AM Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 2:10 AM Moonset 5:55 PM |
ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1034 Pm Edt Tue Jul 2 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night - .
Rest of tonight - SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms.
Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1034 Pm Edt Tue Jul 2 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
strong high pressure continues its influence over the waters before slowly pushing off to the north and east off the new england coast tonight. Eventually, a warm front approaches from the west before passing to the north on Wednesday. A cold front nears the waters Friday into Saturday before stalling out early next week. Small craft advisories are possible for portions of the waters Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
strong high pressure continues its influence over the waters before slowly pushing off to the north and east off the new england coast tonight. Eventually, a warm front approaches from the west before passing to the north on Wednesday. A cold front nears the waters Friday into Saturday before stalling out early next week. Small craft advisories are possible for portions of the waters Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 030100 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 900 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in through this evening before moving offshore Wednesday. A more active period begins Thursday with the arrival of a surface trough, bringing hot and humid conditions along with chances for showers and storms each day into the weekend. A frontal boundary may linger across the region into early next week, with generally unsettled conditions persisting.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 9:00PM...No major changes to the forecast at this time.
Conditions remain quiet across the region with surface high pressure in control.
Tonight, high pressure will remain across the region. Skies will be clear except for some occasional Ci/Cs clouds at times. Another seasonably cool night with lows in the low/mid 60s most areas. Light winds are expected after sunset. A few patches of fog are possible mostly for the southern NJ/Delmarva areas.
For Wednesday, the surface high pressure will have moved offshore by morning while the upper ridge continues across the Middle Atlantic region. We expect another fine weather day with seasonable temperatures and comfortable air. Low level moisture will begin to increase as our region comes under the return flow behind the departing high. High temperatures will reach the low/mid 80s most areas with 70s at the shore and at the highest elevations N/W. Winds will be Southeast to South and increase to around 10-12 mph during the afternoon.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure will continue to move offshore Wednesday night into Independence Day as a surface low and associated upper level trough move eastward through eastern Canada. This will push a warm front through the region early in the day Thursday allowing the area to get into the warm sector. The warm front could bring a few isolated showers or storms later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly over NE PA into NW NJ, with the greater chances for showers and storms arriving later in the day Thursday. Prior to this, the other story for the day will be the return of the heat and humidity as highs for most areas will reach the upper 80s / low 90s (cooler near the coast and over the Poconos) with dew points reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. This will result in max heat indicies well into the 90s to near 100 for most areas. As for the storm threat later in the day, expect storms to fire in the vicinity of a weakening frontal boundary draped over PA by the afternoon hours with these storms moving eastward into our eastern PA and northern NJ zones by later in the afternoon and then potentially affecting Delmarva and southern and coastal NJ by the evening.
So it won't be an all day type rain event but unfortunately the timing won't be great as it could interfere with Independence Day festivities. Our POPs generally range from around 50 to 60 percent over eastern PA to 40 to 50 percent near the coast. With ML CAPE values progged to max out around 1000-1500 j/kg along with deep layer shear values around 30 knots there is the potential some storms could become severe and it's worth noting the SPC has SE PA, Delmarva, and parts of southern NJ in a MARGINAL risk for severe weather for Thursday. With PWATs progged to reach 2.25+ inches, storms will also be capable of producing very heavy rain which could lead to localized flooding.
Storms may linger into a good portion of the evening Thursday before diminishing overnight. It will be a very warm and muggy night as the frontal boundary gets hung up over the area. Most areas won't see lows getting below the low/mid 70s (except 60s over the Pocono).
The front will remain draped over the area Friday as it extends to a new low developing over the midwestern States that will lift northward towards the Great Lakes. This will result in another hot, humid day with chances for afternoon and early evening storms once again. Storms should be a little less widespread though compared to Thursday and this is reflected in our POPs which are more in the 20 to 30 percent range.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Low pressure lifts northward into Ontario Friday night into Saturday with a strengthening southerly flow developing in the warm sector over the area ahead of an approaching cold front. This will ratchet up the mugginess even further with dew points potentially reaching over 75 by Saturday afternoon. Combined with forecast highs for Saturday once again in the upper 80s to low 90s for most areas, this could bring peak heat indices in the range of 102 to 107 meaning heat headlines would be needed if this forecast holds.
The synoptic scale lift provided by the cold front along with abundant moisture looks to result in widespread showers and storms by Saturday afternoon into the evening. And at this point, both severe weather and flash flooding look to be a threat. Am particularly concerned seeing progged PWAT values by both deterministic models and ensembles in the range of 2.25 to 2.5 inches which is close to climatological maxes.
Looking beyond Saturday into early next week, the cold front will move through into Sunday but also tend to stall and "wash out" as it moves across. Thus, while Sunday into early next week should be a little more comfortable compared to Saturday in terms of heat and humidity, it will still be quite warm and humid. Each day will also see continuing chances for scattered showers/storms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours, with POPs generally around 30 percent.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight
Mainly VFR. However, some patchy fog development may cause sub-VFR visibilities at KACY/KMIV during the later half of the period. Otherwise, mostly clear skies expected. Winds light and variable and/or out of the S/SSE at 5 kts or less.
High confid overall, but lower confid in patchy fog development and timing for KACY/KMIV.
Wednesday
VFR. Ci clouds with some diurnal Cu possible too.
Light S winds becoming 5-10 kts. High confid.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR with no significant weather.
Thursday through Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with chances (30-60%) for SHRA and TSRA, especially in the afternoon and evenings each day. The best chances for more widespread showers and storms looks to be Saturday at this point.
MARINE
Sub-SCA with fair weather tonight and Wednesday. Light SE winds tonight. S or SE winds increasing to 10-15 kts by Wed afternoon.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Sunday...Conditions are forecast to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period though southerly winds may gust to around 20 knots at times. There will also be daily chances for showers and storms through the period...especially in the late afternoon and evening periods.
Rip Currents...
Wednesday...Southeast winds around 5-10 mph. Breaking waves remain around 1-2 feet. Despite more of an onshore flow, with light conditions expected, have continued with a LOW risk of dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.
4th of July...Southerly winds strengthen with breaking wave heights increasing. With an onshore component to the wind for Cape May, Atlantic, and Ocean County, there is a MODERATE risk for rip currents. With wind direction more shore parallel/offshore at the Delaware Beaches and northern Jersey Shore, have elected to go with a LOW risk. Breaking wave of 2 to 3 feet, though some 4 foot waves are possible within the MODERATE risk area.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 900 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in through this evening before moving offshore Wednesday. A more active period begins Thursday with the arrival of a surface trough, bringing hot and humid conditions along with chances for showers and storms each day into the weekend. A frontal boundary may linger across the region into early next week, with generally unsettled conditions persisting.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 9:00PM...No major changes to the forecast at this time.
Conditions remain quiet across the region with surface high pressure in control.
Tonight, high pressure will remain across the region. Skies will be clear except for some occasional Ci/Cs clouds at times. Another seasonably cool night with lows in the low/mid 60s most areas. Light winds are expected after sunset. A few patches of fog are possible mostly for the southern NJ/Delmarva areas.
For Wednesday, the surface high pressure will have moved offshore by morning while the upper ridge continues across the Middle Atlantic region. We expect another fine weather day with seasonable temperatures and comfortable air. Low level moisture will begin to increase as our region comes under the return flow behind the departing high. High temperatures will reach the low/mid 80s most areas with 70s at the shore and at the highest elevations N/W. Winds will be Southeast to South and increase to around 10-12 mph during the afternoon.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure will continue to move offshore Wednesday night into Independence Day as a surface low and associated upper level trough move eastward through eastern Canada. This will push a warm front through the region early in the day Thursday allowing the area to get into the warm sector. The warm front could bring a few isolated showers or storms later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly over NE PA into NW NJ, with the greater chances for showers and storms arriving later in the day Thursday. Prior to this, the other story for the day will be the return of the heat and humidity as highs for most areas will reach the upper 80s / low 90s (cooler near the coast and over the Poconos) with dew points reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. This will result in max heat indicies well into the 90s to near 100 for most areas. As for the storm threat later in the day, expect storms to fire in the vicinity of a weakening frontal boundary draped over PA by the afternoon hours with these storms moving eastward into our eastern PA and northern NJ zones by later in the afternoon and then potentially affecting Delmarva and southern and coastal NJ by the evening.
So it won't be an all day type rain event but unfortunately the timing won't be great as it could interfere with Independence Day festivities. Our POPs generally range from around 50 to 60 percent over eastern PA to 40 to 50 percent near the coast. With ML CAPE values progged to max out around 1000-1500 j/kg along with deep layer shear values around 30 knots there is the potential some storms could become severe and it's worth noting the SPC has SE PA, Delmarva, and parts of southern NJ in a MARGINAL risk for severe weather for Thursday. With PWATs progged to reach 2.25+ inches, storms will also be capable of producing very heavy rain which could lead to localized flooding.
Storms may linger into a good portion of the evening Thursday before diminishing overnight. It will be a very warm and muggy night as the frontal boundary gets hung up over the area. Most areas won't see lows getting below the low/mid 70s (except 60s over the Pocono).
The front will remain draped over the area Friday as it extends to a new low developing over the midwestern States that will lift northward towards the Great Lakes. This will result in another hot, humid day with chances for afternoon and early evening storms once again. Storms should be a little less widespread though compared to Thursday and this is reflected in our POPs which are more in the 20 to 30 percent range.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Low pressure lifts northward into Ontario Friday night into Saturday with a strengthening southerly flow developing in the warm sector over the area ahead of an approaching cold front. This will ratchet up the mugginess even further with dew points potentially reaching over 75 by Saturday afternoon. Combined with forecast highs for Saturday once again in the upper 80s to low 90s for most areas, this could bring peak heat indices in the range of 102 to 107 meaning heat headlines would be needed if this forecast holds.
The synoptic scale lift provided by the cold front along with abundant moisture looks to result in widespread showers and storms by Saturday afternoon into the evening. And at this point, both severe weather and flash flooding look to be a threat. Am particularly concerned seeing progged PWAT values by both deterministic models and ensembles in the range of 2.25 to 2.5 inches which is close to climatological maxes.
Looking beyond Saturday into early next week, the cold front will move through into Sunday but also tend to stall and "wash out" as it moves across. Thus, while Sunday into early next week should be a little more comfortable compared to Saturday in terms of heat and humidity, it will still be quite warm and humid. Each day will also see continuing chances for scattered showers/storms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours, with POPs generally around 30 percent.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight
Mainly VFR. However, some patchy fog development may cause sub-VFR visibilities at KACY/KMIV during the later half of the period. Otherwise, mostly clear skies expected. Winds light and variable and/or out of the S/SSE at 5 kts or less.
High confid overall, but lower confid in patchy fog development and timing for KACY/KMIV.
Wednesday
VFR. Ci clouds with some diurnal Cu possible too.
Light S winds becoming 5-10 kts. High confid.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR with no significant weather.
Thursday through Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with chances (30-60%) for SHRA and TSRA, especially in the afternoon and evenings each day. The best chances for more widespread showers and storms looks to be Saturday at this point.
MARINE
Sub-SCA with fair weather tonight and Wednesday. Light SE winds tonight. S or SE winds increasing to 10-15 kts by Wed afternoon.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Sunday...Conditions are forecast to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period though southerly winds may gust to around 20 knots at times. There will also be daily chances for showers and storms through the period...especially in the late afternoon and evening periods.
Rip Currents...
Wednesday...Southeast winds around 5-10 mph. Breaking waves remain around 1-2 feet. Despite more of an onshore flow, with light conditions expected, have continued with a LOW risk of dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.
4th of July...Southerly winds strengthen with breaking wave heights increasing. With an onshore component to the wind for Cape May, Atlantic, and Ocean County, there is a MODERATE risk for rip currents. With wind direction more shore parallel/offshore at the Delaware Beaches and northern Jersey Shore, have elected to go with a LOW risk. Breaking wave of 2 to 3 feet, though some 4 foot waves are possible within the MODERATE risk area.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KESN
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KESN
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KESN
Wind History graph: ESN
(wind in knots)Choptank
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:16 AM EDT 3.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:30 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:43 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:05 AM EDT 0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:58 PM EDT 1.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:45 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:32 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:16 AM EDT 3.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:30 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:43 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:05 AM EDT 0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:58 PM EDT 1.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:45 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:32 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Choptank, Choptank River, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.3 |
| 1 am |
| 2.8 |
| 2 am |
| 3 |
| 3 am |
| 3 |
| 4 am |
| 2.8 |
| 5 am |
| 2.4 |
| 6 am |
| 2.1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
Sharptown
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:29 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 02:41 AM EDT 2.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:43 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:20 AM EDT 0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:06 PM EDT 2.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:44 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:30 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:06 PM EDT -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:29 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 02:41 AM EDT 2.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:43 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:20 AM EDT 0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:06 PM EDT 2.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:44 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:30 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:06 PM EDT -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sharptown, Nanticoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.9 |
| 1 am |
| 2.5 |
| 2 am |
| 2.8 |
| 3 am |
| 2.9 |
| 4 am |
| 2.7 |
| 5 am |
| 2.2 |
| 6 am |
| 1.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 2 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| -0 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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