Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Federalsburg, MD

KEY MESSAGES
1. A weak cold front is expected on Monday.

2. A coastal low may drift near the region late in the week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A weak cold front is expected on Monday.

In general, upper-level troughing will remain in place over much of the Northeastern US through the first half of the week.
At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to pass through the region on Monday.

Guidance continued the trend of drier for both Monday and Tuesday, with the maximum chance across our region around 20%, primarily for coastal areas.

That being said, models tend to be too dry for weakly forced systems, particularly with the pattern we are seeing on Tuesday.
Broad troughing aloft, and possibly a weak backdoor front. Thus, will be keeping an eye on this period if rain chances increase.

Temperatures through Wednesday look to be fairly close to seasonal norms across the area, with highs generally in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A coastal low may drift near the region late in the week.

By mid-week, an upper- low is expected to begin to close off near the North Carolina coast before tracking slowly northeastward away from the coast. A surface low will likely form in association with the closed upper-low off the coast as it pulls away.

Guidance seems to be converging on a slower moving cut- off low, but well off the coast. Given how far most models depict this low off the coast, it is likely that the vast majority of land areas will stay dry with this system. There does, however, remain a level of uncertainty with the temperature forecast. At the moment, NBM consensus has temperatures warming back up to the 80s Thursday and Friday. Should this coastal low progress slower and remain nearby Thursday and Friday, the resultant breezy northeast flow will likely cause temperatures to cool down.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Prevailing VFR. A few to scattered afternoon clouds.
Winds will start light and variable, before settling out of the northwest around 5-10 kt. By later this afternoon, winds will gradually veer to southwesterly. High confidence.

Tonight...Prevailing VFR. Increasing mid level cloud between 6000 and 9000 ft AGL are forecast. Winds should generally favor southwesterly, but wind speeds will likely be near or below 5 KT. Given the light wind speeds, some locations, especially valley and sheltered locations, may see variable wind direction especially late tonight.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...Primarily VFR. There will be a slight chance of a few periods of sub-VFR conditions each day with a few rain showers. A thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic Coastal Waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet remains in effect until 11 AM Sunday. Small Craft Advisories for the Atlantic Coastal Waters from Manasquan Inlet to Fenwick Island have been extended until 6 PM Sunday.

While wind gusts continue to diminish across marine waters, seas are expected to remain elevated from offshore low pressure through at least the first half of Sunday. Additionally, as winds shift to more southerly, there may be a temporary increase in wave heights going into the afternoon. Otherwise, winds will largely remain between 5-15 kt before increasing up to 20 kt late in the day. Outside of SCA conditions, fair weather is expected.

Seas should gradually diminish overnight tonight.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

Wednesday and Thursday...There is a chance for SCA conditions primarily due to elevated seas.

Rip Currents...

For today, a light northwest flow will turn to the south- southwest with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. There will be an easterly swell with a period of 8 to 10 seconds and breaking waves of 2 to 4 feet. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for most of the Delaware and Jersey coast. The exception is the coast of Ocean County NJ which tends to have a higher risk than the rest of the coast in this type of pattern.
Therefore, a HIGH risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is in effect for coastal Ocean through this evening.

On Monday, light south winds in the morning will turn east at 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. There will be light easterly swells with a period of 6 to 9 seconds and breaking waves of 2 to 3 feet. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches.

Ocean water temperatures are in the 50s to low 60s. These chilly water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NJZ026.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ450.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ451>455.