Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tilghman Island, MD
December 6, 2023 12:24 AM EST (05:24 UTC)
Sunrise 7:06AM Sunset 4:43PM Moonrise 12:37AM Moonset 1:15PM
ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 953 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am est Wednesday through Thursday morning...
Rest of tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt... Increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain through the day. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am est Wednesday through Thursday morning...
Rest of tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt... Increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain through the day. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
ANZ500 953 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
a quick moving low pressure system will cross the area through early Wednesday. High pressure will build over the region Thursday through Friday night. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday night.
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
a quick moving low pressure system will cross the area through early Wednesday. High pressure will build over the region Thursday through Friday night. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday night.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KPHI 060223 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 923 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
A weak low will develop off the Carolina coast tonight and move offshore through tomorrow. High pressure will build in for the rest of the week into the first half of the weekend, though a weak system may clip the western part of the area Thursday morning. A strong cold front approaches on Sunday and passes on Sunday night, with high pressure building in for the early part of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A slow moving cold front pushed through most of the region earlier this afternoon and will be associated with a digging, positively tilted upper trough that moves in overnight. A secondary center of low pressure will develop off the coast of the Carolinas this evening and a north to northwest pressure gradient will tighten between it and building high pressure to our southwest, keeping at least a light breeze in place overnight. A shortwave embedded in the trough will cross through just south Delmarva around midnight, and we'll also be placed just on the periphery of the left exit region of a departing jet streak. This may be enough to squeeze out some light precipitation in southeast PA/Delmarva, but with forcing from the surface low likely a good distance offshore and near surface moisture still lacking, not expecting coverage to be too widespread. That said, forecast soundings do show the entire profile below freezing with surface temperatures hovering right around the freezing mark in southeast PA, so if any wet bulb effects occur with the near- surface dry air, some flurries/light snow showers may result. The latest radar indicates some very light and mainly elevated precip returns showing up this evening. This activity should increase a bit in coverage and may end up reaching the ground in spots as flurries or sprinkles as mentioned above. With lingering mid- level moisture, clouds should be around overnight though there may be some breaks as surface ridging noses in from the southwest. Lows will bottom out in the low to mid 30s.
Heading into the day Wednesday we could see some of the light precip from the aforementioned shortwave trough and coastal low linger into Wednesday morning, but impacts will remain limited.
The best chances for seeing any precip will be over Delmarva and far southern NJ towards Philly however confidence is not high on precip with a light sprinkle or a few flurries being the most likely. With high pressure starting to build, the northwest pressure gradient should be modest leading to gusty winds especially across the Shore.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure will ridge northward from the Southeastern US Wednesday night, helping clear skies and allow winds to decouple.
This favorable radiational cooling setup will allow temperatures to drop into the 20s as a result.
Most of the region will see high pressure dominate into Thursday as well, though a weakening shortwave embedded within an upper level jet streak will move across southern New England and clip the Poconos and Lehigh Valley with some light rain/snow showers or flurries. Any precip here is not expected to become impactful and snow accumulations, if any, should be a tenth or two of an inch at most. Otherwise, areas outside of the Lehigh Valley/Poconos will be dry under mostly cloudy to overcast skies. Temperatures will remain about 5 degrees below climo during the afternoon with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s once again.
High pressure will continue to dominate into Thursday night with dry conditions expected as skies clear out. Temperatures will be slightly warmer due to low-level flow turning more west/southwesterly and weak warm air advection setting up. Cloud cover hanging around for the first portion of the evening will also help in keeping things slightly warmer. Lows will get down into the mid to upper 20s and low 30s.
A mid-level ridge is expected to move over the region on Friday, which will keep the region dry and bring warmer temperatures. Should be a nice December day to close out the week with some sun and warmth with temperatures for the most part getting into the low to mid 50s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The strong ridge will continue to build in Friday Night into Saturday. The ridge continues to amplify offshore Saturday night and Sunday as a trough digs across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and shifts eastward, taking on a negative tilt as it approaches our area. Rather robust cyclogenesis looks to occur over the Ohio Valley, with the quickly developing surface low traversing the upper Great Lakes, moving into Ontario by sometime Sunday. This will drop what looks to be a relatively strong cold front through our region late Sunday. The trough and associated cold front is forecast to move through the region Sunday night. What looks to be weak transient ridging or at least zonal flow should be in place for Monday.
In terms of sensible weather or impacts, things should be fairly benign Friday Night and Saturday with continued warming bringing afternoon highs into the mid to upper 50s for Saturday. The strengthening low across the Midwest and associated cold front will begin to approach on Sunday. The 12z deterministic and ensemble suite of guidance showed a later arrival of the cold front, and thus PoPs were pushed back slightly. Highest PoPs at this time are late Sunday afternoon and into the first half of Sunday Night, though there remains some uncertainty given it is in the day 5-day 6 timeframe. Regardless, this early winter cold front could be a bit dynamic as surface low pressure deepens over the Great Lakes and tilting becomes negative, allowing strong warm air advection and moisture advection to ensue.
The main concerns appear to be strong winds and heavy rain. A dynamic wind field with a strong low-level jet will likely be present. Even the NBM 25th percentile (the lower end for what could possibly occur) for maximum gusts on Sunday was showing gusts near 40 MPH across the region. As far as rainfall, still a long way to go and a lot of uncertainty, but worth noting that the general ensemble mean was showing totals near an inch. Will need to continue monitoring this system for any changes as there are signs that this could be an impactful system. Highs on Sunday could reach into the 60s, especially if the cold front comes through on Sunday Night. As you could probably guess from the previous sentence, this will be an all rain event as the entire area will be firmly in the warm sector as the front approaches. The beginning of next week will be quiet as high pressure tries to build in from the southwest behind the departing cold front. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal norms.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Tonight...Generally VFR. CIGs remaining in the 4-5kft range with MVFR approaching eastern PA and the northern I95 corridor.
Briefly introduced some MVFR at PHL but don't expect MVFR to prevail. Light north to northeasterly wind 5 knots or less. A widely light scattered rain or snow shower possible, mainly for KILG/KMIV/KACY before daybreak. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Mainly VFR, but mostly cloudy with a few light rain or snow showers possible in the morning. Winds mainly north to northwest increasing to near 10 knots with some higher gusts in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.
Wednesday Night...VFR. Northwest winds around 5-8 kt. Moderate confidence.
Thursday...Primarily VFR, though some restrictions possible at KRDG/KABE with potential snow showers. West/southwest winds around 5- 10 kt. Moderate confidence.
Thursday Night...VFR with clearing skies. Winds favoring a southwest direction around 5 kt or less but some spots will go calm. Moderate confidence.
Friday through Saturday...VFR. South/southwest winds around 5-10 kt.
Moderate confidence.
Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions likely. South/southeast winds around 15- 25 kt with gusts 25-35 kt possible. Low confidence.
MARINE
Northwesterly wind 5-10 knots with periodic gusts to 15-20 knots possible, particularly early Tuesday morning and late Tuesday night. Seas 3-4 feet Tuesday morning, decreasing to 2-3 feet through Tuesday night. By Wednesday winds will ramp up and have issued an SCA beginning 18z on the Atlantic waters and 21z on the Delaware Bay. Frequent gusts of 25-30 will be possible through much of Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours Wednesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Delaware Bay until 03z Thursday and all ocean waters until 08z Thursday as gusts will be around 25-30 kt out of the northwest. Seas will be around 2 to 4 feet. Winds diminish after 08z to sub-SCA levels.
Thursday through Thursday Night...No marine headlines anticipated.
Westerly winds around 10-20 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday through Saturday Night...No marine headlines anticipated.
South/southwest winds around 10-15 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday...SCA conditions expected with Gales likely. Southerly winds increasing to 25-30 kt and gusts up to 40 kt possible. Seas increase to around 5 to 8 feet.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ430-431.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 3 AM EST Thursday for ANZ450>455.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 923 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
A weak low will develop off the Carolina coast tonight and move offshore through tomorrow. High pressure will build in for the rest of the week into the first half of the weekend, though a weak system may clip the western part of the area Thursday morning. A strong cold front approaches on Sunday and passes on Sunday night, with high pressure building in for the early part of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A slow moving cold front pushed through most of the region earlier this afternoon and will be associated with a digging, positively tilted upper trough that moves in overnight. A secondary center of low pressure will develop off the coast of the Carolinas this evening and a north to northwest pressure gradient will tighten between it and building high pressure to our southwest, keeping at least a light breeze in place overnight. A shortwave embedded in the trough will cross through just south Delmarva around midnight, and we'll also be placed just on the periphery of the left exit region of a departing jet streak. This may be enough to squeeze out some light precipitation in southeast PA/Delmarva, but with forcing from the surface low likely a good distance offshore and near surface moisture still lacking, not expecting coverage to be too widespread. That said, forecast soundings do show the entire profile below freezing with surface temperatures hovering right around the freezing mark in southeast PA, so if any wet bulb effects occur with the near- surface dry air, some flurries/light snow showers may result. The latest radar indicates some very light and mainly elevated precip returns showing up this evening. This activity should increase a bit in coverage and may end up reaching the ground in spots as flurries or sprinkles as mentioned above. With lingering mid- level moisture, clouds should be around overnight though there may be some breaks as surface ridging noses in from the southwest. Lows will bottom out in the low to mid 30s.
Heading into the day Wednesday we could see some of the light precip from the aforementioned shortwave trough and coastal low linger into Wednesday morning, but impacts will remain limited.
The best chances for seeing any precip will be over Delmarva and far southern NJ towards Philly however confidence is not high on precip with a light sprinkle or a few flurries being the most likely. With high pressure starting to build, the northwest pressure gradient should be modest leading to gusty winds especially across the Shore.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure will ridge northward from the Southeastern US Wednesday night, helping clear skies and allow winds to decouple.
This favorable radiational cooling setup will allow temperatures to drop into the 20s as a result.
Most of the region will see high pressure dominate into Thursday as well, though a weakening shortwave embedded within an upper level jet streak will move across southern New England and clip the Poconos and Lehigh Valley with some light rain/snow showers or flurries. Any precip here is not expected to become impactful and snow accumulations, if any, should be a tenth or two of an inch at most. Otherwise, areas outside of the Lehigh Valley/Poconos will be dry under mostly cloudy to overcast skies. Temperatures will remain about 5 degrees below climo during the afternoon with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s once again.
High pressure will continue to dominate into Thursday night with dry conditions expected as skies clear out. Temperatures will be slightly warmer due to low-level flow turning more west/southwesterly and weak warm air advection setting up. Cloud cover hanging around for the first portion of the evening will also help in keeping things slightly warmer. Lows will get down into the mid to upper 20s and low 30s.
A mid-level ridge is expected to move over the region on Friday, which will keep the region dry and bring warmer temperatures. Should be a nice December day to close out the week with some sun and warmth with temperatures for the most part getting into the low to mid 50s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The strong ridge will continue to build in Friday Night into Saturday. The ridge continues to amplify offshore Saturday night and Sunday as a trough digs across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and shifts eastward, taking on a negative tilt as it approaches our area. Rather robust cyclogenesis looks to occur over the Ohio Valley, with the quickly developing surface low traversing the upper Great Lakes, moving into Ontario by sometime Sunday. This will drop what looks to be a relatively strong cold front through our region late Sunday. The trough and associated cold front is forecast to move through the region Sunday night. What looks to be weak transient ridging or at least zonal flow should be in place for Monday.
In terms of sensible weather or impacts, things should be fairly benign Friday Night and Saturday with continued warming bringing afternoon highs into the mid to upper 50s for Saturday. The strengthening low across the Midwest and associated cold front will begin to approach on Sunday. The 12z deterministic and ensemble suite of guidance showed a later arrival of the cold front, and thus PoPs were pushed back slightly. Highest PoPs at this time are late Sunday afternoon and into the first half of Sunday Night, though there remains some uncertainty given it is in the day 5-day 6 timeframe. Regardless, this early winter cold front could be a bit dynamic as surface low pressure deepens over the Great Lakes and tilting becomes negative, allowing strong warm air advection and moisture advection to ensue.
The main concerns appear to be strong winds and heavy rain. A dynamic wind field with a strong low-level jet will likely be present. Even the NBM 25th percentile (the lower end for what could possibly occur) for maximum gusts on Sunday was showing gusts near 40 MPH across the region. As far as rainfall, still a long way to go and a lot of uncertainty, but worth noting that the general ensemble mean was showing totals near an inch. Will need to continue monitoring this system for any changes as there are signs that this could be an impactful system. Highs on Sunday could reach into the 60s, especially if the cold front comes through on Sunday Night. As you could probably guess from the previous sentence, this will be an all rain event as the entire area will be firmly in the warm sector as the front approaches. The beginning of next week will be quiet as high pressure tries to build in from the southwest behind the departing cold front. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal norms.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Tonight...Generally VFR. CIGs remaining in the 4-5kft range with MVFR approaching eastern PA and the northern I95 corridor.
Briefly introduced some MVFR at PHL but don't expect MVFR to prevail. Light north to northeasterly wind 5 knots or less. A widely light scattered rain or snow shower possible, mainly for KILG/KMIV/KACY before daybreak. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Mainly VFR, but mostly cloudy with a few light rain or snow showers possible in the morning. Winds mainly north to northwest increasing to near 10 knots with some higher gusts in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.
Wednesday Night...VFR. Northwest winds around 5-8 kt. Moderate confidence.
Thursday...Primarily VFR, though some restrictions possible at KRDG/KABE with potential snow showers. West/southwest winds around 5- 10 kt. Moderate confidence.
Thursday Night...VFR with clearing skies. Winds favoring a southwest direction around 5 kt or less but some spots will go calm. Moderate confidence.
Friday through Saturday...VFR. South/southwest winds around 5-10 kt.
Moderate confidence.
Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions likely. South/southeast winds around 15- 25 kt with gusts 25-35 kt possible. Low confidence.
MARINE
Northwesterly wind 5-10 knots with periodic gusts to 15-20 knots possible, particularly early Tuesday morning and late Tuesday night. Seas 3-4 feet Tuesday morning, decreasing to 2-3 feet through Tuesday night. By Wednesday winds will ramp up and have issued an SCA beginning 18z on the Atlantic waters and 21z on the Delaware Bay. Frequent gusts of 25-30 will be possible through much of Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours Wednesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Delaware Bay until 03z Thursday and all ocean waters until 08z Thursday as gusts will be around 25-30 kt out of the northwest. Seas will be around 2 to 4 feet. Winds diminish after 08z to sub-SCA levels.
Thursday through Thursday Night...No marine headlines anticipated.
Westerly winds around 10-20 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday through Saturday Night...No marine headlines anticipated.
South/southwest winds around 10-15 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday...SCA conditions expected with Gales likely. Southerly winds increasing to 25-30 kt and gusts up to 40 kt possible. Seas increase to around 5 to 8 feet.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ430-431.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 3 AM EST Thursday for ANZ450>455.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KESN EASTON/NEWNAM FIELD,MD | 15 sm | 19 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 34°F | 32°F | 93% | 29.98 | |
| KCGE CAMBRIDGEDORCHESTER RGNL,MD | 19 sm | 19 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 36°F | 36°F | 100% | 29.98 | |
Wind History from ESN
(wind in knots)Avalon
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 04:14 AM EST 0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 09:30 AM EST 0.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:54 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 03:40 PM EST 0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:43 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 09:44 PM EST 1.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 04:14 AM EST 0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 09:30 AM EST 0.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:54 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 03:40 PM EST 0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:43 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 09:44 PM EST 1.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Avalon, Dogwood Harbor, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:28 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:01 AM EST -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:08 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:28 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:39 AM EST 0.69 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:54 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 03:05 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:42 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:45 PM EST -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:32 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:30 PM EST 0.50 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:28 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:01 AM EST -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:08 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:28 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:39 AM EST 0.69 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:54 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 03:05 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:42 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:45 PM EST -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:32 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:30 PM EST 0.50 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| -0.2 |
| 3 am |
| -0.5 |
| 4 am |
| -0.7 |
| 5 am |
| -0.8 |
| 6 am |
| -0.7 |
| 7 am |
| -0.5 |
| 8 am |
| -0.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.2 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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