Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tilghman Island, MD

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Storm chances diminish tonight ahead of more active weather during subsequent days.

- 2) Hot and humid conditions return Thursday and Friday with a daily threat for strong to severe thunderstorms.

- 3) Drier conditions expected to start this weekend, before chances for showers and storms return by early next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Storm chances diminish tonight ahead of more active weather during subsequent days.

While sub-severe in nature, a mixture of storm clusters and convective lines moved across the region during the afternoon to early evening hours. What remains of this thunderstorm activity has pushed into southeastern Delaware and coastal New Jersey.
While a few spotty showers have popped up across north-central Maryland, expect a dry start to the overnight period. The only exception would the Allegheny Front which sees some increase in showers after midnight. While the boundary layer will stabilize, a spotty thunderstorm or two is possible given any elevated instability. Areas off to the east will stay dry overnight with some patchy fog, particularly near regions that saw appreciable rainfall. Tonight's low temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 60s to low 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions return Thursday and Friday with a daily threat for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Mid-level dry air will build in associated with shortwave- ridging on Thursday. Thursday's convective potential seems that will be suppressed in coverage, but hot and humid conditions will likely overcome any weak capping and may result in a threat of locally damaging downburst winds.

Severe threat Fri appears to be significant greater as ridging breaks down and height falls spread across the area supporting large scale ascent. Hotter and even more humid conditions combined with an approaching cold front will result in more widespread thunderstorm coverage, potentially severe given large CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier conditions expected to start this weekend, before chances for showers and storms return by early next week.

Cold front will cross the area Fri evening with storms ending giving a dry less humid day Saturday. A weak cold front will cross the area Sunday afternoon with more showers and thunderstorms, although the amount of moisture and instability does not look overly strong.
Broad trough across the Great Lks and east of the Rockies will keep the risk of showers next week, but instability looks meager to support severe thunderstorms at this time.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Some patchy fog may develop tonight in areas that received more appreciable rain and see some clearing/lighter winds. Otherwise, any overnight shower threat will likely be confined to the Allegheny Front.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Thursday and Friday. Thunderstorm coverage is uncertain Thursday afternoon and evening, but any storm could contain hail and strong wind gusts. There is a higher chance of strong to severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches. Winds will be fairly light out of the west or southwest both days.

VFR conditions are predominantly expected through the weekend, with some reduced conditions possible on Sunday evening associated with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms. Winds flow out of the NW before shifting S Sunday.

MARINE
Earlier Small Craft Advisories were allowed to drop off as wind gusts have fallen below the necessary thresholds. Thus, there are no marine hazards overnight. A recurrence of SMWs may be needed in thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening and then again Friday afternoon and evening due to severe thunderstorms.
A break in hazards Saturday and Sunday before the next possibility of advisories and warnings become possible Sunday night through the middle of next week.

CLIMATE
Temperatures are expected to soar to as much as 15 to 20 degrees above average Thursday and Friday. This approaches or exceeds daily record values at some sites.

Below is a list of record daily high and warm low temperatures for June 11th and 12th (Thursday and Friday).

================================================================= June 11th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows ================================================================= Site Record High Record Warm Low DCA 101 F (set in 1911) 74 F (set in 2020 +6 others)
IAD 95 F (set in 2016) 72 F (set in 2005)
BWI 99 F (set in 1911) 75 F (set in 1914)
DMH 100 F (set in 1984) 79 F (set in 1984)
NAK 96 F (set in 2000) 79 F (set in 1973)
HGR 97 F (set in 1911) 73 F (set in 2005)
MRB 101 F (set in 1911) 71 F (set in 1927 and 1922)
CHO 99 F (set in 1911) 76 F (set in 2020)

================================================================= June 12th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows ================================================================= Site Record High Record Warm Low DCA 95 F (set in 2017 +6 others) 77 F (set in 2015)
IAD 96 F (set in 1986) 72 F (set in 1986)
BWI 96 F (set in 1986 and 1914) 77 F (set in 1947)
DMH 96 F (set in 2025 +2 others) 77 F (set in 2017 and 2015)
NAK 98 F (set in 1914) 77 F (set in 2000 and 1973)
HGR 92 F (set in 2017 +5 others) 71 F (set in 2010 +5 others)
MRB 97 F (set in 1938 and 1933) 73 F (set in 1914)
CHO 98 F (set in 1914) 72 F (set in 1947 +2 others)

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.