Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Friendship, MD

KEY MESSAGES
1) Warming temperatures mid to late week with additional rain chances possible this weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warming temperatures mid to late week with additional rain chances possible this weekend.

As Canadian high pressure slides off toward the south, a quick moving cold front will cross the region by mid-week (late Tuesday night into Wednesday). There will not be a whole lot of moisture to work with, so any rainfall amounts are likely to be meager in nature (less than a 0.10"). Some instability in the atmosphere could produce a few thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon hours. A lack of stronger forcing, shear, or instability should lead to generally weak convection, though some spotty downpours, gusty winds, and small hail can't be ruled out.

After a chilly start to the work week, ensembles agree on a warm up through the middle to latter portions of the week. High temperatures could push back into the low/mid 80s by Friday ahead of another system likely to bring a return of rain by the second half of Friday. A threat of showers continues through much of the weekend before the frontal system exits east of the region by late in the weekend. On Sunday, the latest forecast package calls for highs returning to the 60s. This eventually all lends itself to a cooler finish to the month of April.
However, there is uncertainty in the evolution of low pressure approaching the area by then, and just how the temperature and precipitation forecast pans out. The good news is that rain chances are back in the forecast given the expanding drought and elevated fire weather concerns across the region.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions continue through Friday. Some temporary sub-VFR conditions are possible with a weak cold front Wednesday. The front could bring brief -SHRA/-TSRA at the terminals Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. Locations down around KCHO may see nothing at all. Winds shift to the south today at less than 15 kts with southwest winds ahead of the front Wednesday switching back to the northwest Wednesday afternoon. Gusts Wednesday will remain between 10 to 20 kts. Some LLWS also possible west of the corridor tonight as southerly flow increases ahead of the boundary.

Additional WAA showers are possible by Friday afternoon which could be accompanied by a few restrictions. Initial winds will be out of the NW on Thursday before becoming mainly westerly on Friday. A shift to southeasterly is possible by Friday night.
More shower chances with temporary sub-VFR reductions are possible this weekend.

MARINE
High pressure builds overhead today. Winds become more southerly through the day today with additional SCAs possible into Wednesday due to southerly channeling. Sub- SCA level winds are expected late Wednesday with winds out of the SW to NW as a cold front crosses. This front may bring a few showers and thunderstorms mainly Wednesday afternoon.

Expect sub-advisory level winds for both Thursday and Friday.
Weak gradients will favor multiple wind shifts before turning mainly S/SE by Friday night.

SCA conditions return for portions of the waters this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
MinRH of 15 to 30 percent is forecast for most of the area this afternoon, with potential for moisture return to be delayed until tonight despite a light return flow. Winds will be rather light for most of the area, but a few hour period of gusts 15 to 25 mph are possible over the Alleghenies, Blue Ridge Mountains, and the central Shenandoah Valley. Areas south of I-66/US-50 have seen very little in the way of rain. Fuel moistures remain dry as a result with very high ERCs under sunny skies, though the relatively light winds and earlier than normal green up may quell a more significant fire weather threat.

A moderating trend in temperatures expected during the middle and second half of the week. Winds will be on lighter side. The next potential for rainfall is Wednesday into Thursday (mainly north of I-66/US-50), but amounts look light.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Southerly flow is expected today and tonight. This will result in rising tidal anomalies. The higher members of P-ETSS and SFAS, as well as STOFS and CBOFS all hint at the potential for minor flooding at Annapolis early Wednesday as a result.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.