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FXUS63 KIND 280736 AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 236 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Key Messages

- Single digit wind chills this morning - Occasional wind gusts to 30 mph during the afternoon hours of Wednesday and Thursday - Potential for appreciable rainfall Thursday PM - late Friday

Short Term
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Today.

A few flurries are currently falling across portions of north central Indiana as a localized vort max within the broader trough across the Great Lakes pushes through central Indiana. There is little to no forcing other than the increased vorticity but with the very cold air there remains lapse rates of 7-8C/km up to the snow producing cloud layer. The vorticity associated with this system will exit the area after 09Z so expect any flurries to come to an end by then. Surface pressure gradients will also begin to relax during the daytime hours which will gradually bring an end to the wind gusts but not before wind chills fall into the single digits with morning lows in the mid to upper teens.

The mixing layer will remain shallow through the afternoon hours with the top of the boundary layer only at around 2-3kft. This limited mixing will keep temperatures from increasing much beyond the low 30s, especially with how robust the cold air is above the surface. Clearing skies is expected through the afternoon hours with dry air continuing to advect into the area and surface pressure rising.

Tonight.

Dry and quiet conditions will continue into the overnight hours with a few mid to upper level clouds across the northeastern counties associated with the backend of the aforementioned trough as it exits the eastern seaboard. Overnight lows will again fall into the upper teens to low 20s.

Long Term
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 236 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Wednesday through Friday...

The remainder of the week will start with a moderation through near- normal levels amid brisk southwesterly return flow around the recent broad surface ridge's slide through the southeastern CONUS. This low-level flow off of the western Gulf of Mexico will also set the stage for a potential, long-awaited, soaking rain event through the late workweek. This next, southern wave's lack of connection with the retracted northern jet...and corresponding critical heights/ temps for snow stretched across the southern Great Lakes...should prevent any mixed or frozen precipitation types.

Open wave and somewhat weak surface low pressure will slowly advance from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley during the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Steady warm advection ahead of this circulation should boost precipitable water to 0.75-1.00 inches, while the CWA falls under the advantageous curl of the system's comma-shaped rain shield...which should extend from the Deep South to the Chicagoland area at the system's peak intensity Thursday night. Potential limiting factors include the supporting short wave lifting faster than progged while crossing the Midwest...as well as rather narrow surface high pressure crossing the Great Lakes at a different pace so as to not set-up the better isentropic lift as currently progged.

While model guidance continues to feature 36-hr QPF totals of 1.00- 1.75 inches for most central/southern counties, with 0.75-1.00 inch amounts across the regions northern tier...with the under performance of other recent precipitation events, widespread 0.50- 1.00 inches with lower/higher outliers along the CWA's northern/southwestern edges may be a more reasonable expectation.
The very dry antecedent ground would suggest no flooding concerns even if full rainfall potential was realized...with the only minor concern possibly brief heavier rainfall rates across our far south should the system's supporting jet's left exit region track farther north along the Ohio Valley than currently progged.

Saturday through Monday...

Past some lingering late-week light rain/drizzle amid the filling and fading rainmaker...Indiana should expect a drier, yet somewhat mild weekend. Weak surface high pressure will occupy the vacuum between departing and approaching systems, with any early winter upper troughs still retracted to our north. The split flow pattern will likely then rearrange as upstream waves take a farther-north track across the Rockies and central Plains...with a subsequent more amplified trough possibly digging across the central US by the early week. Ensembles suggest any corresponding surface low pressure would likely track to our north where any organized precipitation would fall as rain.

Looking at the entire long term period...somewhat mild overnights will lead a slightly above normal temperature trend...that will also include days occasionally reaching the 50s amid the higher heights ahead of approaching short waves - on both Thursday and early next week. The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the long term is 45/30.

Aviation
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1212 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Impacts:

-Westerly wind gusts to 25kts through 12Z.
-MVFR cigs through 08Z.

Discussion:

Brief MVFR conditions are expected for the next few hours as a low stratus deck moves to the southeast. These cigs will gradually rise and scatter out towards daybreak with mostly clear skies expected afterwards. Wind gusts up to 25kts will continue for several more hours before gradually relaxing later into the morning hours.
Afterwards VFR conditions are expected with southwesterly winds of 8- 12kts.



IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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