Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mitchell, IN

FORECAST UPDATE
Issued at 953 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments needed. Expect quit weather conditions tonight as central Indiana remains between a low pressure system centered across the Great Lakes and surface high pressure over the Deep South. A tight pressure gradient between these systems should keep winds elevated overnight around 10-15mph. Latest observations have shown sporadic gusts up to 30 mph. However, these gusts are likely going to diminish over the next few hours once the PBL fully decouples.

Latest Satellite imagery shows scattered mid-high clouds moving into central Indiana from the north. Look for these clouds to continue overspreading the area with moisture streaming in aloft. Elevated winds and some enhancement in clouds will help to limit diurnal cooling. Current observations are already showing that temperatures are cooling slower than anticipated. Overnight temperatures were increased slightly to account for this. Lows will still generally fall into the mid 30s.

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 242 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight...

A relatively tight pressure gradient between a system moving through the upper Great Lakes and surface high pressure to the south of central Indiana will keep winds up through the remainder of the afternoon and into the night.

Winds aloft will strengthen into the night as a 50kt low level jet moves into the area. This will help keep gusty winds around as well, in the 20 to 30 mph range this afternoon and in the 15 to 25 mph range tonight.

Otherwise, some high clouds will pass through at times with generally northwest flow continuing aloft.

Winds and passing clouds will keep temperatures warmer than previous nights, with lows in the 30s expected.

Sunday...

Brief upper ridging will move into the area ahead of an approaching system. This will aid in keeping central Indiana dry during the day.
Clouds will increase ahead of the approaching system, especially during the afternoon hours.

Warm advection will continue, so even with increasing cloud cover, still expect highs to reach the lower and middle 50s most areas.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 242 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

Central Indiana will be back on the temperature roller coaster a bit during the long term period, with early week warmth giving way to another quick hit of cold mid week. Some moderation in temperatures appears likely by the end of the week.

A southern stream shortwave will move out of the Southwest and through the Ohio Valley and mid-Appalachians Sunday night into Monday, bringing strong chances for rainfall, particularly for Sunday night into Monday morning. Amounts continue to not look particularly concerning, as Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT)
into the area is modest at best, maximized further to our south and southwest, with central Indiana receiving somewhat of a glancing blow from the best moisture. Highest amounts with this event look to be a little over a half inch of rain in our south and southeast nearest the best moisture. This continues a trend of gradually lowering QPF with this event.

While model uncertainty will necessitate some lingering low rain chances into Tuesday as the northern and southern stream jets phase and a larger scale longwave trough swings through the eastern CONUS, forecast confidence here remains low, and the highly amplified nature of the pattern leads to uncertainty with respect to the longitudinal position of any secondary low pressure system that develops early to mid-week. Recent model runs are in slightly better agreement that there may be a glancing blow from the precip shield of the next surface low late Monday night into Tuesday, but many dry hours are likely Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Will keep lower PoPs across the eastern edge of the forecast area for now and monitor as things become clearer. Nevertheless, with the strong upper trough and cold advection swinging through the region, there will be at least a low chance for some flurries or light snow showers late Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday, though nothing of significance appears likely for the time being.

The highly amplified trough will sweep out of the area relatively quickly and should allow for gradual moderation of temperatures as the end of the work week and next weekend approach, and the blend depicts this reasonably well.

Mid-week should be the coldest portion of the coming week, Tuesday night into Thursday night, with max temps as cold as the mid 20s to mid 30s and lows as cold as the mid teens to mid 20s.

A complex upper level pattern very late in the forecast period shows drastic guidance disagreement in timing, but suggests that additional precipitation chances may be needed as early as next weekend, and will retain low blend PoPs during this time.

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1220 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2024

Impacts:

- Non-convective low level wind shear through daybreak

- Occasional wind gusts in excess of 25 to 30kts for the next few hours

- IFR and lower conditions developing this evening with rain

Discussion:

High clouds will continue to move across the area through daybreak with surface winds and low level wind shear as the primary impact to aviators. The presence of a low level jet pivoting through the region will keep LLWS across the area through about mid morning before the jet departs
At the surface
wind gusts have periodically approached 30kts over the last couple hours most notably at KIND. The gusts will continue for the rest of the night but gradually decrease as the pressure gradient relaxes.

Ridging aloft and at the surface will keep skies mainly clear for most of the day Sunday with a continue brisk southwest wind at 10- 15kts and sporadic gusts to around 20kts. Moisture will rapidly expand northeast into the Ohio Valley near sunset with clouds thickening and lowering through the evening. Rain will develop by mid evening and persist through Sunday night with ceilings dropping to IFR levels and lower.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.