Mitchell, IN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mitchell, IN

June 17, 2024 3:19 PM EDT (19:19 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 9:16 PM
Moonrise 4:10 PM   Moonset 2:09 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mitchell, IN
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Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
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FXUS63 KIND 171832 AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 232 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Extended period of hot and humid conditions through next weekend

- Afternoon heat indices approaching 100 this week may be hazardous to sensitive and vulnerable groups

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms at times through Tuesday, and then again over the weekend

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Rest of This Afternoon...

Scattered convection will continue across central Indiana, with plentiful instability and some weak forcing from an upper wave. Will continue with chance PoPs. The environment looks good for the potential of gusty winds in any storm that develops, along with brief heavy rain.

Clouds will help keep temperatures from getting too much higher, with lower to middle 90s continuing outside of any showers. Heat indices will be around 100 degrees for some areas.

Tonight...

Much of the initial convection will dissipate early in the evening as heating is lost. However, additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm may develop overnight as another slug of upper energy moves through. 850mb winds will increase some and aid in bringing a deeper plume of moisture. Will have some low PoPs again, especially across the western half of central Indiana.

Low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s once again.

Tuesday...

The plume of deeper moisture will remain on Tuesday. This will result in more cloud cover across the area. This cloud cover should result in cooler temperatures (but still hot overall). Highs will peak around 90 degrees most areas.

Dewpoints will remain high enough that heat indices will be in the middle 90s, keeping conditions uncomfortable.

Scattered showers will linger Tuesday morning, mainly west. Then, during the afternoon, the moisture plus building instability will bring the threat for additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Will continue with low PoPs.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Heat will continue to be the primary weather impact during the long term period. Although the magnitude may be marginal for extreme heat, the duration is a concern. Meteorological analysis and uncertainties are covered below.

The synoptic-scale pattern at the moment features an anomalous ridge across the east and troughing in the west. Models show 500-mb height anomalies centered over northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes region near or exceeding June climatological maxima. This translates to the hottest surface temperatures on the windward side of the ridge axis (over our region) extending up to the crest of the ridge, well into eastern Canada. A complicating factor for extreme heat this far west will be a deep subtropical moisture plume with clouds and limited mixing. However, this will provide the moisture element to bring heat index values up to around 100 degrees.
Although our traditional 105F heat index criteria likely won't be met, the duration of the heat episode, warm nights (minimums in the mid-70s), and early onset in the season is enough for us to continue messaging heat related illness potential, especially for vulnerable populations. We encourage our media partners to continue doing so as well.

The must vulnerable period for heat related illness may be the latter half of the week when 1. clouds may be less extensive than Tuesday-Wednesday, resulting in a greater radiative component to the wetbulb globe temperature calculations (higher WBGT categories noted), and 2. cumulative effects of multi-day heat, 3. minimum temperatures around 75 continuing through Saturday night.

One note about the HeatRisk graphics by WPC. This is an experimental product and values in the current pattern are higher than traditional criteria, and may not be perfectly calibrated to best represent the risk at this time. Thus, we advise users to take this into consideration when viewing the HeatRisk product.

Broad and impressive IVT signal over our region and corresponding anomalous precipitable water will continue. There may be a tendency for this to narrow and shift west with retrograding ridge late in the week lessening coverage of diurnal single cell convection. But, this isn't a regime with sufficient capping and given broadly confluent low-level flow amidst anomalous moisture, isolated convection cannot be ruled out throughout the entire week. Though, again, as drier air near the core of the ridge shifts westward this may help lessen coverage late in the week.

Cluster analysis and spaghetti plots show a little more chaos among the ensembles by the weekend but still a general signal of a shortwave trough to our north nudging a cold front and potentially more organized (albeit not widespread) convection by Sunday. Post- frontal air mass will be more continental and drier into early next week.

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Impacts:

- Scattered showers and isolated storms this afternoon - Gusts near 20kt possible this afternoon

Discussion:

Outside of any convection, VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Some convection will pop up this afternoon in the hot and unstable airmass. Coverage is expected to be low enough that only a VCSH mention will be used, but thunder is possible. These will diminish by 01Z or so. Additional showers may develop overnight, especially west, but odds are too low to put in the TAFs.

Similar conditions will exist on Tuesday, but additional moisture will likely lead to ceilings around 5000FT.



IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFRH FRENCH LICK MUNI,IN 19 sm24 minS 0510 smClear90°F63°F41%30.05
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