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FXUS63 KIND 101946 AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 246 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Key Messages

- Clearing skies and cold tonight

- Dry weather for the upcoming work week

- Temperatures seasonable Monday and Wednesday, otherwise above normal temperatures

Short Term
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Tonight...

GOES-16 H20 vapor imagery was showing the upper trough was pivoting east across central Illinois this afternoon. The CIRA geocolor loop and obs were indicating the stratus deck was extensive across central Indiana and along with cold advection has kept temperatures below normal in the 30s. The aforementioned trough will pivot across central Indiana this evening and satellite trends and BUFKIT soundings suggest skies will clear from southwest to northeast this evening and overnight, in the wake of the trough and under the influence of a ridge of surface high pressure building in from the west. The clearing skies and lower to mid 20s dew points should allow temperatures to bottom out in the mid 20s with good confidence.

Monday...

A ridge of surface high pressure will move east across the Great Lakes and southern states on Monday. Combo of subsidence and very dry air, per BUFKIT soundings, support sunny skies by late morning and afternoon. Sunny skies along with winds shifting to the southwest, should allow temperatures to recover to near seasonable numbers with afternoon highs in the upper 30s northeast to mid 40s southwest.

Long Term
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Upper level ridging will quickly push into the Western US early this week with a large area of anomalously high heights over the Eastern Pacific. As the ridge amplifies, a short wave will develop of the SW CONUS, keeping the subtropical jet further south, and limiting any moisture return to the central US.

Even without moisture, temperatures swings will be evident within weak mid level waves upstream of the trough. Initially, temperatures will warm to above normal on Tuesday, but a dry cold front passage Tuesday night will drop highs back towards seasonal on Wednesday.
High pressure builds back in for Thursday and Friday, with a warming subsidence layer beneath confluence aloft. This could lead to highs back into the 50s for late this week as dry air helps with efficient diurnal warming.

By late next week, the trough over the southern US will progress over warm Gulf waters, leading to diabatic cyclogenesis. Ensemble members are still varied on the path of the developing low leading to some uncertainty chances for precipitation this weekend. Trends have been shifting the low more over coastal waters, of which would keep any rain south/east of central Indiana.

8-14 Day Outlook: Ensemble means between the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement on a zonal Pacific Jet extension into the eastern Pacific beyond day 8. While its still too early to understand the impacts, this usually would trend towards a warmer period for the last few weeks of December, depending on the simultaneous phase of the north Atlantic Jet

Aviation
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1142 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings expected to improve to VFR after 02z

Discussion:

MVFR stratus deck will hang around until later this evening, when the upper trough moves to the southeast and a surface high pressure ridge approaches from the west. At that time, ceilings will lift and then skies will clear Monday morning as the boundary layer dries out underneath an inversion.

Winds will be northwest to around 10 knots and shift to the west and southwest Monday.



IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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