Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sea Ranch, CA

SHORT TERM
Issued at 102 PM PDT Sat May 17 2025 (This evening through Sunday)

Key Messages -Breezy to gusty winds -Below normal temperatures

The much talked about windy weekend has finally arrived. Afternoon observations are showing winds of 10 to 20 mph with highest gusts 40 to 50 mph. Why so windy? Two fold: upper level jet support and a passing upper level trough through NorCal/NV. As noted this morning, the onshore gradient was solid at 4+ mb from SFO-SAC, but since then it has eased and the SFO-ACV gradient is increase as the upper level trough kicks east. Despite the transition from onshore to northerly winds will remain breezy to gusty over the next 24-36 hrs. Will also keep messaging breezy to gusty, but hold off on Wind Advisory at this time as coverage/timing isn't high enough to warrant it. Winds will be strongest over the coastal waters, along the coast, and higher terrain.

As for temperatures, it was cloudy to start the day with drizzle and the sun is finally making an appearance. Increasing northerly flow is helping to mix out the lower levels. Additionally, as the upper trough moves east the region will feel more subsidence aloft helping to squash widespread cloud cover. That being said, there is some weak cold advection aloft leading to some fair weather cu. Despite some sunshine, temperatures will remain cooler through Sunday with the colder airmass. Additionally, the temperatures will "feel" a little more raw given the breezy to gusty winds. Highs will be in the upper 50s to upper 70s.

LONG TERM
Issued at 140 PM PDT Sat May 17 2025 (Sunday night through next Friday)

Key Messages -Lingering gusty northerly winds Monday -Elevated Fire Weather Concerns Sunday through Tuesday -Winds ease by Tuesday -Warmer and drier conditions -Moderate HeatRisk far interior MidWeek

To kick off the workweek gusty northerly flow will persist. Still no Wind Advisory, but borderline conditions with occasional gusts in the 40 to 50 mph. High pressure will begin to nose its way in kicking off a warming and drying trend. Temperatures will warm generally 5 to 10 degrees through midweek. Warmer and drier conditions combined with stronger northerly flow will lead to evaluated fire weather concerns. Given the bumper crop of grass/finer fuels this season this set up could allow for quicker spread of grass fires, especially interior North and East Bay.

The peak of the warm up occurs on Wednesday with the max ridging over the region. Highs across the interior will reach into the 90s with a few flirting a 100 degrees interior Central Coast.
HeatRisk values reach the Moderate range for these locations.
Lingering onshore flow and cooler SST will keep the coastal areas in check temperatures. Temperatures begin to cool for Thursday and Friday as the ridge gets flattened by an fast moving shortwave trough/developing upper low moving into NorCal.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM PDT Sat May 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the North, East, and South Bay terminals for the period. The forecast challenge will become the gusty west to northwest winds where gusts to 25-30kt are expected this afternoon and perhaps into the early evening hours. KHAF should be the only site that struggles with cig and/or vis through the TAF cycle. Some guidance shows low cloud building back in later in the period, while others keep skies on clearer.

Vicinity of SFO...Clouds this morning generally remain confined to the terrain surrounding SFO, around San Bruno and along the Santa Cruz mountains. These clouds should hold through the afternoon which may lead to some lower clouds slinking through the airspace. Outside of that, the main concern will turn to the westerly winds. Gusts up to 30 to 35kt are expected through the evening, though a few isolated gusts to 40kt might be possible from 22Z to 02Z. Skies should remain clear at KSFO and KOAK overnight, with some of the latest hi-res models backing off low cloud making it into the vicinity of KSFO. Opted to keep the possibility of a FEW MVFR cigs overnight, but will re-evaluate at the next update.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Satellite imagery shows stratus gradually gliding along and over the Central Coast. Nearly all of the hi-res models show KMRY and SNS staying socked in with MVFR cigs through early Sunday morning. Decided to follow the that trend from the previous shift, but also started showing the signs of clearing which should occur between 12-17Z, with the earlier times favoring KSNS.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail once this happens. In addition to pesky low clouds, there should be an uptick in west to west-northwest winds this afternoon at the terminals.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM PDT Sat May 17 2025

Hazardous marine conditions will be relentless through Wednesday.
Widespread strong to near gale northwesterly breezes with gale force gusts are expected today. Winds will become northerly tonight, remaining strong to near gale with gale and storm force gusts through Sunday evening. Winds remain strong and near gale force through Wednesday. Rough to very rough seas are expected through Wednesday.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 9 PM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Storm Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.