Tuesday, July16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deale, MD

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Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:32PM Tuesday July 16, 2019 5:14 PM EDT (21:14 UTC) Moonrise 7:34PMMoonset 4:30AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 436 Pm Edt Tue Jul 16 2019
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 436 Pm Edt Tue Jul 16 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain offshore through tonight. The remnants of barry will pass through the waters later Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure will return for Friday and into the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday into Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deale, MD
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location: 38.76, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 161849
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
249 pm edt Tue jul 16 2019

Synopsis
An upper level disturbance will cross the area this evening. The
remnants of barry will then affect the region late Wednesday
into Thursday. High pressure will return for Friday and into the
weekend.

Near term through tonight
Mid-high level clouds stream across the area this afternoon. In
spite of this, there has been enough insolation to permit
diurnal cumulus to develop as well, with temperatures soaring
into the lower-mid 90s (80s in the mountains). This combined
with dew points reaching 68-73f will provide heat index values
in the low to mid 90s west of the blue ridge to the upper 90s
east of the blue ridge.

This increasing warmth humidity has promoted the development of
1000-2000 j kg of MLCAPE across the region. Consequently,
showers and thunderstorms have developed across the higher
terrain of the appalachians. Cams converging on a solution that
drifts this activity east through the afternoon early evening,
taking advantage of 20-25 kt effective shear and shortwave
energy. Assuming updrafts can mature, isolated severe activity
is possible.

Any shower thunderstorm activity will wane this evening and a
mostly dry overnight is expected. Lows will range through the
70s.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
The area will remain in a hot pattern through midweek as light
southwest flow will support 850 mb temperatures around 20c. At
this time made no changes to temperature dewpoint forecasts.

This keeps the area on the cusp of advisory criteria.

A trough axis will be crossing the area in the late
afternoon evening hours. The added forcing on an inherently
unstable air mass will result in scattered to numerous
thunderstorms, any of which could be severe. Additionally,
precipitable water in excess of 2 inches suggests these storms
will be capable of heavy rainfall as well.

The trough will be overhead through at least the first half of
Thursday, and should pull eastward by late in the day. Scattered
shower thunderstorm development is expected again, and will
likely happen sooner in the day than either today or Wednesday.

Therefore, given more cloud cover and earlier chances for
precipitation, temperatures will likely be several degrees
"cooler" than Wednesday, although dew points may tick up a
degree or two. Highs Thursday will generally be from 87-92f,
with heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. Lows
Thursday night from 70-80f.

Long term Friday through Monday
High pressure will shift back over our region Friday and remain in
place through the weekend. Weak upper level ridging will be in place
to our north which will lead to warm and humid air being advected
into our region. This synoptic setup is indicative of a very hot
pattern which will lead to daytime temperatures hovering in the mid
to upper 90s and possibly the low 100s. The combination of high
temperatures and dewpoints will lead to an environment conducive for
heat indexes reaching above 105 and possibly over 110. This suggest
that heat advisory criteria will likely be reached Friday through
Sunday and possibly reach heat warning levels this weekend. High
temps and dew points will also create an environment favorable for
the formation of pop up thunderstorms and showers. Models have
average CAPE values between 1500 and 2000 j kg with little to no
shear. This indicates an isolated pulse severe storm threat.

On Monday, a cold front will move through out region. The models
have a focused line of storms and rain moving through Monday into
early Tuesday. The hot and humid air ahead of this boundary will
make the environment favorable for development of thunderstorms and
possibly severe weather. We will need to continue to monitor the
models for the timing and strength of these storms but there remains
a lot of uncertainty at this time.

Aviation 19z Tuesday through Sunday
Vfr will generally prevail outside of showers and thunderstorms
over the next several days. Each day through Thursday carries a
thunderstorm chance, with local brief flight restrictions and
gusty winds. Have made best effort to time today's risk in the
tafs 19-22z start, 02-03z end from west to east. Wednesday's
threat could be a pinch sooner, and could be a couple hours
sooner still on Thursday.

Hot and humid conditions are expected Friday and into the weekend.

Skies should remain mostly clear along light winds out of the south
to southwest. Isolated thunderstorms and showers will be possible
especially for the cho and mrb terminals.VFR conditions expected at
this time for both Friday and Saturday.

Marine
South winds less than 10 kt this afternoon evening. However,
scattered showers thunderstorms expected, which may carry
locally gusty winds. Marine warnings may be required.

A similar story will carry through Thursday, with daily
shower thunderstorm chances, especially during the
afternoon evening hours. Marine warnings possible both days as
well. In addition, the gradient wind may be a bit stronger late
tomorrow. Do not have the confidence to raise a small craft
advisory at this time, but would not rule out eventually.

Hot and humid conditions along with light winds out of the south
expected Friday and Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed
due to the southerly flow.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hts
near term... Hts
short term... Hts mm
long term... Jmg
aviation... Hts jmg
marine... Hts jmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 11 mi74 min SE 7 G 7 87°F 82°F1017.9 hPa (-1.7)69°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 15 mi56 min S 5.8 G 7.8 86°F 1017.9 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 15 mi38 min SSW 7.8 G 7.8 87°F 86°F1016.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 16 mi56 min 89°F 1016.1 hPa
CPVM2 18 mi68 min 88°F 76°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 26 mi62 min S 8.9 G 9.9 85°F 1017.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 27 mi56 min S 6 G 8.9 91°F 85°F1016.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 28 mi68 min 90°F 88°F1016.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi56 min E 7 G 8.9 86°F 86°F1016.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 32 mi56 min SE 12 G 13 86°F 1016.5 hPa
FSNM2 32 mi68 min ESE 12 G 15 87°F 1016.7 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 35 mi68 min S 5.1 G 11 88°F 81°F1016 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 35 mi68 min SSW 4.1 G 7 91°F 84°F1016.9 hPa
NCDV2 41 mi68 min ESE 7 G 8 88°F 89°F1016 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 43 mi62 min SSE 6 G 8
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 45 mi68 min SSE 8 G 8.9 85°F 87°F1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD15 mi80 minSE 1010.00 miFair91°F72°F54%1016.9 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD18 mi94 minS 610.00 miFair93°F68°F44%1016.9 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD19 mi2.3 hrsSSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy91°F72°F55%1017.7 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE6S4S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm3SE4E6SE8SE7SE9SE9SE10SE10SE11
1 day ago------5NW6NW3NW3W4N4W3NW4N4N5N6NE3E4E74CalmSE7SE8SE8SE8E7
2 days agoNW6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalm4NW4NW6NW76W7--------

Tide / Current Tables for Fairhaven, Herring Bay, Maryland
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Fairhaven
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Tue -- 04:18 AM EDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:32 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:22 PM EDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:39 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:59 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.31.51.61.61.51.310.80.60.40.40.50.70.910.90.80.70.50.40.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:36 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:23 AM EDT     1.19 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:13 PM EDT     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:57 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:39 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 06:22 PM EDT     0.52 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:58 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:49 PM EDT     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.20.20.611.21.10.90.5-0.1-0.6-0.9-1.1-1-0.8-0.400.30.50.50.3-0-0.3-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.