Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Belle Haven, VA

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A return to dry and seasonable weather this weekend.

- 2) Dry weather much of next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A return to dry and seasonable weather this weekend.

An upper trough axis will pivot through this evening along with a reinforcing cold front. Earlier showers have moved east of the area. Outside of a few upslope sprinkles or very light showers in the Alleghenies this evening, dry conditions are expected overnight.

Seasonable temperatures are expected through the weekend along with mainly dry conditions. Northwest breezes will gust 20 to 30 mph (locally 5-10 mph higher at higher elevations). A few upslope rain or snow showers are possible Saturday along and west of the Allegheny Front, with some stratocu possibly drifting further east.

With high pressure building to the south, areas most likely to see light to calm winds and clear skies ideal for radiational cooling will be in central Virginia. The growing season remains active east of the Blue Ridge/Catoctin Mountains (except for western Loudoun County in VA and Frederick County in MD). It is possible frost or near freezing temperatures are observed during the late night to early morning hours beginning late Saturday night, with a gradual moderation possible by early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry weather much of next week.

Heading into next week, high pressure builds across our region bringing dry and mostly sunny conditions through Thursday morning.
Ahead of a dry cold front, expect a brief warming trend of above- average daytime temperatures that peak Tuesday afternoon. This cool and dry airmass provides multiple opportunities for frost or freezing overnight temperature late next week. Chances for showers return Thursday and Friday as a low pressure system trails up the Mid- Atlantic coast.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected to persist at all TAF sites through the upcoming weekend, though some patchy early morning fog can't be ruled out near CHO. Winds are in the process of shifting to out of the northwest this evening as a reinforcing cold front moves through. Winds will remain out of the west to northwest through the weekend. At least occasional gusts of 15-20 kts are possible later tonight following the frontal passage. Gusts of 20-25 kts are likely during the daylight hours, most likely peaking Saturday afternoon. CHO/MRB stand the best chance of going light to calm each night through the weekend.

VFR conditions persist through the beginning of next week at all terminals. Northwesterly breezes are expected on Monday before winds shift more southwesterly on Tuesday at lighter speeds.

MARINE
Light and variable winds are expected early this evening before winds shift to out of the west to northwest behind a cold front. Overnight, gusts will increase in the wake of the front.
Gusts of 20 to 30 knots are expected at times much of the weekend, and Small Craft Advisories will likely need to be extended for much of the waters through Sunday.

Behind a dry cold front, gusty winds could sustain SCA conditions through Monday evening. Northwesterly winds on Monday shift southwesterly by Tuesday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ530>543.