Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Belle Haven, VA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Areas of mid and high level clouds will continue to cross the sky tonight. Temperatures may ultimately show a wide range overnight, as locations which can decouple will drop into the 20s. Then, as a low level jet increases the second half of the night, a downslope component may be able to break the nocturnal inversion and some locations could rise into the 40s by sunrise.
No significant changes have been made to the forecast this evening.

Previous discussion:

South to southwesterly warm air advection ensues as high pressure pushes slowly off the southeast U.S coast. This will hold low temperatures closer to freezing in most locations.
Sheltered valleys will likely dip into the mid to upper 20s and low 30s. Winds will help aid in keeping temperatures up especially over the ridges as a strong west to southwest 925 mb low level jet amplifies over the area. This will enhance wind gusts between 40 to 45 mph over the mountains with a few localized ridges pushing close to advisory criteria. Elsewhere, expect 20 to 30 mph gusts as the sun comes up and mixing ensues early Sunday morning. At this time, Wind Advisories are not expected given the small spatial area affected.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
High pressure drifts off the southeast U.S coast Sunday allowing for return southwesterly flow to pump warmer air into the region. Meanwhile, low pressure will pass to the north across southeast Canada leaving a tightened gradient over the region.
With that said, expect a rather breezy and mild Sunday with dry conditions. Highs for most east of the Alleghenies will push into the mid to upper 50s with even some 60s across northern and central VA east of the Blue Ridge. Mountain locations and those along the PA/MD line will see highs in the 40s and low 50s. Wind gusts look to range between 20 and 30 mph especially during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Mountain locations will see gusts up to 40 mph especially during the front half of the day with a strong low level jet passing overhead.

Winds will gradually slacken Sunday evening into Sunday night with increasing clouds as the next low pressure system tracks north and east from the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley. This low pressure system will send a warm front and piece of shortwave energy through the area late Sunday into the first half of Monday providing a renewed round of widespread precipitation across the region. Most of what falls will be in the form of rain although a little mixed precipitation cannot be ruled out in the sheltered/high valleys of the Alleghenies/Catoctins late Sunday night into early Monday morning. 12z guidance has trended somewhat warmer with this threat eliminating any widespread concerns. Overall the resultant front and shortwave look fairly progressive as they track eastward from the mid- MS and Ohio River Valley. This will lead to rainfall amounts of around a 0.10-0.25" areawide with locally heavier amounts up to 0.50" along and west of the Alleghenies. Rain chances will diminish Monday evening into Monday night outside the mountains. This will be a brief reprieve before the next front and wave of low pressure arrive Tuesday into midweek.

High temperatures Monday continue to trend downward given the extra cloud cover and increased rain chances across the region. Most locations along and north of I-66/US-50 will see highs in the mid to upper 40s and low 50s while locations south see highs in the mid to upper 50s. Lows Monday night will fall back into the upper 30s and low to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A deep upper level trough will dig across the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday and into Wednesday before becoming negatively tilted as it pivots towards New England. At the surface, the upper level trough will push a low pressure system north of the area in Northern Canada with the associated cold front moving through the forecast area Tuesday night through Wednesday. Models are in good agreement for widespread rain showers Tuesday night and Wednesday. Given recent drought conditions, rainfall is expected to be beneficial. As temperatures drop overnight, rainfall will transition to snow at higher elevations, mainly along and west of the Alleghenies. Winds become gusty in the wake of the frontal passage, with northwest winds gusting 15 to 25 knots (locally higher at high elevations)
Wednesday. Conditions dry out and winds diminish Thursday as surface high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic.

The warmest day of the long term period will be in Tuesday with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s. As the cold front pushes through the area Tuesday night and into Wednesday, it creates a large spread in temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s ahead of the frontal boundary with the Alleghenies dipping into the low 30s in the wake of the frontal boundary. Additionally, high temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 50s to low 60s east of the Blue Ridge with those further west topping out in the 30s to low 40s.

In the wake of the frontal boundary, overnight low temperatures on Wednesday dip into the teens and 20 with only the metro areas staying in the 30s. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be in the 30s and 40s with overnight lows in the teens and 20s each night.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Sunday as high pressure passes to the south of the region. Outside of a few passing mid and high level clouds, LLWS appears to be the only concern for aviators this weekend. This is due largely in part to a strengthening 925 mb LLJ later overnight (260-280 degrees at 35 to 45 kts around 2kft vs. 190-230 degrees at 5 to 10 kt at the surface). Any LLWS will likely diminish mid to late Sunday morning as the LLJ weakens. However, once the low level inversion breaks, some gusts of 20-25 kt will be likely through mid afternoon.

Winds will continue to decrease Sunday as a warm front and wave of low pressure push across the region. This will lead to the next chance of MVFR and IFR conditions as widespread rain overspreads the terminals. Winds will turn to the south and southeast with gusts less than 15 kts. The rain will diminish Monday evening and night although sub VFR ceilings and vsbys could linger given the warm/moist airmass over the colder surface below.

Flight restrictions as possible Tuesday as precipitation chances increase at all terminals. Sub-VFR conditions are likely Tuesday night and into Wednesday as widespread rain showers bring reduced visibilities, low ceilings, and potential LLWS to all terminals. In the wake of a frontal passage, light and variable winds shift to northwesterly, gusting up to 30 knots Wednesday. VFR conditions return Thursday through the start of the weekend as high pressure builds back into the region. Winds will remain elevated Thursday on post west to northwest flow.

MARINE
Winds will increase through the overnight hours as a low level jet amplifies over the region. Small Craft Advisories are in place for most of the waters through early Sunday afternoon (have added north of Pooles Island to the advisory, with the upper tidal Potomac joining at 10 AM Sunday). Sub-SCA level conditions are expected to return to the waters Sunday evening into Monday morning. This will be brief though with winds likely increasing again Monday over the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac due to southerly channeling.

SCA criteria winds are likely beginning Tuesday evening and continuing through Wednesday in the wake of a frontal passage.
Northwesterly winds gust up to 25 knots Wednesday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER
A Fire Danger Statement has been issued Sunday for portions of northern and central Virginia in coordination with the State of Virginia Department of Forestry.

Despite the colder temperatures, a number of wildfires have recently broken out in dry/gusty environments. This is due largely in part to the drier airmasses combined with antecedent drought conditions and gusty winds.

For late tonight through most of Sunday, a tight pressure gradient brings gusty winds to the area, primarily at higher elevations.
Southwesterly winds gust 20 to 25 mph across the area, with gusts around 30 to 45 mph expected at higher elevations. Relative humidity values will drop into the 25 to 35 percent range across portions of northern and central VA with 30-45 percent values elsewhere east of the Alleghenies. These values will gradually recover late Sunday afternoon and evening as moisture advection increases on south to southwesterly flow.

A wetting rain comes in Monday across a vast majority of the region.
Rainfall amounts of a tenth to a quarter of an inch can be expected with locally heavier amounts west of the Alleghenies and along the crest of the Blue Ridge.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ530>534- 536>543. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ535.