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Marine Weather and Tides Stone Harbor, NJ Version 3.4

NOTICE 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 7:01AM

Sunset 4:35PM

Friday December 6, 2019 2:06 PM EST (19:06 UTC)

Moonrise 2:47PM

Moonset 2:15AM

Illumination 74%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stone Harbor , NJ

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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA

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FXUS61 KPHI 061425 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 925 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will move across the east coast today. High pressure will build across the Mid Atlantic and northeast states Saturday and Saturday night, before shifting offshore on Sunday. A warm front is expected to lift northward across the area on Monday, followed by a cold front Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure builds back across the Mid Atlantic region Thursday into Thursday night, before shifting offshore through Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. No significant changes with the mid morning update. We've seen mid level clouds expand back into the region morning as the next northwest- flow shortwave trough digs southeastward into the northeastern U S. An attendant surface low will migrate eastward through New York today, with a southwestward- extending cold front approaching the area this afternoon. Though this system is fairly moisture- starved, do expect a few showers to develop along and in advance of the front today via fairly stout large- scale lift. There have been some radar echos this morning, but so far, it doesn't look like we have any precip reaching the ground. Chances increase slightly this afternoon though as we have some low level moisture advection. Precipitation amounts will be quite light, and temperatures will be warm enough for rain, except possibly the Poconos and vicinity.

With warm advection in advance of the approaching system, temperatures should be a little warmer today, though this will be tempered by increasing/lowering cloud cover. Generally have max temps about 5 degrees warmer than Thursday's values. Winds will diurnally swing upward this afternoon, aided by an increasing surface pressure gradient as the low to our north makes its closest approach to the CWA. A few gusts of 20 to 25 mph or so can be expected this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/. The aforementioned cold front will move through the area this evening, switching winds to northwest (perhaps gusting for a bit around the time of frontal passage). Showers (scattered and light in nature) may occur near the time of frontal passage, with best chances along/southeast of the urban corridor given anticipated location of the front. The front should move offshore around/after 06z with skies rapidly clearing upstream. Though winds should diminish somewhat overnight, they will probably remain elevated enough to prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions. As such, kept temperatures fairly close to consensus and continuity, which are not too different than the readings being observed this morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Quiet weather begins the long term period over the weekend, then unsettled weather returns for the beginning of next week, then quiet weather returns for the end of next week.

High pressure builds across the area later in the day Saturday then centers itself across the region Saturday night, before shifting offshore on Sunday. This will keep dry weather in the forecast Saturday through Sunday. Winds may be a little gusty at times Saturday morning, as well as during the day Sunday, but gusts should remain mostly 15 to 20 mph, with occasional high peak gusts around 25 mph.

As we move into Sunday night, a warm front is expected to be lifting north toward the area, then lift across and through the area during the day Monday. At the same time, there will be multiple short wave/vorticity impulses moving across the area starting late Sunday night and continuing through Monday night, even once the warm front lifts through the area. With enhanced moisture across the area, this is expected to lead to several possible periods of enhanced rainfall chances across the area through Monday night. If any precipitation starts early enough Sunday night while temperatures a cold enough, a brief wintry mix may be possible for portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey before changing to all rain.

Then as we move into Tuesday, a cold front is expected to move across the area later during the day into the evening. This will lead to another period of enhanced rainfall chances, especially during the afternoon and evening. PW values will likely exceed 1.00 inches and approach 1.25-1.50 inches Monday-Tuesday, so there could be period of moderate to heavy rainfall at times.

The cold front will have moved offshore by Wednesday morning, then our area will be under the influence of strong northwest flow. Wind gusts are expected to increase to at least 20 to 30 mph with occasional higher gusts around 35 mph possible. Lake effect snow showers will likely be ongoing through the day to our north across New York and northern Pennsylvania where the steepest lapse rates and enhanced moisture will be located. The low-mid level flow will likely keep the showers to our north, but there is still a slight chance if the flow turns a little more south some lake effect showers could make it down into our area.

The chance for showers cuts off by Thursday as high pressure builds across the area, so dry weather is expected for Thursday into Thursday night.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Mainly VFR with CIGs lowering to around 5000 feet by afternoon. Cannot rule out a passing shower during the day, but any impacts would be minimal. Winds west or southwest around 10 kt with perhaps a few gusts to 20 kt or so. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . VFR with any CIGs rapidly dissipating overnight after cold-frontal passage this evening. Winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 kt, perhaps a little stronger in the evening. High confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday-Sunday . VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds Saturday shift to the northeast Saturday night, then southeast and south on Sunday. Winds may gust around 15-20 knots at times Saturday and Sunday. --High confidence.

Sunday night . Conditions may lower to MVFR later in the overnight ahead of a lifting warm front. South winds may shift to southeast late in the night. --Moderate confidence.

Monday-Tuesday . An extended period of MVFR and IFR conditions likely as periods of rain move across the area. Southeast winds early Monday become southwest once a warm front lifts across the area Monday. Winds shift to the northwest behind a cold front later Tuesday into Tuesday night. --Moderate confidence.

MARINE. After a lull in winds that should last much of the morning, expecting south to southwest winds to increase rapidly around midday, with advisory conditions expected to return on the Atlantic waters this afternoon. It is not out of the question that gales are observed, but the regime is not climatologically favorable for gales (harder to reach in pre-frontal southwest flow versus post-frontal northwest flow) and model soundings are fairly marginal both in terms of magnitudes of gusts and duration. As a result, issued another small craft advisory beginning at noon today. A cold front will move through the waters this evening/tonight, switching winds to northwest. This may be the best timing for a few gusts to reach marginal gales, but confidence is too low to issue a warning at this time. Winds should diminish slowly late in the night, so the advisory expiration time is 6 am Saturday.

For Delaware Bay, expecting mostly sub-advisory winds today (though a few gusts to 25 kt or so may occur this afternoon). However, as the front moves through this evening, expecting a few hours of marginal advisory conditions with the switch to northwest wind directions and favorable channeling effects. Therefore, issued a small craft advisory for lower Delaware Bay from 9 pm this evening to 6 am Saturday.

Seas may approach 5 feet late this afternoon into this evening near the time of frontal passage.

Cannot rule out a few showers near the front late this afternoon into this evening. These showers may be accompanied by stronger/erratic gusts.

OUTLOOK .

Saturday-Sunday night . Conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory levels.

Monday-Tuesday . Small Craft Advisory conditions likely as winds and seas increase as a warm front lifts across the area Monday, then a cold front moves across the area Tuesday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ431.

Synopsis . Robertson Near Term . CMS/Johnson Short Term . CMS Long Term . Robertson Aviation . CMS/Robertson Marine . CMS/Gorse/Robertson

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ	36 mi	76 min	SSW 21 G 27	52°F	54°F	3 ft	1016.4 hPa (-3.7)
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ	41 mi	72 min		48°F	46°F		1018.4 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ	43 mi	66 min	S 9.9 G 15	50°F	44°F		1017.5 hPa (-4.2)

Wind History for Cape May, NJ

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NW17 G21

NW11 G18

W17 G22

NW18 G24

NW22 G29

NW8 G17

NW13 G16

NW14 G17

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W10 G14

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NW19 G27

N4 G9

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NW17 G24

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NW3 G10

NW15 G19

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NW8 G13

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NW10 G13

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W10 G13

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W11 G14

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ	41 mi	10 min	SSW 10	10.00 mi	Fair	54°F	35°F	49%	1017.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWWD

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)

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W11 G23

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W10 G18

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W7

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W10 G19

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NW10 G22

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Tide / Current Tables for Waretown, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey

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Tide / Current Tables for Stone Harbor, Great Channel, New Jersey

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE

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