Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dunnigan, CA

FXUS66 KSTO 130850 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 150 AM PDT Sun Oct 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
Near normal temperatures, light winds, and dry weather are expected to persist today into the early week ahead. The next system then brings cooler temperatures and precipitation chances by midweek, with breezy to gusty northerly winds and potential fire weather concerns following through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION
Early this morning, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are evident across interior NorCal on latest GOES-West satellite imagery. The lingering cloud cover currently over the central Sacramento Valley is expected to progress eastward through the overnight hours. Despite a generally drying northerly component to the light winds at this time, some nonzero probabilities (around 20% to 30%, primarily in the Sierra foothills) for fog/low stratus development will continue through the early morning given the moist air mass left behind by the quick moving system yesterday.
Otherwise, clearing skies are anticipated throughout the day as broad ridging aloft builds in across the region.

With a largely stagnating upper level pattern expected through Tuesday, temperatures look to warm to near normal today and moderate into the early week ahead. Resultant high temperatures in the 80s are anticipated for the Delta, Valley, and foothills, with 70s to low 80s at higher elevations. Winds within this weather pattern also look to remain generally light to locally breezy with diurnal and/or terrain driven directions.
Additionally, as this stagnant weather pattern persists, humidity recovery and daytime minimum humidities look to incrementally decline as well. While widespread fire weather concerns are not anticipated early this week, some brief periods of locally elevated fire weather conditions may be possible, particularly in locations that see overlap between moderate humidity recovery and locally breezy downslope winds.

There is then increasing confidence in a trough digging southward from the Gulf of Alaska toward northern California by the middle of the week. There continues to be a notable split within ensemble guidance regarding the exact evolution of this wave, particularly later in the week, but there have been fairly consistent signals for increasing precipitation potential on Wednesday. At this time, highest probabilities (10% to 15%) for thunderstorm potential are beginning to shift toward the higher elevations of the Sierra.
Resultant probabilities for accumulating precipitation greater than 0.1" remain around 10% to 20% from I-80 southward, with higher probabilities around 30% to 50% for the northern and central Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothill and mountain locations.
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