Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Upper Marlboro, MD
December 7, 2023 9:08 AM EST (14:08 UTC)
Sunrise 7:10AM Sunset 4:47PM Moonrise 1:37AM Moonset 1:37PM
ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 843 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Today..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Scattered showers with isolated snow showers early this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 3 ft. Rain likely in the morning, then showers through the night. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Today..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Scattered showers with isolated snow showers early this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 3 ft. Rain likely in the morning, then showers through the night. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ500 843 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure will build over the region through Friday, then move offshore this weekend. A strong frontal system will likely impact the region on Sunday. Small craft advisories may be needed starting Saturday night, and are likely Sunday and Sunday night. Gales are possible Sunday into Sunday night, as well.
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure will build over the region through Friday, then move offshore this weekend. A strong frontal system will likely impact the region on Sunday. Small craft advisories may be needed starting Saturday night, and are likely Sunday and Sunday night. Gales are possible Sunday into Sunday night, as well.
Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KLWX 071300 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 800 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
A weak disturbance will brush by the area today. High pressure will build over the region through Friday, then move offshore this weekend. A strong frontal system will likely impact the region on Sunday. High pressure will return Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 8am, a band of flurries and snow showers was pivoting southeastward out of Pennsylvania into northeastern Maryland.
Visibility has generally been between 1 and 3 miles, with spotty light accumulations of less than a quarter inch upstream. Expect similar conditions to pivot across Harford/Cecil Counties through the mid morning hours.
Skies will gradually clear this afternoon and through the day from southwest to northeast. As a result the Shenandoah Valley will see the warmest temperatures of the day, reaching into the low 50s, while the rest of the area will see highs in the 40s (upper 30s in the mountains). Tonight won't be quite as cold, with most of the area dropping into the low 30s, and into the upper 20s at locations where winds are light enough to decouple.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Dry conditions are expected for most of the short term as an upper level ridge passes overhead both Friday and Saturday.
Surface high pressure to our south is quietly setting the scene for the extended, exiting stage left with southerly flow behind it advecting moisture and above normal temperatures into the region. High temperatures around 10 degrees above average are expected, in the 50s for most of the area on Friday, and even reaching into the 60s on Saturday.
As low pressure approaches from the west, clouds and PoPs increase along our western periphery late Saturday night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Latest guidance continues to show a potent upper-level trough with northern and southern stream energy digging over the Great Lakes through the Gulf Coast States Sunday. High pressure will remain well offshore and the cold front associated with the trough axis will slowly approach from the west. Most guidance indicates that the northern and southern stream systems will not completely phase, and this combined with more energy moving into the Pacific Northwest should allow this system to be more progressive. Having that been said, it is still a potent system and this can be seen by the strong meridional component to the upper-level trough axis. Therefore, warm and moisture advection will be deep ahead of the cold front, allowing plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean to advect into the area. Also, the thermal gradient will be quite strong with subtropical air being pulled into the area ahead of the cold front and a Canadian airmass on the other side of the boundary. A strong low-level jet will also aid in moisture advection as well. Latest NAEFS indicates pwats to be about 2-3 standard deviations above climo which is pretty significant.
Therefore, widespread rain is expected across the area Sunday into Sunday evening. A line of heavier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will most likely accompany the frontal passage Sunday afternoon/evening. Given the strong winds aloft, this has the potential to mix down gusty to perhaps even locally damaging wind gusts. One mitigating factor will be the lack of instability that is progged in the models. It will be difficult to get instability rooted within the boundary layer. Therefore, certainty for damaging wind gusts is low at this time. A soaking rain is expected given the dynamics and moisture associated with this system. Latest NBM indicates around 1-3" most likely. Given the recently dry conditions this may minimize the flood threat. However, localized flooding cannot be ruled out given the higher rainfall amounts and the fact that rainfall rates may be heavy at times with the frontal passage.
Colder air will move in behind the front, first later Sunday afternoon in the Allegheny Highlands and then Sunday night from northwest to southeast across the rest of the area. With the upper- level trough axis lagging behind the frontal passage by a few hours or so, this suggests that there will be some anafrontal characteristics to the boundary. Therefore, there may be a few hour period of rain or rain changing to snow behind the cold front before drier air eventually works its way in overnight. The best chance for accumulating snow will be along the ridge tops of the Blue Ridge and Allegheny/Potomac Highlands where cold air will move in sooner. For locations along and west of the Allegheny Front, an upslope component to the low-level flow will cause additional snow showers to last longer behind the cold front, enhancing potential for accumulating snow.
Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the cold front Monday ahead of approaching high pressure and it will turn out sharply colder. More snow showers are possible along/west of the Allegheny Front, but mainly dry conditions are expected elsewhere (could be a few flurries that spill east of the mountains). High pressure will build overhead Monday night, bringing dry and cold conditions.
High pressure will remain nearby for the middle portion of next week, bringing dry and chilly conditions.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through Saturday as high pressure dominates. Clouds redevelop east of the Blue Ridge this morning, and some sprinkles and flurries are likely near MTN (less likely for BWI) and possibly a brief period of light snow. Impacts are expected to be minimal and brief.
Otherwise, southerly flow is expected through Saturday with dry conditions. Winds out of the SE increase late Saturday night ahead of an approaching system, with gusts 20-25 kts possible east of the Blue Ridge.
A soaking rain and subVFR cigs (IFR possible) is expected Sunday into Sunday night. A line of heavier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will pass through the terminals later Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Strong winds may accompany this line of convection. Southerly winds ahead of the boundary may become gusty Sunday afternoon. Gusts most likely will be around 25 to 35 knots.
Rain will end later Sunday night from northwest to southeast. A few snow showers may mix in toward the ending around KMRB, but confidence for any accumulation is low. Gusty northwest winds are expected behind a cold front later Sunday night through Monday before winds diminish Monday evening.
MARINE
Gusty S/SW winds over the southern Chesapeake Bay and lower tidal Potomac are expected to diminish this morning. Winds reach low-end SCA criteria over wider waters in SW flow tonight.
Winds diminish over the waters Friday and most Saturday with high pressure overhead and southerly flow continuing. SCAs may be necessary late Saturday night as winds increase ahead of the approaching low pressure system.
Gusty southerly winds will develop ahead of a cold front Sunday into Sunday evening. Winds will turn to the northwest behind the cold front and remain gusty through Monday.
SCAs will likely be needed Sunday through Monday evening, and possibly overnight. A few gale gusts are possible Sunday, but there is uncertainty regarding anomalously warm temperatures overrunning cooler waters. There is the potential for thunderstorms as well, which would aid in mixing down stronger gusts.
Winds may approach gale-force criteria Monday behind the cold front.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A snapback of tidal anomalies is expected through tonight as water that piled up near the mouth of the Bay returns north due to the easing offshore flow. Water levels will be near action stage later tonight and Friday.
A southerly flow is expected Saturday, but it should be light.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is for action stages. However, the southerly flow will strengthen Sunday, increasing the chances for minor tidal flooding into Sunday night. A strong offshore flow will return by Monday.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 800 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
A weak disturbance will brush by the area today. High pressure will build over the region through Friday, then move offshore this weekend. A strong frontal system will likely impact the region on Sunday. High pressure will return Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 8am, a band of flurries and snow showers was pivoting southeastward out of Pennsylvania into northeastern Maryland.
Visibility has generally been between 1 and 3 miles, with spotty light accumulations of less than a quarter inch upstream. Expect similar conditions to pivot across Harford/Cecil Counties through the mid morning hours.
Skies will gradually clear this afternoon and through the day from southwest to northeast. As a result the Shenandoah Valley will see the warmest temperatures of the day, reaching into the low 50s, while the rest of the area will see highs in the 40s (upper 30s in the mountains). Tonight won't be quite as cold, with most of the area dropping into the low 30s, and into the upper 20s at locations where winds are light enough to decouple.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Dry conditions are expected for most of the short term as an upper level ridge passes overhead both Friday and Saturday.
Surface high pressure to our south is quietly setting the scene for the extended, exiting stage left with southerly flow behind it advecting moisture and above normal temperatures into the region. High temperatures around 10 degrees above average are expected, in the 50s for most of the area on Friday, and even reaching into the 60s on Saturday.
As low pressure approaches from the west, clouds and PoPs increase along our western periphery late Saturday night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Latest guidance continues to show a potent upper-level trough with northern and southern stream energy digging over the Great Lakes through the Gulf Coast States Sunday. High pressure will remain well offshore and the cold front associated with the trough axis will slowly approach from the west. Most guidance indicates that the northern and southern stream systems will not completely phase, and this combined with more energy moving into the Pacific Northwest should allow this system to be more progressive. Having that been said, it is still a potent system and this can be seen by the strong meridional component to the upper-level trough axis. Therefore, warm and moisture advection will be deep ahead of the cold front, allowing plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean to advect into the area. Also, the thermal gradient will be quite strong with subtropical air being pulled into the area ahead of the cold front and a Canadian airmass on the other side of the boundary. A strong low-level jet will also aid in moisture advection as well. Latest NAEFS indicates pwats to be about 2-3 standard deviations above climo which is pretty significant.
Therefore, widespread rain is expected across the area Sunday into Sunday evening. A line of heavier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will most likely accompany the frontal passage Sunday afternoon/evening. Given the strong winds aloft, this has the potential to mix down gusty to perhaps even locally damaging wind gusts. One mitigating factor will be the lack of instability that is progged in the models. It will be difficult to get instability rooted within the boundary layer. Therefore, certainty for damaging wind gusts is low at this time. A soaking rain is expected given the dynamics and moisture associated with this system. Latest NBM indicates around 1-3" most likely. Given the recently dry conditions this may minimize the flood threat. However, localized flooding cannot be ruled out given the higher rainfall amounts and the fact that rainfall rates may be heavy at times with the frontal passage.
Colder air will move in behind the front, first later Sunday afternoon in the Allegheny Highlands and then Sunday night from northwest to southeast across the rest of the area. With the upper- level trough axis lagging behind the frontal passage by a few hours or so, this suggests that there will be some anafrontal characteristics to the boundary. Therefore, there may be a few hour period of rain or rain changing to snow behind the cold front before drier air eventually works its way in overnight. The best chance for accumulating snow will be along the ridge tops of the Blue Ridge and Allegheny/Potomac Highlands where cold air will move in sooner. For locations along and west of the Allegheny Front, an upslope component to the low-level flow will cause additional snow showers to last longer behind the cold front, enhancing potential for accumulating snow.
Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the cold front Monday ahead of approaching high pressure and it will turn out sharply colder. More snow showers are possible along/west of the Allegheny Front, but mainly dry conditions are expected elsewhere (could be a few flurries that spill east of the mountains). High pressure will build overhead Monday night, bringing dry and cold conditions.
High pressure will remain nearby for the middle portion of next week, bringing dry and chilly conditions.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through Saturday as high pressure dominates. Clouds redevelop east of the Blue Ridge this morning, and some sprinkles and flurries are likely near MTN (less likely for BWI) and possibly a brief period of light snow. Impacts are expected to be minimal and brief.
Otherwise, southerly flow is expected through Saturday with dry conditions. Winds out of the SE increase late Saturday night ahead of an approaching system, with gusts 20-25 kts possible east of the Blue Ridge.
A soaking rain and subVFR cigs (IFR possible) is expected Sunday into Sunday night. A line of heavier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will pass through the terminals later Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Strong winds may accompany this line of convection. Southerly winds ahead of the boundary may become gusty Sunday afternoon. Gusts most likely will be around 25 to 35 knots.
Rain will end later Sunday night from northwest to southeast. A few snow showers may mix in toward the ending around KMRB, but confidence for any accumulation is low. Gusty northwest winds are expected behind a cold front later Sunday night through Monday before winds diminish Monday evening.
MARINE
Gusty S/SW winds over the southern Chesapeake Bay and lower tidal Potomac are expected to diminish this morning. Winds reach low-end SCA criteria over wider waters in SW flow tonight.
Winds diminish over the waters Friday and most Saturday with high pressure overhead and southerly flow continuing. SCAs may be necessary late Saturday night as winds increase ahead of the approaching low pressure system.
Gusty southerly winds will develop ahead of a cold front Sunday into Sunday evening. Winds will turn to the northwest behind the cold front and remain gusty through Monday.
SCAs will likely be needed Sunday through Monday evening, and possibly overnight. A few gale gusts are possible Sunday, but there is uncertainty regarding anomalously warm temperatures overrunning cooler waters. There is the potential for thunderstorms as well, which would aid in mixing down stronger gusts.
Winds may approach gale-force criteria Monday behind the cold front.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A snapback of tidal anomalies is expected through tonight as water that piled up near the mouth of the Bay returns north due to the easing offshore flow. Water levels will be near action stage later tonight and Friday.
A southerly flow is expected Saturday, but it should be light.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is for action stages. However, the southerly flow will strengthen Sunday, increasing the chances for minor tidal flooding into Sunday night. A strong offshore flow will return by Monday.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KADW JOINT BASE ANDREWS,MD | 8 sm | 13 min | SW 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 37°F | 25°F | 60% | 30.12 | |
| KCGS COLLEGE PARK,MD | 16 sm | 18 min | SSE 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 37°F | 25°F | 60% | 30.16 | |
| KDCA RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL,VA | 17 sm | 16 min | SSW 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 37°F | 25°F | 60% | 30.16 | |
| KFME TIPTON,MD | 20 sm | 19 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 32°F | 100% | 30.17 |
Wind History from ADW
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Hills Bridge (Route 4), Patuxent River, Maryland
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Hills Bridge (Route 4), Patuxent River, Maryland, Tide feet
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:30 AM EST 0.43 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:35 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 03:06 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:31 AM EST -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 09:38 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:08 PM EST 0.87 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:35 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:41 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:42 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:41 PM EST -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:00 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:30 AM EST 0.43 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:35 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 03:06 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:31 AM EST -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 09:38 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:08 PM EST 0.87 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:35 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:41 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:42 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:41 PM EST -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:00 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0 |
| 4 am |
| -0.3 |
| 5 am |
| -0.5 |
| 6 am |
| -0.7 |
| 7 am |
| -0.7 |
| 8 am |
| -0.5 |
| 9 am |
| -0.2 |
| 10 am |
| 0.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| -0 |
Sterling, VA,
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