Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Michaels, MD

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Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:51PM Thursday August 22, 2019 2:20 PM EDT (18:20 UTC) Moonrise 10:43PMMoonset 11:54AM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 136 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
This afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 136 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will approach the waters tonight, then stall over the carolinas on Saturday. High pressure will then settle over the area Saturday into Sunday. Small craft advisories are possible over the southern waters Friday night through Sunday .


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Michaels, MD
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location: 38.81, -76.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 221338
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
938 am edt Thu aug 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will move into the area late today, before slowing
down as it moves across the area. It will take until overnight
for the front to move offshore. This front will continue to move
to our south over the weekend as high pressure builds to our
north through early next week. The high will try to nose itself
down the east coast, but not fully make its way into our area.

This high will retreat northward by Wednesday as an area of low
lifts northward offshore of the east coast and a cold front
approaches from the west.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Rather complicated forecast exists today, as a slow-moving cold
front will be approaching the area from the northwest as a
series of shortwave troughs progress through the predominantly
west-southwest midlevel flow across the northeast. Two stronger
perturbations will play a key role in our area the next 24
hours. The first is a perturbation moving from the saint
lawrence valley this morning to far northern new england and
adjacent portions of new brunswick by this afternoon. This will
occur as an upstream perturbation digs southeastward to the
eastern great lakes and adjacent areas. Our area will be
suitably between these two vorticity maxima, which at least
implies most of the day will be dry as transient ridging
suppresses convection. However, by late afternoon, the northern
cwa will likely be in close enough proximity to the front and
the upstream perturbation that convection will gradually
develop spread into these areas. As such, mostly have a dry
forecast, with gradually increasing pops late this afternoon
mainly to the northwest of the i-95 corridor.

Regarding severe potential, the threat certainly exists for a
few damaging wind gusts associated with wet microbursts. The
cape-shear parameter space is not overly impressive, but
forecast values certainly do not preclude the risk, either. The
threat appears muted somewhat owing to residual warming in the
layer just above the mixed layer (likely owing to transient
subsidence alluded to above). Midlevel lapse rates in general
are quite poor, which certainly reduces forecast CAPE (compared
to previous days, anyway). Nevertheless, shear does appear to be
somewhat stronger in proximity to the front (0-6 km bulk shear
values approaching exceeding 30 kts), so some storm organization
appears possible despite the somewhat reduced buoyancy.

Perhaps the biggest mitigating factor for severe weather today
is timing. The perturbation will still be well northwest of the
area during peak heating, and as it travels east-southeast
thereafter, it will be in the process of weakening as upstream
vorticity increases. However, the complexity of the midlevel
flow along with somewhat nebulous boundary-layer processes
suggests that the convective evolution this afternoon is
strongly tied to sub-mesoscale processes poorly resolved by even
convection-allowing model guidance. In other words, a highly
uncertain forecast for late this afternoon.

Meanwhile, it will be another hot day across the area, but as
the previous shift mentioned, the somewhat more westerly surface
flow will likely lower dew points sufficiently so that heat
indices generally remain below 100. Cannot rule out stray sites
reaching advisory thresholds in pa nj for an hour or two, but
the duration and overall magnitude do not quite compel me to
issue a heat advisory at this time.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
The perturbation digging southeastward from the eastern great
lakes today will pivot eastward and weaken overnight as yet
another perturbation digs southward to its west. This overall
scenario suggests that diurnally-driven convection along the
cold front will likely weaken during the evening as the large-
scale ascent from the first perturbation weakens and shifts
eastward. Meanwhile, another round of showers storms may occur
during the overnight hours as the ascent from the upstream
perturbation kicks in. Hi-res model simulations generally follow
this conceptual model, but there is quite a bit of variability
in the details, such as:
1. Where the two rounds of convection occur. The wrf-arw nmm
simulations feature somewhat farther north solutions than the
nam nest, although most keep the potential confined largely to
pennsylvania and new jersey.

2. The intensity of the second round of convection, with the
nam nest fairly aggressive compared to the 00z hrrr and wrf
simulations. Given nocturnal cooling effects, I am inclined to
side more with the weaker solutions.

3. Timing. The solutions have varied run-to-run in this regard,
with the 00z simulations suggesting a favored window of 00z to
06z (though with indications precipitation may linger to some
degree much of the night near the i-76 corridor). However,
previous runs were a little slower, and I suspect some
volatility will continue given the rather complex nature of the
midlevel flow and the impacts of convection upstream.

Qpf is not overly impressive as a whole, with most models
generally an inch or lower with the convection occurring
overnight. Nevertheless, pws remain fairly high, so torrential
downpours remain possible, and if training occurs, a localized
instance of flooding is certainly possible. Additionally, a
severe storm cannot be ruled out, though the threat would appear
to lower with time as instability nocturnally wanes.

The cold front's progress through the area will be slow, slow
enough for another warm muggy night across the area. However,
the temperature forecast is a little uncertain owing to the
impacts of frontal placement and convection. Kept the forecast
close to continuity.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
The long term forecast will begin with temperatures near or
slightly below normal, with drying conditions returning.

However, warmer weather and greater chances of precipitation
will return by the middle of next week.

On Friday, the cold front that moves across the area Thursday
and Thursday night will continue to push southward through the
day. However, there will be enough moisture, lift, and
instability as several short wave vorticity impulses move across
the area behind the front for some lingering showers and
thunderstorms to remain across southern new jersey, and southern
delaware and maryland. Pw values remain near 2.0 inches through
the day Friday and into the evening, so some locally heavy rain
is possible. The shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish
through the evening as the short waves pass south of the area,
and moisture gets pushed south.

As we move into the weekend, Saturday is expected to be a nice
day. High pressure builds well to our north across eastern
canada, with our area on the far southern edge. This will keep
easterly flow across the area, with temperatures near or below
normal. Dry weather is expected, with mainly afternoon evening
clouds.

However, as we move into Sunday and Monday, and possibly
Tuesday, the easterly flow will continue as high pressure builds
a little farther southward across new england. The high will
try to nose its way down the east coat toward the mid atlantic
region during this time as well. Guidance is trying to indicate
precipitation developing across the area during this period, so
we will have a slight chance of showers Sunday through Tuesday.

However, it may just end up being more cloudy rather than rainy
as some stratocumulus clouds could develop with the persistent
easterly flow.

As we move into Tuesday night and Wednesday, unsettled weather
could return to the area. An area of low pressure is forecast to
be lifting northward offshore of the east coast overnight into
Wednesday, while a cold front approaches from the west during
the day Wednesday into Wednesday night. Showers and
thunderstorms could develop on the outskirts of the low as it
lifts northward, but are more likely to affect the area with the
approach and passage of the cold front as it moves into the
area later Wednesday.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of today... MainlyVFR with winds west around 10 kts. May
see some scattered to broken cumulus around 3500-5000 feet by
late morning. Cannot rule out showers storms late near northwest
of rdg abe.

Tonight... Showers storms likely to affect the terminals during
the evening overnight, though narrowing the timing is a
challenge. Sub-vfr conditions likely as the precipitation moves
through.VFR should be the primary condition outside of
showers storms. Winds will be somewhat erratic and may
potentially be gusty near storms.

Outlook...

Friday-Friday night... MostlyVFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms for southern new jersey, and southern delaware and
maryland where locally lower conditions will be possible.

North- northwest winds during the day become north-northeast
overnight. Winds could gust around 15 knots at times overnight.

Saturday-Saturday night...VFR conditions expected. Winds
generally northeast 5-10 knots.

Sunday... MostlyVFR conditions expected. Winds remain northeast
5- 10knots, with gusts 15-20 knots possible.

Sunday night-Monday... MVFR ceilings may begin to develop
overnight Sunday and continue into Monday for some areas. Winds
remain east to northeast 5-10 knts, with gusts 15-20 knots
possible.

Marine
Sub-advisory conditions are expected through tonight. However,
winds will become more southwesterly this afternoon and
increase, with gusts around 20 kts. Seas will also hover just
under 5 feet, though should trend downward as offshore flow
becomes increasingly dominant tonight.

A chance of storms exists this evening through the overnight
hours. Locally strong gusts and higher waves should be expected
in proximity to storms.

Outlook...

Friday-Saturday night... Conditions expected to remain below
advisory levels, although winds could gust around 20 knots at
times.

Sunday-Monday... Winds may remain below advisory levels and gust
around 20 knots at times. However, seas are forecast to build
to around 5 feet, so a small craft advisory may be needed.

Rip currents...

with an offshore flow of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4
feet, we are expecting a low chance for the development of
dangerous rip currents for today.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Cms iovino
short term... Cms
long term... Robertson
aviation... Cms robertson
marine... Cms robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 13 mi80 min WSW 11 G 13 86°F 83°F1014.6 hPa (-0.8)67°F
CPVM2 16 mi50 min 90°F 65°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 18 mi56 min W 8.9 G 12 86°F 85°F1013.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 19 mi50 min 91°F 1012.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 21 mi32 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 86°F 1014.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 26 mi110 min W 5.1 87°F 1014 hPa71°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 28 mi56 min SW 8.9 G 11 86°F 84°F1013.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 30 mi50 min SE 7 G 8 84°F 1014.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 33 mi50 min W 8.9 G 9.9 87°F 1013.2 hPa
FSNM2 33 mi56 min W 8.9 G 13 1013.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi50 min NNW 2.9 G 6 90°F 83°F1013.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 37 mi56 min N 4.1 G 6 90°F 85°F1012.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 42 mi56 min SSW 5.1 G 7 85°F 87°F1014.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 43 mi56 min NNW 4.1 G 9.9 91°F 84°F1013.9 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 45 mi110 min W 4.1 89°F 1013 hPa69°F

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD7 mi30 minE 510.00 miA Few Clouds90°F71°F55%1015.2 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD13 mi40 minWSW 510.00 miFair91°F68°F46%1013.5 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD19 mi26 minW 810.00 miFair93°F64°F38%1013.5 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD21 mi40 minWNW 610.00 miFair88°F73°F62%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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S7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4S3CalmCalmSW4W5W5SW8W10
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S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E8E7NE7NE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for St. Michaels, Miles River, Maryland
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St. Michaels
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Thu -- 04:34 AM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:24 AM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:58 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:26 PM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.31.210.90.911.21.41.51.51.41.10.90.60.50.40.50.71.11.41.71.91.9

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:07 AM EDT     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:27 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:58 AM EDT     0.39 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:48 PM EDT     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:47 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:25 PM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.40-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.10.10.30.40.30.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.30.10.40.70.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.