Sunday, January17, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Michaels, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:10PM Sunday January 17, 2021 4:32 AM EST (09:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:20AMMoonset 9:55PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 341 Am Est Sun Jan 17 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm est this afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..W winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 341 Am Est Sun Jan 17 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Another upper level trough will swing through the region tonight, which could result in small craft advisories for portions of the waters. High pressure builds to the south of our region through the early parts of next week. Small craft advisories may be needed again on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Michaels, MD
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location: 38.81, -76.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 170833 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 333 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will continue to move away from the region Today through Monday. High pressure builds in for the new week and lasts into about Wednesday. Low pressure and its associated fronts will affect the region Thursday and into early Friday. More high pressure will arrive for next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Objective 00z upper-air analysis depicted a strong upper low in the Saint Lawrence Valley with an intense jet streak offshore the East Coast. Transient ridging was located in the Midwest, with another shortwave trough and digging upstream jet streak moving into the northern Plains. An intense (100+ kt) 500-mb jet streak was nosing offshore the Carolina coast, with low-level cold advection in the wake of the cold front moving through the region yesterday. The attendant surface low was moving through New England, with a strong pressure gradient evident on the southwest side. As insolation commences today, west winds will mix to the surface readily, with model soundings indicating gusts of 25 to 30 kt are attainable should mixing reach to near 850 mb. Thus, I bumped up winds (particularly gusts) today with this in mind.

Sky cover will be challenging to forecast today, as the strength of mixing may permit the development of ceilings around 5000 feet by this afternoon. Better coverage of cloudiness should be in the northwestern CWA (as usual), but there may be periods where this extends well southeast. Cloud cover will temper warming today where the cloud deck ends up, so did not stray too far from consensus for highs. The result was max temps in the 30s in the Poconos and the 40s to around 50 southeast of the urban corridor.

For tonight . the aforementioned digging vort max in the Plains will pivot quickly eastward then northeastward into the Appalachians by this evening. Should see an uptick in snow shower coverage to our west, and the proximity of the perturbation and associated lift suggest a few of these showers may move into the southern Poconos. For now, just added a mention of flurries to this area, but should model trends continue, may need to include mentionable PoPs for more substantial snow showers. Low temperatures should be near or below freezing, though increased cloud cover with the glancing perturbation may prevent a more noteworthy drop in temperatures, especially northwest of the Fall Line.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. A weak front to the north will keep some lingering snow showers across the southern Poconos early Monday. Other than that, dry weather is expected Mon and Tue as high pressure begins to build over the area. An upper trough will swing across the area Mon afternoon. Partly to mostly sunny skies with gusty winds expected both Mon and Tue with seasonable temperatures.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/.

Except for the period beginning Thu and ending early Fri, dry weather will remain across the region for the long term. The system for Thu/Thu night does not look very strong and the precipitation pattern looks disorganized in many of the models. Still, we will continue with the chance pops in the forecast for this period. Precip type will favor snow across northern NJ and the southern Poconos of PA while Delmarva and srn NJ have mainly rain.

Temperatures will be mostly below normal for Wed and then again for the weekend. Thu will have near normal readings while Fri will be 2 to 4 degrees above normal. Normal high temperatures for this time of year range from the low 40s for metro Philadelphia and Delmarva to the mid/upper 30s for the Lehigh Valley, northern NJ and Berks county. Mount Pocono has normal highs close to 30 degrees.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight . VFR with west winds around 10 kt. High confidence.

Sunday . VFR with west winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt. High confidence.

Sunday night . Mainly VFR with west to southwest winds up to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Monday thru Wed night . Generally VFR conditions. Gusty winds mostly during the daylight hours.

Thursday . Generally VFR conditions, but lower CIGS/VSBYS with scattered rain or snow showers.

MARINE. Advisory conditions are occurring across the area waters early this morning, with west to northwest winds 15 to 25 kt and higher gusts. Cannot rule out a gale-force gust or two, but coverage/duration do not appear sufficient anywhere to warrant a product upgrade. The peak wind gusts should occur through mid morning before a gradual decline through the day. Advisory conditions may cease on Delaware Bay before advisory expiration early this evening, but will keep the end timing the same for now just in case. Seas should lower below 5 feet on the Delaware Atlantic waters by this evening, so the advisory end time here looks fine for now as well.

However, I did extend the advisory for the New Jersey waters through the evening hours, as seas may hover near 5 feet through this time. Additionally, winds may diminish more slowly in this area.

Sub-advisory conditions should occur for all waters by late tonight.

Outlook .

Generally winds and seas will remain close to SCA conditions through the period with occasional gusts 20 to 25 kts. Seas will be mostly 3 to 5 ft on the ocean. Fair weather is expected with only a chance for some showers on Thu.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430- 431-454-455.

Synopsis . O'Hara Near Term . CMS Short Term . O'Hara Long Term . O'Hara Aviation . CMS/O'Hara Marine . CMS/O'Hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 13 mi32 min SSW 12 G 14 36°F 41°F1007.3 hPa (+1.6)25°F
CPVM2 16 mi44 min 37°F 28°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 18 mi44 min SW 7 G 9.9 36°F 41°F1006.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 19 mi44 min SW 4.1 G 8 35°F 42°F1005.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 21 mi32 min WSW 16 G 18 37°F 41°F1 ft
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 26 mi62 min SW 2.9 34°F 1006 hPa24°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 28 mi44 min WSW 17 G 20 37°F 41°F1006.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 33 mi44 min WSW 12 G 14 36°F 1005.8 hPa
FSNM2 33 mi44 min WSW 14 G 20 36°F 1005.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi44 min WSW 12 G 13 36°F 42°F1007.2 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 37 mi44 min W 5.1 G 7 35°F 41°F1005.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 42 mi44 min W 19 G 21 38°F 41°F1007.3 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 43 mi44 min SSW 7 G 9.9 37°F 40°F1007.1 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD7 mi37 minW 510.00 miFair37°F26°F64%1007.4 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD13 mi37 minWSW 11 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy36°F27°F70%1006.4 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD19 mi38 minWSW 410.00 miFair34°F23°F64%1006.4 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD21 mi37 minSW 510.00 miFair34°F27°F75%1007.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5W5W5W5W8W7W5W5W6SW5SW4W4W9W5SW8W7W5W8W7W6W7W7SW9
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1 day agoE5E6E6E3E4E5SE11
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SE9SE5SE5--E3SE5E3E4E6SE4W4SE7S3SE5SE4W3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW3NW3NW3NW4N4N3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmE3E3

Tide / Current Tables for St. Michaels, Miles River, Maryland
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St. Michaels
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:21 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:14 AM EST     0.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:43 PM EST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:54 PM EST     1.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:55 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20-0.1-0.10.10.40.60.80.70.60.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.20.10.40.811.110.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:03 AM EST     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:28 AM EST     0.75 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:38 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:22 PM EST     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:06 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:20 PM EST     0.77 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:56 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.9-1-0.9-0.6-0.20.20.50.70.70.50.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.5-0.3-00.30.60.80.70.50.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.