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Marine Weather and Tides St. Michaels, MD Version 3.4

NOTICE 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 6:23AM

Sunset 7:51PM

Thursday August 22, 2019 2:20 PM EDT (18:20 UTC)

Moonrise 10:43PM

Moonset 11:54AM

Illumination 54%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Michaels, MD

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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA

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Fxus61 kphi 221338 afdphi area forecast discussion national weather service mount holly nj 938 am edt Thu aug 22 2019 Synopsis A cold front will move into the area late today, before slowing down as it moves across the area. It will take until overnight for the front to move offshore. This front will continue to move to our south over the weekend as high pressure builds to our north through early next week. The high will try to nose itself down the east coast, but not fully make its way into our area. This high will retreat northward by Wednesday as an area of low lifts northward offshore of the east coast and a cold front approaches from the west. Near term until 6 pm this evening Rather complicated forecast exists today, as a slow-moving cold front will be approaching the area from the northwest as a series of shortwave troughs progress through the predominantly west-southwest midlevel flow across the northeast. Two stronger perturbations will play a key role in our area the next 24 hours. The first is a perturbation moving from the saint lawrence valley this morning to far northern new england and adjacent portions of new brunswick by this afternoon. This will occur as an upstream perturbation digs southeastward to the eastern great lakes and adjacent areas. Our area will be suitably between these two vorticity maxima, which at least implies most of the day will be dry as transient ridging suppresses convection. However, by late afternoon, the northern cwa will likely be in close enough proximity to the front and the upstream perturbation that convection will gradually develop spread into these areas. As such, mostly have a dry forecast, with gradually increasing pops late this afternoon mainly to the northwest of the i-95 corridor. Regarding severe potential, the threat certainly exists for a few damaging wind gusts associated with wet microbursts. The cape-shear parameter space is not overly impressive, but forecast values certainly do not preclude the risk, either. The threat appears muted somewhat owing to residual warming in the layer just above the mixed layer (likely owing to transient subsidence alluded to above). Midlevel lapse rates in general are quite poor, which certainly reduces forecast CAPE (compared to previous days, anyway). Nevertheless, shear does appear to be somewhat stronger in proximity to the front (0-6 km bulk shear values approaching exceeding 30 kts), so some storm organization appears possible despite the somewhat reduced buoyancy. Perhaps the biggest mitigating factor for severe weather today is timing. The perturbation will still be well northwest of the area during peak heating, and as it travels east-southeast thereafter, it will be in the process of weakening as upstream vorticity increases. However, the complexity of the midlevel flow along with somewhat nebulous boundary-layer processes suggests that the convective evolution this afternoon is strongly tied to sub-mesoscale processes poorly resolved by even convection-allowing model guidance. In other words, a highly uncertain forecast for late this afternoon. Meanwhile, it will be another hot day across the area, but as the previous shift mentioned, the somewhat more westerly surface flow will likely lower dew points sufficiently so that heat indices generally remain below 100. Cannot rule out stray sites reaching advisory thresholds in pa nj for an hour or two, but the duration and overall magnitude do not quite compel me to issue a heat advisory at this time. Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday The perturbation digging southeastward from the eastern great lakes today will pivot eastward and weaken overnight as yet another perturbation digs southward to its west. This overall scenario suggests that diurnally-driven convection along the cold front will likely weaken during the evening as the large- scale ascent from the first perturbation weakens and shifts eastward. Meanwhile, another round of showers storms may occur during the overnight hours as the ascent from the upstream perturbation kicks in. Hi-res model simulations generally follow this conceptual model, but there is quite a bit of variability in the details, such as: 1. Where the two rounds of convection occur. The wrf-arw nmm simulations feature somewhat farther north solutions than the nam nest, although most keep the potential confined largely to pennsylvania and new jersey. 2. The intensity of the second round of convection, with the nam nest fairly aggressive compared to the 00z hrrr and wrf simulations. Given nocturnal cooling effects, I am inclined to side more with the weaker solutions. 3. Timing. The solutions have varied run-to-run in this regard, with the 00z simulations suggesting a favored window of 00z to 06z (though with indications precipitation may linger to some degree much of the night near the i-76 corridor). However, previous runs were a little slower, and I suspect some volatility will continue given the rather complex nature of the midlevel flow and the impacts of convection upstream. Qpf is not overly impressive as a whole, with most models generally an inch or lower with the convection occurring overnight. Nevertheless, pws remain fairly high, so torrential downpours remain possible, and if training occurs, a localized instance of flooding is certainly possible. Additionally, a severe storm cannot be ruled out, though the threat would appear to lower with time as instability nocturnally wanes. The cold front's progress through the area will be slow, slow enough for another warm muggy night across the area. However, the temperature forecast is a little uncertain owing to the impacts of frontal placement and convection. Kept the forecast close to continuity. Long term Friday through Wednesday The long term forecast will begin with temperatures near or slightly below normal, with drying conditions returning. However, warmer weather and greater chances of precipitation will return by the middle of next week.

On Friday, the cold front that moves across the area Thursday and Thursday night will continue to push southward through the day. However, there will be enough moisture, lift, and instability as several short wave vorticity impulses move across the area behind the front for some lingering showers and thunderstorms to remain across southern new jersey, and southern delaware and maryland. Pw values remain near 2.0 inches through the day Friday and into the evening, so some locally heavy rain is possible. The shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish through the evening as the short waves pass south of the area, and moisture gets pushed south. As we move into the weekend, Saturday is expected to be a nice day. High pressure builds well to our north across eastern canada, with our area on the far southern edge. This will keep easterly flow across the area, with temperatures near or below normal. Dry weather is expected, with mainly afternoon evening clouds. However, as we move into Sunday and Monday, and possibly Tuesday, the easterly flow will continue as high pressure builds a little farther southward across new england. The high will try to nose its way down the east coat toward the mid atlantic region during this time as well. Guidance is trying to indicate precipitation developing across the area during this period, so we will have a slight chance of showers Sunday through Tuesday. However, it may just end up being more cloudy rather than rainy as some stratocumulus clouds could develop with the persistent easterly flow. As we move into Tuesday night and Wednesday, unsettled weather could return to the area. An area of low pressure is forecast to be lifting northward offshore of the east coast overnight into Wednesday, while a cold front approaches from the west during the day Wednesday into Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms could develop on the outskirts of the low as it lifts northward, but are more likely to affect the area with the approach and passage of the cold front as it moves into the area later Wednesday. Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. Rest of today... MainlyVFR with winds west around 10 kts. May see some scattered to broken cumulus around 3500-5000 feet by late morning. Cannot rule out showers storms late near northwest of rdg abe. Tonight... Showers storms likely to affect the terminals during the evening overnight, though narrowing the timing is a challenge. Sub-vfr conditions likely as the precipitation moves through.VFR should be the primary condition outside of showers storms. Winds will be somewhat erratic and may potentially be gusty near storms. Outlook... Friday-Friday night... MostlyVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms for southern new jersey, and southern delaware and maryland where locally lower conditions will be possible. North- northwest winds during the day become north-northeast overnight. Winds could gust around 15 knots at times overnight. Saturday-Saturday night...VFR conditions expected. Winds generally northeast 5-10 knots. Sunday... MostlyVFR conditions expected. Winds remain northeast 5- 10knots, with gusts 15-20 knots possible. Sunday night-Monday... MVFR ceilings may begin to develop overnight Sunday and continue into Monday for some areas. Winds remain east to northeast 5-10 knts, with gusts 15-20 knots possible. Marine Sub-advisory conditions are expected through tonight. However, winds will become more southwesterly this afternoon and increase, with gusts around 20 kts. Seas will also hover just under 5 feet, though should trend downward as offshore flow becomes increasingly dominant tonight. A chance of storms exists this evening through the overnight hours. Locally strong gusts and higher waves should be expected in proximity to storms. Outlook... Friday-Saturday night... Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels, although winds could gust around 20 knots at times. Sunday-Monday... Winds may remain below advisory levels and gust around 20 knots at times. However, seas are forecast to build to around 5 feet, so a small craft advisory may be needed. Rip currents... with an offshore flow of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet, we are expecting a low chance for the development of dangerous rip currents for today. Phi watches warnings advisories Pa... None. Nj... None. De... None. Md... None. Marine... None. Synopsis... Robertson near term... Cms iovino short term... Cms long term... Robertson aviation... Cms robertson marine... Cms robertson

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD	13 mi	80 min	WSW 11 G 13	86°F	83°F		1014.6 hPa (-0.8)	67°F
CPVM2	16 mi	50 min		90°F				65°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD	18 mi	56 min	W 8.9 G 12	86°F	85°F		1013.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD	19 mi	50 min		91°F			1012.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD	21 mi	32 min	SSW 3.9 G 3.9	86°F			1014.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD	26 mi	110 min	W 5.1	87°F			1014 hPa	71°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD	28 mi	56 min	SW 8.9 G 11	86°F	84°F		1013.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD	30 mi	50 min	SE 7 G 8	84°F			1014.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD	33 mi	50 min	W 8.9 G 9.9	87°F			1013.2 hPa
FSNM2	33 mi	56 min	W 8.9 G 13				1013.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD	36 mi	50 min	NNW 2.9 G 6	90°F	83°F		1013.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD	37 mi	56 min	N 4.1 G 6	90°F	85°F		1012.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD	42 mi	56 min	SSW 5.1 G 7	85°F	87°F		1014.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	43 mi	56 min	NNW 4.1 G 9.9	91°F	84°F		1013.9 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE	45 mi	110 min	W 4.1	89°F			1013 hPa	69°F

Wind History for Cambridge, MD

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S12 G19

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD	7 mi	30 min	E 5	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	90°F	71°F	55%	1015.2 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD	13 mi	40 min	WSW 5	10.00 mi	Fair	91°F	68°F	46%	1013.5 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD	19 mi	26 min	W 8	10.00 mi	Fair	93°F	64°F	38%	1013.5 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD	21 mi	40 min	WNW 6	10.00 mi	Fair	88°F	73°F	62%	1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)

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S13 G16

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Tide / Current Tables for St. Michaels, Miles River, Maryland

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Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.