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Marine Weather and Tides St. Michaels, MD Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 5:46AM

Sunset 8:32PM

Thursday July 9, 2020 7:34 AM EDT (11:34 UTC)

Moonrise 10:44PM

Moonset 9:07AM

Illumination 84%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Michaels, MD

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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA

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FXUS61 KPHI 090815 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will continue to influence our weather into Thursday. Weak low pressure centered along the Carolina coast this afternoon is forecast to progress to the north. The low is expected to pass through or near our region on Friday and Friday night. A frontal boundary is anticipated to approach from the northwest on Saturday. The front is expected to move slowly through our region on Sunday and Monday before drifting away to our southeast during the middle of the new week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Yet another morning of low clouds and fog (dense it some spots) this morning. With the winds remaining fairly light, expect it may take a bit longer to fully clear/lift and could persist through at least mid morning.

Once the fog and low clouds clear out, we should actually have a decent day across the forecast area as weak high pressure continues to nose down into the Mid Atlantic. Skies will be relatively clear with increasing cloudiness through the day. With ample sunshine, temperatures will rise back into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region. Once again, dew points will be high and in the low to mid 70s, keeping it humid outside, with heat index values into the low to mid 90s.

There still remains a chance for some showers or thunderstorms across portions of the forecast area later this afternoon. However, with weak ridging across the region, expect the majority of the day to be dry with some instability showers popping up over the Lehigh Valley and southern Poconos. Some showers and/or thunderstorms may start to push into southern Delaware and nearby areas of Maryland by late afternoon/early evening as the next system starts to push closer to our area.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. . A Coastal Low Pressure System will likely bring heavy rains to the Mid Atlantic .

Impacts: We will see building seas and a substantial increase in the chances for life threatening Rip Currents overnight Thursday into Friday. From early Friday morning through Friday evening, there is the potential for widespread heavy rain. Along the coastal areas we'll see the potential for gusty winds of 30-35kts over the waters and along the shore. As the low deepen's we'll see an increase in tidal waters however significant tidal flooding isn't currently anticipated.

The focus for the short term forecast remains the development and evolution of the tropical/subtropical system that is starting to take shape off the North Carolina coastline. Recent radar reflectivity indicates that a circulation has developed and based on the satellite presentation, there is quite a bit of deep convection developing on the northeastern extent of the system. This is slightly east of where most of the models this evening initialized and thus the system may continue to increase in intensity over the warmer Atlantic waters.

The system will start to push north through the day today and we will start to feel the impacts overnight Thursday night into Friday morning. The trends in the guidance remain consistent that the low shouldn't be particularly strong when it reaches our area. However the tropical airmass still looks to have the potential to produce widespread heavy rain across the region. Given the recent rains and flooding across portions of the forecast area, we'll need to continue to monitor where the axis of the heaviest precip will end up falling. Winds will start to increase overnight tonight into Friday morning and we may see some 30-40kt gusts over the waters however as the winds move on shore the higher roughness length and frictional effects of land will cause the winds to rapidly weaken.

Based on a blend of national guidance, the previous forecast, and a blend of the models except the GFS, we're currently thinking that we'll see an average of 2 to 3 inches across DelMarVa and eastern Jersey with between 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over eastern PA. The GFS is the most west in its deterministic low pressure center however the GEFS mean is well east of that deterministic run. So I hedged towards an inland system but further east of the GFS and quite a bit slower as well. Either way the heavy rains should pass out of the region late Friday evening as a frontal boundary approaches from the west.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. From the weekend onwards, a frontal boundary is forecast to approach from the northwest on Saturday and it is expected to move slowly through our region through the weekend. There will likely be enough moisture and instability during the afternoon and early evening each day to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The front is anticipated to move away to our southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, there is a decreasing chance of precipitation at that time.

Temperatures should favor the middle 80s to the lower 90s from Saturday through Wednesday.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . A mixture of low clouds and fog across the terminals this morning will lift and dissipate around 14Z-15Z, giving way to VFR conditions for much of the day. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly at KRDG and KABE but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. Southeast to east winds around 5 to 10 knots. Moderate to high confidence.

Tonight . Mainly VFR conditions expected with MVFR or lower conditions moving in from south to north in rain and thunderstorms. Conditions will deteriorate around 02Z-04Z for KACY and KMIV, between 04-06Z for KILG, KPHL, KPNE, and KTTN, and after 06Z for KABE and KRDG. East to northeast winds around 5 to 15 knots, with higher gusts possible. Moderate confidence overall but low confidence on timing of lower conditions.

Outlook .

Friday . MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms. The rain will be heavy at times. East northeast winds backing to Northeast wind around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts across the DE/NJ terminals and generally 5 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 for the PA terminals. Medium confidence.

Friday night . MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms with a decreasing chance of rain overnight. Variable wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming light northwest during the late evening hours. Medium confidence.

Saturday . Mainly VFR with periods of MVFR possible in showers. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. West to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Saturday night . Mainly VFR. A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Late night visibility restrictions are possible. Variable wind 6 knots or less. Medium confidence.

Sunday . Mainly VFR. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. West to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Sunday night . Mainly VFR. A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Late night visibility restrictions are possible. Variable wind 6 knots or less. Medium confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR with periods of MVFR possible in showers. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. West to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

MARINE. Sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue on the area waters through this evening with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected tonight, over the Delaware Bay and the Atlantic waters south of Brigantine and Atlantic City.

Easterly winds around 10 to 15 knots, increasing from south to north tonight becoming 15 to 25 with gusts up to 30 knots. Showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon through tonight, mainly over the southern waters and pushing northward overnight. Seas around 2 to 3 feet during the day building to 5 to 8 feet overnight.

Outlook .

Friday . A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our ocean waters for wind gusts up to 35 knots and wave heights building to 5 to 7 feet.

Friday night . Wave heights on our ocean waters may remain around 4 to 6 feet.

Saturday through Monday . No marine headlines are anticipated.

Rip Currents .

There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Thursday, as an east-to-southeast medium-period swell will begin to increase. This will occur as a coastal low begins to intensify to the south of the area. Conditions are expected to deteriorate on Friday, as a longer-period swell begins to develop with seas continuing to build as the low begins to move into the region. A high risk of dangerous rip currents is currently forecast for Friday, with potential for an elevated rip current risk to continue through the weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The area of low pressure moving northward near the coast from Thursday night through Friday night is not expected to be particularly strong, and it should be somewhat progressive. As a result, we are not anticipating much in the way of tidal flooding. Positive departures in excess of 2 feet are needed to produce minor flooding. It seems as though tidal departures will remain less than 2 feet at most coastal locations on Friday.

EQUIPMENT. The Reading Regional Airport (KRDG) ASOS has returned to service.

The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ452>455. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450- 451. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Iovino Near Term . Meola Short Term . Deal Long Term . Deal/Iovino Aviation . Deal/Meola Marine . Deal/Meola Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI Equipment . WFO PHI

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD	13 mi	35 min	E 7 G 8	76°F	80°F		1016 hPa (+1.1)	76°F
CPVM2	16 mi	47 min		76°F				73°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD	18 mi	47 min	E 7 G 8.9	76°F	83°F		1014.7 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD	19 mi	47 min	ESE 5.1 G 7	77°F	83°F		1014.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD	21 mi	29 min	ESE 7.8 G 9.7	77°F	82°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD	26 mi	125 min	Calm				1013 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD	28 mi	47 min	ESE 5.1 G 7
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD	30 mi	53 min	ESE 8 G 8.9				1014.8 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD	33 mi	47 min	SE 5.1 G 7	78°F			1014.9 hPa
FSNM2	33 mi	65 min	ESE 7 G 8.9	77°F			1014.9 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD	36 mi	47 min	E 8 G 8.9	78°F	81°F		1014 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD	37 mi	47 min	ENE 2.9 G 4.1	79°F	84°F		1014.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD	42 mi	47 min	ESE 8 G 8.9	77°F	83°F		1014.1 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	43 mi	47 min	E 1.9 G 2.9	76°F	86°F		1015 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD

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8 AM

9 AM

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Last 24hr

SE5 G8

SE4

SE3 G6

NE4

E4

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E4

SE5 G9

SW8 G12

S5 G9

SE7 G10

SE7 G10

SE6

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E6 G9

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1 day ago

E8 G11

E5 G8

NE6

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NE4

SE5

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SE5 G10

SE10 G16

SE11 G16

S9 G13

SE8 G12

SE9 G13

SE7

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2 days ago

S7 G11

S6 G9

SW6 G10

S6 G10

S9 G12

SW9 G13

S10 G15

S11 G16

S9 G14

SE12 G17

SE10 G13

N15 G31

E16

E9 G13

NE1

N2

S10

S7

S6

SE3

SW1

NE8

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD	7 mi	45 min	ENE 3	5.00 mi	Fog/Mist	75°F	73°F	94%	1016.3 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD	13 mi	60 min	ESE 3	7.00 mi	Overcast	75°F	0°F	%	1015.2 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD	19 mi	1.7 hrs	ESE 7	9.00 mi	Overcast	77°F	75°F	94%	1014.6 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD	21 mi	60 min	no data	5.00 mi	Fog/Mist	75°F	75°F	100%	1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)

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SE3

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SE6

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W4

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SE4

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1 day ago

E5

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Calm

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E9

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2 days ago

S5

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S7

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S11 G14

SW8

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S13 G16

SE11

S6

N8

NE18 G24

E11 G15

SE7

NW3

S7

SW9

S5

S3

E4

E4

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Tide / Current Tables for St. Michaels, Miles River, Maryland

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Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE

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