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Marine Weather and Tides St. Michaels, MD Version 3.4

NOTICE 8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it. 8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue. 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:18AM

Sunset 5:10PM

Sunday January 17, 2021 4:32 AM EST (09:32 UTC)

Moonrise 10:20AM

Moonset 9:55PM

Illumination 16%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Michaels, MD

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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA

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FXUS61 KPHI 170833 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 333 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will continue to move away from the region Today through Monday. High pressure builds in for the new week and lasts into about Wednesday. Low pressure and its associated fronts will affect the region Thursday and into early Friday. More high pressure will arrive for next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Objective 00z upper-air analysis depicted a strong upper low in the Saint Lawrence Valley with an intense jet streak offshore the East Coast. Transient ridging was located in the Midwest, with another shortwave trough and digging upstream jet streak moving into the northern Plains. An intense (100+ kt) 500-mb jet streak was nosing offshore the Carolina coast, with low-level cold advection in the wake of the cold front moving through the region yesterday. The attendant surface low was moving through New England, with a strong pressure gradient evident on the southwest side. As insolation commences today, west winds will mix to the surface readily, with model soundings indicating gusts of 25 to 30 kt are attainable should mixing reach to near 850 mb. Thus, I bumped up winds (particularly gusts) today with this in mind.

Sky cover will be challenging to forecast today, as the strength of mixing may permit the development of ceilings around 5000 feet by this afternoon. Better coverage of cloudiness should be in the northwestern CWA (as usual), but there may be periods where this extends well southeast. Cloud cover will temper warming today where the cloud deck ends up, so did not stray too far from consensus for highs. The result was max temps in the 30s in the Poconos and the 40s to around 50 southeast of the urban corridor.

For tonight . the aforementioned digging vort max in the Plains will pivot quickly eastward then northeastward into the Appalachians by this evening. Should see an uptick in snow shower coverage to our west, and the proximity of the perturbation and associated lift suggest a few of these showers may move into the southern Poconos. For now, just added a mention of flurries to this area, but should model trends continue, may need to include mentionable PoPs for more substantial snow showers. Low temperatures should be near or below freezing, though increased cloud cover with the glancing perturbation may prevent a more noteworthy drop in temperatures, especially northwest of the Fall Line.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. A weak front to the north will keep some lingering snow showers across the southern Poconos early Monday. Other than that, dry weather is expected Mon and Tue as high pressure begins to build over the area. An upper trough will swing across the area Mon afternoon. Partly to mostly sunny skies with gusty winds expected both Mon and Tue with seasonable temperatures.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/.

Except for the period beginning Thu and ending early Fri, dry weather will remain across the region for the long term. The system for Thu/Thu night does not look very strong and the precipitation pattern looks disorganized in many of the models. Still, we will continue with the chance pops in the forecast for this period. Precip type will favor snow across northern NJ and the southern Poconos of PA while Delmarva and srn NJ have mainly rain.

Temperatures will be mostly below normal for Wed and then again for the weekend. Thu will have near normal readings while Fri will be 2 to 4 degrees above normal. Normal high temperatures for this time of year range from the low 40s for metro Philadelphia and Delmarva to the mid/upper 30s for the Lehigh Valley, northern NJ and Berks county. Mount Pocono has normal highs close to 30 degrees.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight . VFR with west winds around 10 kt. High confidence.

Sunday . VFR with west winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt. High confidence.

Sunday night . Mainly VFR with west to southwest winds up to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Monday thru Wed night . Generally VFR conditions. Gusty winds mostly during the daylight hours.

Thursday . Generally VFR conditions, but lower CIGS/VSBYS with scattered rain or snow showers.

MARINE. Advisory conditions are occurring across the area waters early this morning, with west to northwest winds 15 to 25 kt and higher gusts. Cannot rule out a gale-force gust or two, but coverage/duration do not appear sufficient anywhere to warrant a product upgrade. The peak wind gusts should occur through mid morning before a gradual decline through the day. Advisory conditions may cease on Delaware Bay before advisory expiration early this evening, but will keep the end timing the same for now just in case. Seas should lower below 5 feet on the Delaware Atlantic waters by this evening, so the advisory end time here looks fine for now as well.

However, I did extend the advisory for the New Jersey waters through the evening hours, as seas may hover near 5 feet through this time. Additionally, winds may diminish more slowly in this area.

Sub-advisory conditions should occur for all waters by late tonight.

Outlook .

Generally winds and seas will remain close to SCA conditions through the period with occasional gusts 20 to 25 kts. Seas will be mostly 3 to 5 ft on the ocean. Fair weather is expected with only a chance for some showers on Thu.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430- 431-454-455.

Synopsis . O'Hara Near Term . CMS Short Term . O'Hara Long Term . O'Hara Aviation . CMS/O'Hara Marine . CMS/O'Hara

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD	13 mi	32 min	SSW 12 G 14	36°F	41°F		1007.3 hPa (+1.6)	25°F
CPVM2	16 mi	44 min		37°F				28°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD	18 mi	44 min	SW 7 G 9.9	36°F	41°F		1006.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD	19 mi	44 min	SW 4.1 G 8	35°F	42°F		1005.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD	21 mi	32 min	WSW 16 G 18	37°F	41°F	1 ft
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD	26 mi	62 min	SW 2.9	34°F			1006 hPa	24°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD	28 mi	44 min	WSW 17 G 20	37°F	41°F		1006.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD	33 mi	44 min	WSW 12 G 14	36°F			1005.8 hPa
FSNM2	33 mi	44 min	WSW 14 G 20	36°F			1005.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD	36 mi	44 min	WSW 12 G 13	36°F	42°F		1007.2 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD	37 mi	44 min	W 5.1 G 7	35°F	41°F		1005.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD	42 mi	44 min	W 19 G 21	38°F	41°F		1007.3 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	43 mi	44 min	SSW 7 G 9.9	37°F	40°F		1007.1 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD

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SW5

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W9 G12

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W8 G11

W7 G12

W9 G12

W8 G11

NW7 G10

SW5 G10

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W7 G11

NW15 G19

SW10 G13

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W9 G14

SW7 G14

W11 G15

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SW10 G15

SW6

1 day ago

E4

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SE12 G16

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S8 G11

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SW3 G7

2 days ago

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD	7 mi	37 min	W 5	10.00 mi	Fair	37°F	26°F	64%	1007.4 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD	13 mi	37 min	WSW 11 G 17	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	36°F	27°F	70%	1006.4 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD	19 mi	38 min	WSW 4	10.00 mi	Fair	34°F	23°F	64%	1006.4 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD	21 mi	37 min	SW 5	10.00 mi	Fair	34°F	27°F	75%	1007.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)

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NW5

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W9

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SW9 G14

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1 day ago

E5

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SE11 G16

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Calm

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Calm

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NE3

Calm

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E3

E3

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Tide / Current Tables for St. Michaels, Miles River, Maryland

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Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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