Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Basye, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Spotty showers embedded in a broader area of drizzle this morning persist north of a warm/wedge front and east of an occluded front, roughly over northern VA and much of MD. This will gradually lift away as the frontal system pulls through, with initiation of convective showers and a few thunderstorms likely where cloud breaks develop between noon and 2 PM, mainly south of I-70 and east of US-15.

Previous discussion...
The upper trough will close off today into Friday overhead while an area of low pressure gets going off the Delmarva Coast.
This low will eventually track northeast into New England bringing a late season Nor'easter. Locally, most models have a dry slot over the area later this morning. Depending on how long the dry slot lasts, some clearing is possible as indicated by some models. By this afternoon, a few showers and even a thunderstorm should develop and move eastward. Shear and CAPE both look a bit marginal for anything severe, but a stronger storm or two can't be ruled out especially if a little more heating takes place.

A notable temperature gradient is forecast across the area today. Mid to upper 40s across the Alleghenies with near 70 across central VA into southern MD. This is well below average for the whole area. Another cold night tonight with 40s to near 50 for most. The Alleghenies will likely fall into the 30s above 3kft, however gusty winds to 20-30 kts will prevent any frost formation.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A few additional showers may pop up during the day Friday as the upper low swings by, but most of the forcing and deeper moisture by this point should be moving off to our north and east. As colder air moves in aloft, would not be surprised with graupel across the Alleghenies. Those above 4kft such as Spruce Knob may even have a little late season snow.

Highs and lows Friday into Friday night a degree or two colder than those of today/tonight.

High pressure builds in Saturday bringing dry conditions, but staying on the chilly side with highs in the 60s to low 70s for most (50s mtns).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A narrow area of high pressure may persist over the area through Sunday, in between the departing trough in the Canadian Maritimes, troughs in the northern plains and desert southwest, and a frontal zone stretched across the mid south and southeast. Rain chances may increase from the southwest toward evening.

While exact details are uncertain, it appears the two troughs to the west will phase, perhaps eventually becoming a closed low. Surface low pressure will develop over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, eventually transferring to a new low off the coast next week. In fact some model solutions don't look too dissimilar from the system that has currently been affecting the area. Rain showers will become likely at some point Monday into Tuesday, perhaps continuing into Wednesday depending on the speed of the system. Temperatures, rainfall amounts, and thunderstorm chances will depend in part on how far north the warm front makes it. While at this time, the local area appears to stay on the stable side of the boundary, the high to the north isn't quite as strong and could allow northward progress.
Despite this uncertainty, temperatures will likely remain near or below normal through the middle of next week.

AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IFR CIGs and some lower VSBY in DZ/BR persists this morning, and conditions should gradually lift between 15Z-19Z as a frontal system slides through. Winds will be light but may be a bit erratic in direction through midday until the fronts lift by.

Additional showers will likely develop today as an upper level disturbance passes. With limited instability and abundant clouds, believe thunderstorm chances are closer to 20 percent and have continued not using PROB30 in the TAF for thunderstorms. Winds will shift around to the south and west as low pressure near Lake Erie redevelops off the Delmarva coast today. The low will move up the coast leading to diminishing coverage of showers (though chances will linger) by the evening, with winds turning to the W/NW late today into Friday.

VFR conditions likely continue through Sunday with lighter northwest winds. An approaching warm front will bring increasing rain chances and sub-VFR ceilings at some point Monday or Monday night.

MARINE
Low pressure will redevelop off the SE VA shore and move up the coast today into Friday. W/NW winds will increase as the low moves up the coast, therefore have issued SCAs for the Potomac and southern Chesapeake for this afternoon into tonight. Still come uncertainty with duration of SCA level winds, but thought it was prudent to issue an SCA even if timing is off by an hour or two. Showers and or a thunderstorm are possible this afternoon.

Another round of SCAs are likely Friday into Friday night in the NW'ly flow. Will let future shifts issue. SCAs likely continue through the first half of Saturday, but as high pressure moves in, SCA winds should diminish.

While northwest flow will be lighter Sunday with approaching high pressure, marginal advisory conditions remain possible. Winds will turn around to the east or southeast Monday as a warm front approaches from the south.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The combination of strong high pressure to the north over Ontario with low pressure passing through to the south will keep winds easterly through this morning. The worst of this coastal flood event has already occurred, but some minor flooding threat persists due to residual excess water. Once the winds turn to W/NW, anomalies will drop.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ016>018.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ057.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ532-540.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ533-534-537- 541-543.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-536-542.