Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bunker Hill, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

As of 145 PM Thursday afternoon, broad northwest midlevel flow was present across the central and southern Plains with a shortwave trough moving through the mid-MO valley. A surface low has developed across southwest OK with a warm front extending through north- central OK. Modest low-level WAA overtop the warm front has allowed for the development of showers and storms across far south-central KS. Latest RAP/HRRR forecast soundings depict 400-500 J/kg of elevated instability above 700 mb. An acceleration of winds above 700 mb are contributing to 30-40 kt of effective shear. While severe weather appears unlikely with the limited instability, the strongest updrafts may produce hail up to dime size and wind gusts up to 40 mph. As an area of surface high pressure builds into the area this evening the best low-level WAA will be shunted west, ending the rain/storm chance this evening.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will quickly return by Friday morning as the low-level WAA pattern returns the forecast area. In addition, a midlevel perturbation is forecast to eject into the area Friday afternoon. This may set the stage for multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity Friday. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to steepen up to 8-8.5 C/km, contributing to elevated instability up to 1500 J/kg. Wind profiles strengthen with the approach of the midlevel perturbation. Effective shear values are likely to exceed 40 kt. All of that to say, the WAA driven thunderstorms Friday morning will be capable of hail up to golf ball size and heavy rainfall. The second round is likely to form over northeast CO/northwest KS Friday afternoon and propagate southeast throughout the evening hours. Continued steep lapse rates will support a large hail threat. Damaging winds will be possible as well with DCAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg. A third area of thunderstorm development is possible Friday evening into Friday night on the nose of strengthening LLJ. At this point the nose looks to set up along Highway 400 or 50. Again, the background environment will support elevated supercells with large hail up to golf ball size. The WAA axis will shift south and east through the overnight hours Friday into Saturday morning. While a shower or storm cannot be ruled out Saturday, any activity should be isolated at best.

The next midlevel perturbation will traverse the area Saturday night into Sunday morning in-conjunction with the return of a strong low- level WAA pattern. This will set the stage for more thunderstorm activity across much of the area. Again, the background environment will remain conducive for elevated supercells capable of golf ball size hail and heavy rainfall. This active period with multiple rounds of showers and storms is expected to continue through the weekend and into next week. One of the important questions is, how much rainfall can we expect through early next week. Deterministic and ensemble guidance give the entire area at least a 50% chance for receiving 1+" of rainfall through early next week. Areas along and southeast of the KS Turnpike stand a >50% chance for receiving 2+" of rainfall through early next week. And finally, all of southeast KS stands >50% chance for receiving 3+" of rainfall through early next week. Given the recent heavy rainfall across southeast KS and the additional heavy rainfall expected in the coming days, have hoisted a flood watch for Allen, Wilson, Neosho, Chautauqua, Montgomery, and Labette counties from 7 PM Friday through 7 PM Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected through most of this TAF period with relatively light winds and mostly clear skies. Storms are possible after 15z Friday. Uncertainty is high on timing of the storms, so a PROB30 has been added to all sites to account for potential storms. Lower ceilings are likely but confidence is low on dropping to MVFR.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from Friday evening through Monday evening for KSZ072-095-096-098>100.