Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for George Mason, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Early morning light rain continues in the Alleghenies, with widespread mid-level cloudiness across the area in response to a broad upper trough over the region. A surface low off Cape Code early this morning continues to push away from the area into tonight.

Allegheny Mountain rain showers likely continue all day as moisture off the Great Lakes in west/northwest flow persists on the backside of the upper trough. Elsewhere, a few stray light showers are possible this morning, but conditions should remain dry for the most part. Cloudy skies persist most of the day, then finally begin to clear late in the afternoon as dry air advects in.

Breezy conditions develop late morning through this evening, with winds gusting around 25-30 mph and up to 40 mph in the mountains.
Below normal temperatures once again today as highs reach the mid to upper 60s, with low 70s in Central VA to Southern MD to around the DC Metro. Quite chilly tonight by late May standards as lows drop to the 40s across the area.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The influence from the upper trough wanes this weekend as it slides just north/east from the area. The surface pressure gradient slackens over the Mid-Atlantic as the surface low retreats to Nova Scotia. Breezy conditions Saturday afternoon, though not as strong as previous days, with gusts around 20-25 mph. Dry conditions are expected from Saturday through at least Sunday afternoon.

A weak wave of low pressure moves just south of the area. This could push a weak frontal boundary northward into central VA, possibly bringing a few showers by Sunday evening. Temperatures this weekend start to increase a bit, though still remain below normal in the 60s to low 70s. Still quite chilly Saturday and Sunday nights as lows drop to the 40s, with upper 30s in parts of the Alleghenies.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure will weaken and move to the east on Monday to allow for a low pressure system to ride eastward along the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys toward the mid-Atlantic. This low will bring rain showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms to much of the region late Monday through early Wednesday. It is a little too early to tell how much rain may fall in this 36 hour period considering we may be looking at another two-part storm system...a surface front- running low pressure system and then a mid/upper level low that could trail the surface low. Either way, much of the region should get another Spring dosing of rainfall early to mid-week.

Temperatures will be 5 to 7 degrees below average early in the week, but should modify to near average or slightly above average by mid- week.

Perhaps, later Wednesday and into Thursday, the last of the possible complex low pressure system will make its way east and out of the area to give us a brief chance to dry out. Models are indicating that the drying out period may be short-lived midday Thursday into Thursday night, as yet another low pressure could make take aim to our mid-Atlantic region.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the weekend. Abundant mid level clouds persist through this afternoon, then slowly start to dissipate this evening into tonight. Breezy conditions expected this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. The strongest gusts will be today at 20-25 knots, then around 20 knots for Saturday. Winds diminish and will be light on Sunday.

VFR conditions Monday. MVFR conditions may arrive at CHO Monday night, then at all terminals Tuesday through early Wednesday as rain showers and thunderstorms make a presence. Winds north becoming northeast and light Monday. Winds becoming southeast 5 to 15 knots Monday night through Tuesday night. Winds could be gusty in any thunderstorms.

MARINE
Periods of SCA winds are expected from after sunrise through this evening across all the waters, with winds gusting around 20-25 knots. Winds diminish this evening into tonight, falling below SCA levels on the middle/upper tidal Potomac and other tributaries and bays along the Chesapeake. However, winds likely remain elevated along the main channel of the Chesapeake Bay through the night.

Another surge of winds, albeit at lower magnitude, unfolds Saturday morning through late Saturday afternoon, when northwest winds gust up to around 20 knots. Additional Small Craft Advisories will be needed to cover this threat. Winds finally diminish below SCA levels Saturday night and remain light Sunday into Sunday night.

No marine hazards Monday through Tuesday night. Winds north becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots Monday into Monday night. Winds becoming southeast 10 knots Tuesday and Tuesday night.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Offshore winds continue over the weekend that will lead to a gradual decline in water levels across the Potomac and Chesapeake Bay.
Sensitive ares in Annapolis, Havre de Grace, and DC SW Waterfront will reach Action Stage later this morning. Otherwise and after that, the expectation is for water levels to continue dropping through the weekend, with no tidal flooding expected.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530-531-539.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ532>534- 537-540-541-543.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-536-538-542.