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FXUS65 KPUB 042110 AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 310 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Key Messages:

1) Sub-freezing temperatures expected tonight for the San Luis Valley.

The latest RAP 500mb analysis indicates a short wave trough axis extending from northeastern Colorado south-southwestward along the Front Range and into the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure extends from the Pacific Northwest southeastward into the area. The latest visible satellite imagery indicates diurnal cumulus mostly aligned orographically with the mountain ranges with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. Showers this afternoon are limited to just isolated coverage with snow showers over the highest peaks of the southern Sangre de Cristos.

This evening into Thursday, the 500mb short wave trough will slide southeastward across the area and high pressure will continue to build in across the region. In the wake of the trough, a dry northwesterly 500 mb flow will persist across the area. Model relative humidity time-height cross sections are in agreement, indicating a deep layer of dry air building in tonight and persisting through Thursday. This will allow for skies to clear overnight with light and variable winds expected across the area.
Sunny skies can be expected across the area tomorrow.

For temperatures, there is a good radiational cooling pattern setup overnight. This will allow for a freeze to occur for the San Luis Valley and thus the Freeze Warning remains in effect for tonight.
Lows tonight will range from the the lower to mid 20s in the higher elevations to the mid to upper 20s in the mountain valleys to the lower to mid 40s in the Plains. With abundant sunshine, models are in agreement that temperatures will recover nicely across the area tomorrow and thus the forecast is closest to the National Blend of Models (NBM). Highs on Thursday will range from the lower 70s in the Plains to the 60s in the mountain valleys to generally the 40s and 50s for mountain communities.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Key Messages:

1) Sub-freezing temperatures are possible Thursday night and again Friday night across the San Luis Valley.

2) Lows on the Plains will fall into the 30s across the Plains Friday night into Saturday morning.

Models continue to be in good agreement through much of the extended with generally dry conditions across the region.
Temperatures will be the main concern, especially Thursday and Friday nights. A warming trend is forecast through the weekend into early next week.

Thursday night through Saturday...upper troughing over the Ohio Valley, and upper ridging along the West Coast will put southern Colorado under dry northwesterly flow during this period. Not anticipating any precipitation at this this time, and temperatures will be the main concern. Overnight lows Thursday night will fall to near 30 across the San Luis Valley. Opted to not issue a freeze watch given the uncertainty of how low temperatures will fall.
Lows across the Plains will fall into the 40s.

A cold front will arrive Friday morning, with winds shifting northerly, ushering in cool air. Breezy conditions are forecast near the Kansas border, where gusts in excess of 30 mph are forecast. Afternoon highs will be cooler, with most areas on the Plains reaching the 50s to lower 60s. Winds will weaken throughout the evening, and skies will be clear. This should help temperatures fall across the San Luis Valley into the upper 20s, while lows on the Plains will fall into the 30s. The main issue will be warm air moving in aloft, which could keep temperatures from reaching freezing. But, low lying areas along the lower Arkansas River Valley could dip briefly below freezing Saturday morning. Those with sensitive outdoor plants may want to start preparing to protect them. If the warmer air is slower to arrive, temperatures could fall below freezing.

Saturday, upper ridging will begin to move east into Colorado.
This will allow for warming across the region back into the 70s.

Sunday through Wednesday...upper ridging is forecast to move across Colorado for late in the weekend and early next week.
Temperatures will warm back into the 70s and 80s each afternoon across the Plains, and 60s to lower 70s across the San Luis Valley. Weak energy moving under the upper ridge will help moisten the region. This will likely lead to isolated to scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms over the Mountains. This looks especially true for Tuesday into Wednesday. Mozley

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023

High pressure will continue to build into the area, allowing for skies to clear tonight. Thus, VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals throughout the TAF period. Winds at 5-10 knots will decrease overnight to be variable at less than 5 knots.
Light and variable winds can be expected again on Thursday.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Thursday for COZ069>071.

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