Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ellendale, DE

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
715 PM update...
Showers and isolated storms are proving more persistent as they move in from the west with the approaching cold front, so have boosted POPs across the region, particularly the Poconos but also NW NJ and the Lehigh Valley. Still think any showers struggle to make it to I-95 corridor but a few sprinkles wouldn't shock me. Otherwise boosted winds for Sunday up with gust on land up to 40 mph, and added some low chance pops in the northwest closer to the upper low and northwesterly flow.

113 PM discussion...
A mix of sun and clouds continues for this afternoon and into this evening. A cold front moves in during the evening from the west as a surface low pressure system moves east from Ontario into Quebec while the associated upper level low lumbers across the lower Great Lakes. Any showers or thunderstorms look limited for the remainder of Saturday. There is still a marginal risk for parts of mainly northern New Jersey for an isolated strong to severe storm but this threat looks low. Winds do continue to pick up through this evening out of the WSW with gusts at times to 20 to 30 mph.

For tonight, both the surface and upper low pass by to our north as they move into New England. Any leftover showers/storms diminish after sunset as drier air continues to move in and also due to the loss of daytime heating. It will be cooler than recent nights with lows generally ranging from the low to mid 50s north to the low 60s south.

Sunday is looking like the better half of the weekend as tranquil weather returns with the upper trough moving farther east. The second half of our weekend features a partly cloudy sky mainly dry conditions and lower humidity. Perhaps an isolated shower is possible north and west, but general thinking is most of the area will stay dry. The one thing to note is winds will increase as diurnal mixing occurs as the area lies wedged between systems resulting in a tightening pressure gradient. WNW winds will gust up to around 30 mph at times.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The upper level low over the Northeast US will move east into the North Atlantic on Monday. This will give way to northwest flow as a subtle mid-level ridge moves into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a secondary cold front crosses through the region early Sunday night with high pressure over Canada extending its ridging southward through Tuesday.

All in all, a benign weather period is anticipated across the Mid- Atlantic region through Tuesday. Mostly clear skies and dry weather is expected. Winds will remain a bit breezy Sunday night into Monday with gusts up to 30 mph as the pressure gradient remains modest in combination with downsloping northwest flow. Lighter winds are expected for Monday night and Tuesday. Highs will mostly be in the 70s on Monday with a mix of 60s/70s on Tuesday. Lows will be in the 40s/50s at night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
By Tuesday night and through the middle of the week, our attention turns to our next weather system which will take aim at the area. A deep upper trough is expected to close off over the northern Great Lakes region on Wednesday. This feature is then forecast to gain a negative tilt as a vigorous piece of energy rounds the base of the trough Wednesday night into Thursday. The upper low will then meander over the Northeast US through Friday.

Global and ensemble guidance continues to develop an area of low pressure at the surface over the Ohio Valley while tracking up into the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday. As it does so, a secondary coastal low will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Wednesday night while deepening as it moves up into New England on Thursday.
These features support another period of active and unsettled weather with periods of rain starting as early as Tuesday night. For now the heaviest rain looks to hold off until Wednesday and Thursday where rain may be heavy at times. This potential is still quite a few days out, so have continued to keep the forecast in line with NBM guidance. PoPs have increased over the last 24 hours however, now yielding roughly a 50-80% chance of rain on Wednesday and Thursday. Shower chances decrease a bit Thursday night into Friday, but still remain around 30-50% as the area remains situated under the upper trough. Below normal temperatures are expected throughout the period.

AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. A shower may reach KABE and KRDG this evening, resulting in brief reductions. Winds W to WNW around 10 kts with a few gusts up to 20 kts. Moderate confidence.

Sunday...VFR. Winds increase out of the WNW in the morning, ranging from 15-20 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR. Occasional wind gusts up to 25-30 kt possible through Monday, otherwise no significant weather expected.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Sub-VFR conditions probable with rain showers likely.

MARINE
Sub SCA conditions continue through tonight.

For Sunday, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for west winds around 15 to 20 gusting up to 30 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday night...SCA due to wind gusts up to 25 kt.

Monday...Lingering SCA possible early due to gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 15-20 kt late.

Monday night through Tuesday night...No marine headlines expected.

Wednesday and Thursday...SCA conditions probable due to wind gusts around 25 kt and seas building to 4-6 feet.

Rip Currents...

Have upgraded the risk of rip currents to moderate for the Central and South Jersey Shore for Sunday. Otherwise, for the northern Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches, the risk is low tomorrow. Expect a low risk everywhere on Monday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Spotty minor coastal flooding is possible with Sunday morning's high tide as well within the tidal Delaware River at Burlington and Philadelphia, but should fall short of advisory levels.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ430-431-450>455.