Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mayo, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:45PM Friday December 6, 2019 3:22 PM EST (20:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:57PMMoonset 1:25AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 1251 Pm Est Fri Dec 6 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..S winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered sprinkles.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
ANZ500 1251 Pm Est Fri Dec 6 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will pass through the waters this evening. High pressure will follow for the weekend, before a stronger area of low pressure develops over the mid-mississippi valley and tracks northeastward toward the eastern great lakes early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday night through Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayo, MD
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location: 38.87, -76.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 062003 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 303 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will cross the area this evening. High pressure will build in from the west this weekend, before a stronger area of low pressure develops over the Mid-Mississippi Valley and tracks northeastward toward the eastern Great Lakes early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Near solid mid-high level overcast has overspread the area this afternoon in advance of a cold front approaching from the west. At mid-upper levels, two shortwaves are evident on satellite. One is located across the deep south, while another is approaching the eastern Great Lakes. With the two main shortwaves skirting to our south and north, synoptic scale forcing for ascent across the area this afternoon will be minimal. Although a few sprinkles can't be ruled out anywhere, little precipitation is expected to make it east of the Allegheny Front. The best chance for a brief shower late this afternoon or this evening to the east of the mountains will be across northeast Maryland, where ascent in the right entrance region of a jet streak may help to induce some lift.

Showers are expected late this afternoon through the evening along the Allegheny Front with upslope flow behind the front. As colder air begins to work in, the showers could end as a brief period of snow, but little to no accumulation is expected. There's also a low end chance for a brief period of freezing drizzle along the Allegheny Front as the inversion builds down, potentially leaving the saturated part of the sounding between 0 and -5 C. Probability of this occurring still appears to be very low, so while it will be something to monitor, it isn't in the official forecast at this time. All precipitation should shut off later tonight along the Allegheny Front, and skies should gradually clear out across the forecast area. Lows tonight will range from the mid 20s in the mountains to mid 30s in DC and Baltimore.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. A strong area of high pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley on Saturday, leading to sunny skies areawide. Temperatures will run below normal in the cool air mass behind today's cold frontal passage, with highs maxing out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The high will become centered overhead Saturday evening, setting the stage for an ideal radiational cooling night. With clear skies, near calm winds, and dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s, temperatures should drop rapidly. Have adjusted temperatures down from previous forecasts to account for this radiational cooling scenario.

The high will shift offshore on Sunday, causing winds to switch around to southerly. Skies should start off sunny, but some high clouds may stream in during the late afternoon hours, well in advance of a system located over the center of the country. Highs on Sunday will run a few degrees warmer than Saturday, with max temps primarily in the 40s.

Clouds will continue to stream in Sunday Night in advance of a digging trough over the center of the country. As a push of warm advection ensues ahead of that system, showers may develop across the area late Sunday Night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure will remain well offshore while low pressure tracks northeast into the Great Lakes Monday and then into southeastern Canada for Tuesday. A warm front will slowly pass through the area later Monday into Tuesday and the cold front associated with the low will pass through the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. A deep southerly flow will allow for milder conditions Monday and Tuesday, although cold air damming may keep temps closer to normal Monday (north of the warm front). The deep southerly flow will also usher in copious amounts of moisture during this time. The deeper moisture combined with lift from a strengthening low-level jet and upper-level jet should provide enough moisture and lift for rain Monday. Showers are likely Monday night and Tuesday ahead of the cold front.

The cold front will likely pass through the area Tuesday evening. An upper-level trough will pass through the area behind the boundary Tuesday night, and Canadian high pressure will build overhead for Wednesday and Thursday.

There may be just enough upper-level support for some precipitation on the cold side of the boundary Tuesday night. If so, there is a potential for some snow to mix in before precipitation ends. However, confidence is very low since most of the energy is in the northern stream, and the axis of the trough remains positive to perhaps neutrally tilted. Will continue to monitor.

For Wednesday, blustery and much colder conditions are expected. There will be some snow showers along and west of the Allegheny Front, and it is not out of the question that some of those snow showers can spill east of the mountains. At this time, it appears that the westerly flow at the low-levels should keep that threat limited. Canadian high pressure will build overhead Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing dry and cold conditions. The high will move offshore late in the week, allowing for a moderating trend.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Mainly mid/high level clouds today with southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front. There could be lower ceilings (around 5kft) and a few light showers or sprinkles as the front passes late this afternoon/early evening, but no visibility issues are expected. Winds will shift out of the northwest behind the front and could be briefly gusty to 20-25 kt.

High pressure will build in for the weekend, bringing clear skies and light winds. The next chance for sub-VFR conditions will be late Sunday Night as lower ceilings and showers move in ahead of an approaching system located over the center of the country.

Rain and subVFR conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Gusty west to northwest winds are expected behind the cold front Tuesday night and Wednesday. The rain may mix with some snow before ending Tuesday night, but confidence is very low at this time.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all of the waters this afternoon through tonight. We're currently in a brief lull in the winds, but they're expected to pick up behind a cold front which will cross the area late this afternoon into this evening. Winds will start diminishing from north to south through Saturday morning as high pressure builds.

Light winds expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday with high pressure in control. Southerly flow may increase a bit Sunday night as the high departs, but looks to be sub-SCA at this time.

Low pressure will pass by well to the west Monday. A southerly flow will increase as a warm front moves through the waters later Monday into early Tuesday. An SCA may be needed for portions of the waters during this time. A cold front will approach from the west Tuesday before passing through Tuesday night. High pressure will approach Wednesday. An SCA will likely be needed for the waters during this time.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ531-532- 538>540. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Saturday for ANZ533-534- 537-541>543. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Saturday for ANZ530-535- 536.

SYNOPSIS . KJP/ADS NEAR TERM . KJP SHORT TERM . KJP LONG TERM . BJL AVIATION . BJL/KJP/ADS MARINE . BJL/KJP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 3 mi82 min SSW 15 G 16 52°F 46°F1017.8 hPa (-3.1)30°F
44063 - Annapolis 7 mi28 min WSW 9.7 G 12 52°F 46°F1017.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi52 min 55°F 1016 hPa
CPVM2 10 mi52 min 48°F 48°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 14 mi112 min SSW 6 53°F 1017 hPa26°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 22 mi28 min W 14 G 16 51°F 1018.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 24 mi52 min SW 14 G 18 54°F 1015.7 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 27 mi52 min S 8 G 13 51°F 45°F1016.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi52 min WSW 5.1 G 9.9 54°F 49°F1015.5 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 29 mi52 min SSW 8 G 12 52°F 44°F1017.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 29 mi52 min SSW 6 G 8.9 50°F 44°F1017.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 38 mi52 min WSW 9.9 G 14 52°F 47°F1018 hPa
NCDV2 48 mi52 min SSW 7 G 11 52°F 48°F1017.1 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi88 minVar 310.00 miOvercast54°F26°F34%1017.1 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD10 mi27 minSW 10 G 1510.00 miFair54°F28°F38%1016.9 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD21 mi26 minWSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds53°F27°F38%1017.1 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi32 minSSW 1210.00 miClear54°F33°F47%1018.6 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD22 mi28 minSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F28°F41%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNAK

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Thomas Point Shoal Light, Maryland
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Thomas Point Shoal Light
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:25 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:14 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:56 PM EST     0.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:40 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.60.40.20.100.10.10.30.40.60.70.70.70.60.40.30.20.20.20.30.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:25 AM EST     0.50 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:25 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:08 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:33 AM EST     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:44 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:08 PM EST     0.85 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:38 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:34 PM EST     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:44 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.50.30-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.30.10.50.70.80.80.60.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.20.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.