Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Russell Springs, KS

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 118 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

A surface trough is approaching the Kansas/Colorado line which is leading to a gradient between breezy winds and winds around 10-15 mph. Ahead of this trough wind gusts of 30-40 mph have been observed. High temperatures remain forecast in the low to mid 80s across the area. This afternoon, a couple of high based, dry thunderstorms may develop along the axis of the trough in eastern Colorado. Wind gusts of 45-55 mph may be possible during the dissipation stage of these storms but dry lightning may be the main hazard as a source of potential fire starts. Any storms that do develop are forecast to dissipate as the sun sets as we lose heating. Overnight, a 40-45 knot LLJ is forecast to develop which should continue to keep the breezy winds overnight so have increased overnight lows a few degrees. Interestingly enough, high resolution guidance does not support this and has winds falling to around 10 mph. I'm currently leaning towards the breezy winds continuing as this seems to be more climatological for the area, if the winds don't continue then low temperatures may be around 5 degrees to warm.

Tuesday, longwave troughing becomes more prevalent along with a developing dryline approaching the Kansas/Colorado state line.
At this time Tuesday, looks to be the warmest day of the forecast period as high temperatures reach the upper 80s to low 90s across the area. Some near critical to critical fire weather conditions are forecast across the Colorado counties but based on feedback from fuel contacts Kit Carson and Cheyenne are considered "green" from green up and the recent rains; Yuma county has mixed fuels with northern portions being the relative worst as they missed out on most of last weeks rains.

Am also seeing a conditional threat for isolated strong to potentially severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Overall forcing is again weak but depending on how sharp of a gradient develops along the dry line a few dry circulations could serve as a way for storm development. Should storms develop, large hail up to half dollars given 2000-2500 j/kg MUCAPE and very high lapse rates around 9- 10C/KM. Bulk shear at this time looks a little weaker around 20 knots so a messier storm mode would be favored which would also help mitigate updraft strength. Hail would be the most likely hazard but confidence in storm development is around 10-15% at this time. Locations around the Tri-State border (Yuma, Cheyenne (KS), Dundy) based on forecast dryline bulges looks to have the relative higher potential for storm development.

Wednesday, a surface low across SW Kansas is forecast to develop and will assist in dragging the dry line further to the east. If this is slower in occurring then can't rule out some thunderstorm potential along and east of Highway 25 as some ensemble members do have the low slower in developing so this will need to be something to watch. Temperatures will also be highly dependent on the placement of this low as well as it will dictate the positioning of a cold front on the back side of the low. A further west or slower low would support warmer temperatures versus a further east low or quicker low would support cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s. The low placement will also dictate if we have fire weather concerns as well in the counties that still have favorable fuels. Locales closer to the center of the low would see light and variable winds versus elsewhere would see wind gusts around 30-40 mph.

Wednesday evening, a shortwave and associated vorticity max along with the cold front looks to come off of the Front Range.
This may lead to some thunderstorm development through the evening hours. There is some variation on where the better forcing ends up as it may be north of the forecast area but severe wind gusts of 60-70 mph may be possible with the activity. If the front can speed up then there may be some blowing dust concerns as well, but there still does remain quite a bit of discrepancy with the timing so overall confidence in that hazard is low at this time.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 118 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

To start the extended period, the surface low is forecast to eject into the northern Plains. Breezy to strong winds are forecast to continue Thursday as well in wake of the low. The strongest winds at this time appear to be north of Interstate 70 where wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible. Humidity values are again forecast to fall into the mid to upper teens so may again need to keep an eye for fire weather but may be dependent on how much rainfall falls to night before.

A reprieve in the wind is forecast to occur Friday as we become semi zonal flow develops. Still on the "cooler" side of the low high temperatures look to be near normal in the 70s across the area and overall dry conditions forecast with no clear cut forcing for anything seen at this time.

Saturday and through the remainder of the extended period a more active pattern may develop. Deep troughing is forecast to develop across western CONUS along with an increase in moisture from the southeast. An increase in thunderstorm and potentially severe potential may increase as well. However, a multitude of variable may enhance or decrease any severe potential so will continue to monitor this set up over the next several days. High temperatures however do look to be more seasonable in the 70s to low 80s across the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 545 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

GLD: VFR conditions / clear skies will rule through the TAF period. Cirrus (ceilings 18+ KFT AGL) associated with decaying convection in Kat Carson County, CO will remain west of the Goodland terminal. Breezy (20-30 knot) south winds are expected to decrease to 10-15 knots this evening (03-06Z Tuesday). A 50-55 knot S to SSE nocturnal low level jet anticipated to develop late this evening will result in southerly LLWS overnight.. similar to the past few nights. LLWS will abate around or shortly after sunrise (~14-15Z Tuesday) as the boundary layer deepens and the depth of vertical mixing increases in response to diurnal heating. Guidance suggests that a modest lee trough/cyclone will remain in place over eastern Colorado.. and that breezy (15-25 knot) south winds are apt to persist through the majority of the day in northwest Kansas.

MCK: VFR conditions / clear skies will rule through the TAF period. Breezy (20-30 knot) south winds are expected to decrease to 10-15 knots this evening (03-06Z Tuesday). A 50-55 knot S to SSE nocturnal low level jet anticipated to develop late this evening will result in southerly LLWS overnight.. similar to the past few nights. LLWS will abate around or shortly after sunrise (~14-15Z) as the boundary layer deepens and the depth of vertical mixing increases in response to diurnal heating.
Guidance suggests that a modest lee trough/cyclone will remain in place over eastern Colorado.. and that breezy (20-30 knot) S to SE winds are apt to persist through the majority of the day in southwest Nebraska.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.