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FXUS63 KGLD 271052 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 452 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the region this afternoon and evening. All hazards will be possible.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the day Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 318 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Across the region this morning, skies are mainly clear east of the Colorado border, while in Colorado mostly cloudy to cloudy skies persists as showers work through the area. Temperatures as of 100 AM MDT are ranging in the mid 40s to mid 50s with winds 10 mph or less.

Going into today, the main wx concerns for the short term period will focus mainly later today and tonight as another round of severe weather will impact the Tri State area. Sunday could see wrap-around showers/storms impact the area, but tapering off through the day.

For Today/Tonight: the region is expected to see strong to severe thunderstorms start to ramp up over the area by 18z. Surface low currently over the SE Colorado/SW Kansas region will shift slowly easy more into Kansas through midday. A broad upper level circulation seen on the latest RAP40 500mb analysis will also continue a slow trudge off the central Rockies as it is blocked by an amplified ridge to the east.

The latest CAMs (HRRR, RAP and NamNest) continue to show a couple rounds of storms developing by 18z. The first initiates ahead of the upper low and swings E/NE into the CWA, while the second batch more associated with the surface low starts in the east and fills in/lift into the remainder of the CWA along/ahead of the front attached to the low.

Various soundings around the 18z-21z timeframe show high SBCape/ MUCape values around 3000j/kg especially along the southern CWA closest to the surface low. Numbers taper the further north into the area you go. Strong 0-6km shear will also be present along the front as it interacts with the flow from the upper low to the west.

The increased instability this afternoon with daytime heating/front dynamics has pushed the SPC severe outlook to an Enhanced Risk for areas along/east of Highway 83, with a Slight Risk for the bulk of the area and a Marginal Risk remaining for extreme western/southern zones. Threats continue to be focused on large hail 2+ inches or more but damaging winds and even tornadoes can't be ruled out. PW values 0.50" to 1.00" in spots could allow for locally heavy rainfall/flooding concerns, especially in areas, like E/NE zones, that have already received 1-2" of rainfall. WPC has much of the region along/north of the Interstate under a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall.

All of this activity will slowly shift north and east overnight into Sunday as both lows continue to lift away from the area. Sunday's chances for rw/trw will begin to trend to more wrap-around moisture related as winds become northerly through the day.

Clearing ensues slowly from south to north overnight, giving way to zonal flow aloft Mon/Mon night and eventually southerly surface flow. This will bring temperatures back to around normal with the decent southerly downslope gradient.

For temps, with a front draped along the southern border of the CWA, today will have a decent range for daytime highs with mid 50s to mid 60s west of a line from Cheyenne Wells, Colorado to Goodland, Kansas up to the Culbertson, Nebraska area. East of this line, mid 60s to mid 70s are expected. Any shift in the front could adjust expected highs by several degrees.

Sunday's highs are expected to range from the upper 50s into the mid 60s. Warmest areas south of Highway 40. Going into Monday, above normal warmth returns with lower to mid 70s forecasted.

Overnight lows tonight will range from the upper 30s west of Highway 25, into the mid and upper 40s east of Highway 25. Sunday night, mid to upper 30s expected, and for Monday night, warmer with lower to mid 40s along/west of Highway 27 into the upper 40s to lower 50s east of there.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 127 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

At the start of the long term period, upper troughing across the northwest CONUS places the area under west-southwesterly flow aloft.
Down at the surface, a front will push through the area during the Tuesday morning hours. The subsequent upper low mid-week digs a bit more than the prior low pressure system, with flow aloft backing to become more southwesterly. As the trough/low pressure system progress eastward, another front sweeps through the area, bringing cooler temperatures with forecast 850 mb temperatures Friday morning around/slightly below 0C up to around 2-4C. The mid-week system will also bring a return of chances for precipitation, generally around 30% but up to 50% for northwest portions Wednesday evening-Wednesday night. Thunderstorms will be possible off and on throughout the period; details at this range leave uncertainty in severe storm potential, but based off latest ensembles/guidance, a return of active weather is possible Wednesday on following the brief reprieve.

Regarding temperatures, Tuesday and Wednesday are anticipated to be above normal with highs generally in the 70s and lows from the upper 30s to near 50. Temperatures then slightly below normal are forecast for Thursday, with highs in the mid-upper 50s to mid-upper 60s and overnight lows in the middle 30s to low 40s. Temperatures warm again to near normal by Friday and above normal Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 411 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through about 15z before dropping to MVFR as ceilings lower. By the 00z Sunday timeframe MVFR transitions to mainly IFR/LIFR as ceilings drop below OVC010.
5-6sm in shower/fog. From about 23z Sat-06z Sun, VCTS possible as a low moves through the area. Low confidence in timing of any storms, but they may start a few hours earlier. Stay tuned for updates later today. Winds, north-northeasterly around 10-20kts. Gusts to 30kts possible from 23z Sat-05z Sun.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through about 15z before dropping to MVFR at times as ceilings lower. MVFR ceilings by 00z Sunday shift to IFR/LIFR with a range below OVC010. 5-6sm in shower/fog. From about 00z-06z Sun, VCTS possible as a low moves through the area. Low confidence in timing of any storms, but they may start a few hours earlier. Stay tuned for updates later today. Winds, currently west around 10kts, but shift northeasterly by 15z around 15-25kts.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 450 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

There is currently a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for areas north of a line from Lenora, Kansas southwest towards Wild Horse, Colorado. This will be associated with strong to severe thunderstorms that occur this afternoon/evening. PW(precipitable water) values of 0.80-1.00" will provide ample moisture for storms over the next 24 hours.

Currently rainfall amounts expected today through Sunday in the risk area will range from about 0.30-0.80". This does not take into account any storms that may train over a particular location.

Any rainfall in the next 24 hours will be in addition to already prone locales that have received at least 1-2 inches from the round of storms Thursday. Soils in these areas may be close to saturation in spots and could become problematic should storms/training storms occur.

The latest 1hr and 3hr flash flood guidance(FFG) shows another round of 1-2 inch rainfall could send areas into flood status. And 6hr flash flood guidance(FFG) shows about 2-3 inches will be needed.

Currently there are no flood products in effect/issued. Please monitor for further updates later today.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

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