Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Weskan, KS

UPDATE
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Wed May 21 2025

Widely scattered sprinkles/showers will continue through the overnight but chances for measurable precipitation will be low.
Some patchy fog may also develop towards sunrise along Interstate 70, but confidence is low as latest models runs show only very limited coverage, if any at all. For Thursday, an upper level ridge will build over the southern plains with some ridging extending further north. There will be weak waves topping the ridge which will support scattered shower and thunderstorm development along the Front Range from Colorado to Wyoming. However, chances for convection making it further east appear to be slim, perhaps the best chances will be tonight in southwest Nebraska if storms manage to take a southerly turn around the ridge axis. Otherwise, expecting mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 1224 PM MDT Wed May 21 2025

A surface low continues to spin across the northern Plains but is pulling away from the region. Further west some weak ridging is seen across the western CONUS, putting the Tri-State area into the eastern periphery of this ridge. This is a typical pattern for some convection for the area with any subtle wave that propagates down the eastern portions of the ridge which is in fact the case today. The main focus for the forecast period will be the potential for showers and storms during the afternoon hours as a weak wave moves towards the area off of the Cheyenne Ridge.
Dew points in the low 40s are forecast to be in place across northeast portions of the area which at this time appears to be the most likely location for thunderstorm development during the early to mid afternoon hours. Am thinking the main hazards with any storm will be damaging winds to 65 mph given very steep lapse rates in place, very strong mid level winds around 55-75 knots and inverted v soundings in place. Weaker winds in the boundary layer should assist in any of these strong winds surviving to the surface. Some large hail may be possible given very strong 0- 6 wind shear, however the CAPE is a little less to be desired only around 500 j/kg which raises some questions as to whether or not an updraft can root itself in the environment or not with the very strong shear in place. The favored area for any severe storms looks to be east of Highway 25 and north of I-70 through around 9pm CT.

High temperatures for the day remain forecast in the mid 70s across the area as the higher 850mb temperatures continue to remain further west underneath the weak ridging. Low temperatures for the night are forecast in the mid 30s across western Kit Carson and Yuma county where again some frost may be possible again low lying areas. Winds overnight are forecast to become more ENE and light which may lead to some localized fog across the northeast corner of the area.

Thursday, the weak mid level ridging moves again slightly to the east breezy southeast winds are forecast to continue as moisture continues to stream into the area. High temperatures are again forecast in the mid 70s across the area. Showers and storms look to form off of the Front Range during the afternoon hours and move to the east. These storms may be strong to potentially severe as they move into western portions of Kit Carson and/or Cheyenne county. As the evening goes on a low level jet develops which may provide some additional support to keep storms continuing eastward across the area so will continue to keep some chances for rainfall continuing. As moisture continues to stream into the area will need to keep an eye on some stratus or fog into Friday morning.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 136 PM MDT Tue May 20 2025

A potentially more active pattern may again return to the area starting Thursday and continuing through the weekend. Troughing is forecast to develop across the western CONUS. A warm front also is forecast to set up across the central Plains as well which with the troughing may lead to a potential for daily showers and storms Thursday and into the start of the next week.
Any strong to severe storm threat will be dependent on how each of these features sets up. Overall am seeing a pretty decent signal at some easterly upslope flow which is a typical signal for the increasing chances for rainfall. At this time, currently thinking that Friday and Saturday may be the relative favored time frame for severe weather to occur as a surface low develops in eastern Colorado which is favored in numerous ensemble member solutions and deterministic guidance which shows the roughly the same pattern indicates plenty of shear and CAPE in place. It is however way to far out to with confidence pin point out any potential hazards or exact locations where the threat may be the relative highest at. This will need to be something to continue to monitor as we approach the next holiday weekend.

High temperatures to start the period are currently forecast in the upper 70s to mid 80s with the warmest day currently appearing to be Friday. There is then decent ensemble support in the potential for cooler air around 10 degrees below normal temperatures to move down into the area Sunday and Monday. At this time high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s are currently forecasted but may need to be lowered especially if cloud cover is stronger than currently forecast.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Wed May 21 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. There is a low chance (less than 20%) of fog at KGLD around sunrise this morning with brief visibility reductions possible.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.