Cheyenne Wells, CO Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cheyenne Wells, CO

June 22, 2024 5:27 AM CDT (10:27 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 9:11 PM
Moonrise 9:35 PM   Moonset 5:33 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheyenne Wells, CO
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Area Discussion for - Goodland, KS
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FXUS63 KGLD 220907 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 307 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Weekend looks to remain hot with highs in the 90s to low 100s.
Could be a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening.

- Next week will have 90s for much of the area, with Monday into the 100s, and a potential high heat indices.

- Chances for storms each day next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Across the region this morning, skies are mostly cloudy to cloudy as a surface low continues a slow trudge northeastward out of the area.
There is a trailing cold front behind this system. Temperatures as of 100 AM MDT are mainly in the 70s east of the low, with 60s behind it associated with the front. Similar setup with winds as a southwesterly flow is occurring ahead of the low/front, with northwest flow on the backside/with the front. Gusts in both regimes are up to 20-30 mph at times, mainly away from the low circulation.

Weather concerns for this weekend into next Monday will continue to focus on the hot, above normal temperatures each day. Also there is a chance for convection Sunday and Monday afternoon/evening.

Looking aloft, the latest RAP40 500mb analysis and mid level water vapor imagery are showing a broad expanding ridge over the southern portions of the country. It will be this feature that will be the most impactful weather-wise over the CWA during the short term period. Its current position will bring zonal flow aloft today, but going into Sunday and Monday, the latest GFS/NAM continue to show amplification of this ridge into the Rockies, which is going to result in a shift to W/NW flow aloft each day. Guidance does show a couple weak shortwaves that pass along the eastern side of this ridge Sunday and Monday.

At the surface, the region is still seeing extensive cloud cover from a slow moving surface low as it lifts into south central Nebraska. A cold front behind this low continues a S/SE push into the area, bringing a shift to a N/NW flow, replacing the southerly fetch the area has seen over the past 24 hrs. High pressure will settle in behind this front during the day, with a slow trek E/SE into the Plains. Downslope warming aloft, with 850mb temps +24c to +29c will provide another hot but dry day for the area once the cloud cover clears the area later today. Northerly winds today will eventually shift northeasterly tonight and eventually southerly by Sunday morning as the aforementioned ridge moves east of the area.

Going into Sunday, downslope warming aloft continues through the 24 hour period. With the surface high setting up east and models bringing a lee-side trough into the Front Range, southerly flow will usher in a hotter day compared to today area-wide. With amplification of the upper ridge into the Rockies, there will be a weak shortwave riding along the eastern side of the ridge. This system will interact with the surface trough during the afternoon, triggering a 15-30% chance for convection. The latest NamNest is showing this convection cropping up around 21z, clearing east by 03z Monday. With the near surface being so dry and hot(850mb temps +27c to +32c), storms to be elevated with wind threats should any form up. PW values around an inch west to 1.50" east could allow for a locally heavy downpour as well. This activity again clears by mid evening from west to east.

And for Monday, conditions are a similar setup to Sunday. Southerly surface flow with downslope warming aloft will give the CWA another hot day(850mb temps +31c to +35c). A late afternoon/early evening shortwave passage interacting with a low/front sinking through the region will trigger some rw/trw potential. This potential precipitation will be a welcome reprieve to the hot conditions from the daytime hours. See temperature section below for info concerning potential Heat Advisory.

For temps, highs for the area this weekend will have a range in the lower to mid 90s for Saturday, increasing on Sunday from the mid 90s to the lower 100s. Going into next Monday, the region will be hotter with a range from the upper 90s into the mid 100s.

With Sunday and Monday expecting to have almost the entire CWA having at least 100F for daytime highs, there is the possibility for some locales to come within a few degrees of tying a record. Please refer to the Climate section below for further information.

Along with the hot, above normal temperatures, humidity will be present to bring about high heat indices for areas east of Highway 25, especially Monday. Readings could approach 100 to 105. This could result in the issuance of a Heat Advisory for portions of the area. Stay tuned.

Lows for tonight will range in the lower to mid 60s. For Sunday night, mid 60s to lower 70s expected. Going into Monday night, a range from the mid 60s west into the lower 70s east is expected.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 210 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Overview: Long range guidance indicates that the Tri-State area will initially be situated on the northern periphery of an upper level ridge (centered over the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains), at the southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies (on Tuesday).. and that the aforementioned ridge will consolidate/amplify over the Desert Southwest and extend northward to the 4-Corners and central Rockies (Wed-Thu).. then flatten and regress southward to the Desert Southwest/Southern Plains (Thu-Fri) as an upper level low moving ashore the Pacific NW progresses eastward across the northern Rockies/ Dakotas..
and cyclonic flow aloft envelopes the Intermountain West.

Tue-Wed: Well above average temperatures are apt to persist.
Precipitation chances /convective development/ in this period will highly depend upon the evolution of the ridge. 00Z 06/22 operational ECMWF guidance indicates that the magnitude, position and orientation of the ridge will be such that (1)
synoptic subsidence may largely suppress diurnal convective development along the Colorado Front Range/Palmer Divide and (2)
that low-level forcing/moisture may be insufficient for in-situ convective development on adjacent portions of the High Plains (i.e. northwest KS). 00Z 06/22 operational GFS guidance indicates a similar, albeit less pronounced, ridge.. with the mid-latitude westerlies in closer proximity to the Tri-State area on Wednesday.. a somewhat more favorable pattern for late aft-eve convective development.

Thu-Fri: 00Z ECMWF/GFS operational guidance are in relative good agreement that upper level flow will back to the SW over the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains in this period.. as cyclonic flow aloft envelopes the western CONUS.. and that the Tri-State area will remain on the far southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies (southwesterlies, in this case). Despite relatively good agreement on the synoptic pattern, sensible weather conditions depicted by the GFS are at considerable odds with those depicted by the ECMWF on Friday, an indication that mesoscale processes -- e.g. latent heat release and/or airmass augmentation assoc/w deep convection both upstream and well- removed from the Tri-State area -- may highly influence the outcome. With the above in mind, forecast confidence decreases precipitously by the end of the week. Broadly speaking, expect above average temperatures and a relative greater potential for convection.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1047 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Generally VFR conditions will be observed at both KGLD and KMCK, with southwesterly winds gusting to 20 kts for the first few hours in the period. Overnight, winds will shift to be out of the northwest at ~10 kts with scattered to broken ceilings.
Winds will shift throughout the day tomorrow towards the north then south-southeast by the end of the period, remaining light.

CLIMATE
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

With hot conditions expected over the area Sunday and especially into Monday, with highs at least 100F area-wide, there could be some locales coming within a few degrees of at least tying the daily record(s). The records for Sunday, June 23rd and Monday, June 24th listed below are for comparison to the expected forecast each day.
Despite the region seeing triple digit heat, most locales are still below records.

Sunday, 6/23 Monday, 6/24

Goodland KS 106F in 2012+ 109F in 2012

Burlington CO 106F in 1954 107F in 1954

Hill City KS 111F in 2012 114F in 2012

McCook NE 106F in 2012+ 107F in 1943

Colby KS 105F in 1943 107F in 2012

Tribune KS 105F in 1954 109F in 2012

Yuma CO 107F in 1954 103F in 2002

A (+) denotes a multiple year record

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KITR KIT CARSON COUNTY,CO 24 sm34 minNW 0710 smClear63°F59°F88%30.02
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Goodland, KS,




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