Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cheyenne Wells, CO
July 3, 2024 12:22 AM CDT (05:22 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:24 AM Sunset 9:11 PM Moonrise 2:59 AM Moonset 6:47 PM |
FXUS63 KGLD 030449 AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1049 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Thunderstorms in Colorado may increase in coverage and track eastward into Kansas early Wednesday morning. An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, mainly south of Highway 96 in southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas.
- Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Significant uncertainty exists with regard to thunderstorm location and coverage.
- Breezy to gusty 4th of July; normal to below normal temperatures into early next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 113 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Mid level troughing is present across the area currently with a weak cold front draped across southern portions of the area. 700mb moisture looks to continue for the most of the area keeping skies partly to mostly cloudy. Some thicker stratus looks to impact northern portions of the area as well to start the afternoon with continued overcast skies.
Weak shortwave which is currently moving off of the Rockies will be the focal point for storm development as it reaches the Palmer Divide. RAP has been showing an increase in 700-500 mb moisture correlating with continued CAM initiation roughly around the Flagler area around 20Z. Strong to marginally severe weather is possible initially due to a lack of instabilty as dew points in the mid to upper 40s are in place. As this continues to trek east into better moisture do think a slow intensification process looks to occur. RAP forecast soundings indicate an environment that would be favorable for 70 mph winds and hail up to two inches in a fully mature cell.
Cold front will slowly lift north as a warm front tonight. Another weak wave will move off the mountains and with an increasing LLJ will add to lift across southern portions of the area. HRRR is currently suggesting an environment that would be supportive of severe weather overnight across SW portions of the area with stronger moisture advection. RAP and NAM are not as aggressive on the moisture return which would keep elevated CAPE values down some. Thinking there is some potential for overnight hail around half dollar size with a mature cell. Showers and storms will expand in coverage into the morning hours to the east. Will leave the patchy fog in the forecast for tonight across the east as the RAP continues to show around 90% surface RH and light easterly winds which is supportive of fog development; however if the showers and storms do occur that will end any fog potential where the rainfall is ongoing.
RAP consistently has been showing a signal for low stratus to hang around the majority of the day Wednesday so have trended high temperatures down a few degrees along and east of Highway 27 where this is forecast to occur. The main focus for the day Wednesday will be on another round of severe weather. A sharp surface trough will be across the region. A 250mb jet streak will also be developing throughout the day to provide upper level support. A dry line looks to be situated across Colorado which will be the focal point for initiation, potentially as early as 1pm MT. Supercells capable of very large hail initially, perhaps a tornado threat can develop as well if a cell can remain discrete into the mid to late afternoon as SRH increases. Storms are then forecast to grow upscale with outflow boundaries as they interact with a very moist air mass and a strengthening LLJ as it moves to the east. Do have some concerns of a bow echo developing as 700mb winds increase into the evening hours; if this does occur then wind gusts in excess of 70 mph will be on the table. There may be some potential for a quick spinup squall line (QLCS) tornado as well along the leading edge as the RAP does indicate 25-50 j/kg of 0-3 CAPE.
Depending on the orientation of the line if its W to E or NW to SE oriented will be dependent on the tornado threat as the 0-3 shear vector looks to be oriented more SE to NW. However there is some potential that storms will be more isolated and/or be on the weaker side due to concerns about instability especially if the cloud cover does in fact linger all day. There also does appear to be some concern on the timing of the wave off the Rockies as well which would turn the severe threat into if severe storms in the Nebraska Panhandle can follow a CAPE gradient into the CWA So there area still quite a bit that needs to be worked out so continue to stay up to date with the forecast.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 113 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
To start the long term, a cold front will move across the area on the 4th of July holiday in response to a developing ridge across the western CONUS, will also need to watch for low stratus development Thursday morning as 850 mb moisture moves along just ahead of the front. A surface high nudges in tightening the pressure gradient across the area which looks to bring breezy conditions to the area. Be sure to use caution if using any fireworks! High temperatures are currently forecast in the 80s across the majority of the area. Low to slight chance shower and storm chances will remain in the forecast with 700-500mb moisture potentially moving in from the north during the afternoon and evening hours. Thursday night into Friday morning, the surface high will still be influence the weather across the region which will support lower dew points and lighter winds especially across the west. Would not be surprised if some higher elevations across the west fall into upper 40s for low temperatures.
A blocking pattern at least from temperature standards looks to occur as a large surface high develops across the southern CONUS which will keep our temperatures below normal but still in the 80s to low 90s. Upper level northwest flow will be dominant through the extended period which will keep some potential for daily showers and storms with any disturbance that ride down the eastern periphery of the ridge. A stronger wave does look possible late weekend into the early week which may support some severe potential.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Aside from a potential for showers/thunderstorms at the GLD terminal overnight
and at either terminal Wed aft/eve
VFR conditions should otherwise prevail. Confidence in thunderstorm location and coverage is low enough to preclude explicit mention at this time. Light easterly winds will shift to the south and increase to 15-25 knots late Wed morning into Wed afternoon.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1049 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Thunderstorms in Colorado may increase in coverage and track eastward into Kansas early Wednesday morning. An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, mainly south of Highway 96 in southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas.
- Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Significant uncertainty exists with regard to thunderstorm location and coverage.
- Breezy to gusty 4th of July; normal to below normal temperatures into early next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 113 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Mid level troughing is present across the area currently with a weak cold front draped across southern portions of the area. 700mb moisture looks to continue for the most of the area keeping skies partly to mostly cloudy. Some thicker stratus looks to impact northern portions of the area as well to start the afternoon with continued overcast skies.
Weak shortwave which is currently moving off of the Rockies will be the focal point for storm development as it reaches the Palmer Divide. RAP has been showing an increase in 700-500 mb moisture correlating with continued CAM initiation roughly around the Flagler area around 20Z. Strong to marginally severe weather is possible initially due to a lack of instabilty as dew points in the mid to upper 40s are in place. As this continues to trek east into better moisture do think a slow intensification process looks to occur. RAP forecast soundings indicate an environment that would be favorable for 70 mph winds and hail up to two inches in a fully mature cell.
Cold front will slowly lift north as a warm front tonight. Another weak wave will move off the mountains and with an increasing LLJ will add to lift across southern portions of the area. HRRR is currently suggesting an environment that would be supportive of severe weather overnight across SW portions of the area with stronger moisture advection. RAP and NAM are not as aggressive on the moisture return which would keep elevated CAPE values down some. Thinking there is some potential for overnight hail around half dollar size with a mature cell. Showers and storms will expand in coverage into the morning hours to the east. Will leave the patchy fog in the forecast for tonight across the east as the RAP continues to show around 90% surface RH and light easterly winds which is supportive of fog development; however if the showers and storms do occur that will end any fog potential where the rainfall is ongoing.
RAP consistently has been showing a signal for low stratus to hang around the majority of the day Wednesday so have trended high temperatures down a few degrees along and east of Highway 27 where this is forecast to occur. The main focus for the day Wednesday will be on another round of severe weather. A sharp surface trough will be across the region. A 250mb jet streak will also be developing throughout the day to provide upper level support. A dry line looks to be situated across Colorado which will be the focal point for initiation, potentially as early as 1pm MT. Supercells capable of very large hail initially, perhaps a tornado threat can develop as well if a cell can remain discrete into the mid to late afternoon as SRH increases. Storms are then forecast to grow upscale with outflow boundaries as they interact with a very moist air mass and a strengthening LLJ as it moves to the east. Do have some concerns of a bow echo developing as 700mb winds increase into the evening hours; if this does occur then wind gusts in excess of 70 mph will be on the table. There may be some potential for a quick spinup squall line (QLCS) tornado as well along the leading edge as the RAP does indicate 25-50 j/kg of 0-3 CAPE.
Depending on the orientation of the line if its W to E or NW to SE oriented will be dependent on the tornado threat as the 0-3 shear vector looks to be oriented more SE to NW. However there is some potential that storms will be more isolated and/or be on the weaker side due to concerns about instability especially if the cloud cover does in fact linger all day. There also does appear to be some concern on the timing of the wave off the Rockies as well which would turn the severe threat into if severe storms in the Nebraska Panhandle can follow a CAPE gradient into the CWA So there area still quite a bit that needs to be worked out so continue to stay up to date with the forecast.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 113 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
To start the long term, a cold front will move across the area on the 4th of July holiday in response to a developing ridge across the western CONUS, will also need to watch for low stratus development Thursday morning as 850 mb moisture moves along just ahead of the front. A surface high nudges in tightening the pressure gradient across the area which looks to bring breezy conditions to the area. Be sure to use caution if using any fireworks! High temperatures are currently forecast in the 80s across the majority of the area. Low to slight chance shower and storm chances will remain in the forecast with 700-500mb moisture potentially moving in from the north during the afternoon and evening hours. Thursday night into Friday morning, the surface high will still be influence the weather across the region which will support lower dew points and lighter winds especially across the west. Would not be surprised if some higher elevations across the west fall into upper 40s for low temperatures.
A blocking pattern at least from temperature standards looks to occur as a large surface high develops across the southern CONUS which will keep our temperatures below normal but still in the 80s to low 90s. Upper level northwest flow will be dominant through the extended period which will keep some potential for daily showers and storms with any disturbance that ride down the eastern periphery of the ridge. A stronger wave does look possible late weekend into the early week which may support some severe potential.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Aside from a potential for showers/thunderstorms at the GLD terminal overnight
and at either terminal Wed aft/eve
VFR conditions should otherwise prevail. Confidence in thunderstorm location and coverage is low enough to preclude explicit mention at this time. Light easterly winds will shift to the south and increase to 15-25 knots late Wed morning into Wed afternoon.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KITR
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KITR
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KITR
Wind History graph: ITR
(wind in knots)
Goodland, KS,
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