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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cheyenne Wells, CO

November 3, 2024 7:41 AM CST (13:41 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:10 AM   Sunset 5:43 PM
Moonrise 9:37 AM   Moonset 6:48 PM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheyenne Wells, CO
   
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Area Discussion for Goodland, KS
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FXUS63 KGLD 031320 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 620 AM MST Sun Nov 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy, dense fog possible this morning in northeast colorado and adjacent KS/NE counties.

- Severe thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon-evening with all modes of severe weather possible.

- Good chance (30%-70%) for rainfall Sunday night-Monday.

- Rainfall/snowfall chances Tuesday night-Friday night.

UPDATE
Issued at 620 AM MST Sun Nov 3 2024

Updated the forecast to add in patchy dense fog for areas in KS/NE. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for Sherman county through mid morning with visibility dropping. Areas west and south of this are in a SPS(Special Weather Statement) for patchy fog with visibility a mile or less for the next couple hours.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 226 AM MST Sun Nov 3 2024

Across the Tri State region this morning, mixed cloud cover persists over the entire area, with scattered clouds in the southeast giving way to a low level cloud deck over much of the north into western locales. With a front sitting north of the CWA and a low/trough sitting over eastern Colorado, southerly flow is occurring over the area. The latest area obs show the tightest gradient along the Colorado border in KS/NE where gusts up to 25-30 mph are occurring, but overall in the 5-15 mph range. The resulting cloud cover and southerly flow is allowing for temperatures to range in the 50s.

The main weather concerns in the short term will focus on any fog potential this morning, giving way to strong to severe storm chances later today into the evening hrs as a dryline pushes east. A cold front follows tonight, which could bring some light snow to portions of northeast Colorado into Monday morning. Remaining precip clears east through the day. Tuesday could see some light precipitation for areas along/west of Highway 27 Tuesday evening.

Going into today, looking for any patchy fog and low cloud cover to persist this morning before giving way to partly cloud skies. The low/trough sitting over Colorado will slowly push east into KS/NE as a dry line late in the day. Instability ahead of the boundary is expected to trigger showers and thunderstorms, mainly around the 00z Monday timeframe onward. The latest CAMs(HRRR, RAP and NamNest) are showing the CWA precip-free until then. With the upper flow more southwesterly, the dryline could be slowed up some, but with guidance continuing to show a cold front to sweep into the area this evening, the extra instability will aid in triggering convection.
SPC still carries a Marginal Risk for severe storms similar to yesterday at this time, with areas along/east of a line from McCook, Nebraska down to the Brewster, Kansas area and down to Tribune, Kansas at most risk for seeing anything strong to severe in nature.
Model soundings do show some weak shear that could occur along the boundary, combined with some MUCape and DCape around 600-800 j/kg could bring brief tornado, large hail(around 1") and winds(60+) for hazards. Looking for precipitation to linger postfrontal as the colder air behind the boundary may begin to trigger a mix of rain/snow.

For Monday and Monday night, the cold front will continue to push east-southeast over the area. Precipitation will begin to wane west to east through the day as a result. There is a large 25% to 70% range for precip chances during the day Monday as the cold front interacts with ample low level moisture over the area. By 00z Tuesday, a 15-20% chance near the Highway 25 area gives way to 35- 45% chance through 06z with areas east of Highway 83 from 06z-12z seeing the last bits of ending precip. Guidance continues to put a low chance for light snow to mix in with/change to over portions of northeast Colorado. Current guidance has lowered the potential amount to less than an inch in this area. Accompanying the precip chances will be a strong northerly gradient with the potential for gusts to approach the 35-45 mph range. These winds where it is snowing could bring some blowing snow effects, and limit visibility for driving purposes.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, exiting shortwave to the east will provide at least a portion of the day precip-free. The latest GFS/NAM show zonal flow aloft at 500mb that will transition to more southwesterly by the afternoon hrs and carry into the evening. This will be do to a digging 500/700mb shortwave from the west down into the Rockies. At the surface, a trough develops along the lee side of the Rockies by the afternoon and will kick out into the CWA as a trough/boundary as the upper support moves into the Rockies.

As the system slides south through the area during the late afternoon hrs, any southerly flow initially will transition to an easterly upslope fetch the will persist into the evening and eventually turn northerly as a surface ridge builds off the north central Rockies. The result of the orographic/upslope flow will be be increased low level moisture into the western CWA, especially northeast Colorado. This moisture will interact with the 500/700mb shortwave to trigger some light chances(20% to the Highway 27 corridor up to 40% in northeast Colorado) for mainly rain showers based on temperature trend overnight. With 850mb temps around 0c to - 2c in Colorado overnight, some areas in western portions of Kit Carson and Yuma and Cheyenne counties could see some mixing to light snow showers. There is the potential for a few tenths of an inch of snow by 12z Wednesday.

For temps, today will be the warmest day ahead of a cold frontal passage late in the day. A range from the upper 50s to around 70F is expected. Warmest areas today will be east of a line from McCook, Nebraska southwest to Colby and Tribune, Kansas. The passage of the front will give way to a range in the 40s for highs Monday and slightly warmer in the 50s for Tuesday.

Overnight lows tonight will range in the lower to mid 30s along/west of Highway 27. East of there, mid 30s to lower 40s are expected.
Going into Monday night, mainly 20s for the area. Locales south of Highway 36 and along/east of Highway 83 will be around 30F. Slightly warmer for Tuesday night with mid to upper 20s west into the lower 30s going east.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 300 AM MST Sun Nov 3 2024

This period will see a deep cut off low migrate from the Four Corners region on Wednesday to near/over the Tri State area on Saturday. Model runs tonight have trended to a more favorable track for rain and snow in the area. There are still some differences which may impact rain and snow amounts, but given the better agreement in the models confidence has increased to medium. Snow will be favored in Colorado and along/west of Highway 27 in Kansas/Nebraska through Friday, perhaps transitioning to mostly rain Friday night and Saturday.
Precipitation will be mostly if not all rain further east. Still a large spread in the snow and rainfall amounts, but there is some potential for several inches of snow, especially in Colorado. The initial round of light snow will begin in Colorado Wednesday and spreading into the Kansas/Colorado border area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night as the upper low digs just west of the Rockies and favorable low level upslope develops at the surface behind the cold front. This will be followed by the main round of rain and snow Thursday and Friday as the upper low approaches, followed by light wraparound type of precipitation on Saturday as it lifts into Nebraska. Wind speeds do not appear to be much of a problem until perhaps Friday night, when the surface low deepens and the gradient increases, but that also appears to be the time that some warmer air gets advected in from the southeast and the precipitation may be mostly rain as opposed to snow. Not much confidence in those kind of details at that time range and models will likely change as we get closer.

Temperatures will be below normal for the period, with highs in the 30s and 40s (coldest west) and lows mainly in the 20s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 333 AM MST Sun Nov 3 2024

For KGLD, MVFR/IFR ceilings(around OVC010-015) will persist through about 15z then VFR. Winds, south 10-15kts through 15z, then southwest 10-20kts. By 00z Monday, northwest around 10kts but increasing by 03z to 16-26kts from the north.

For KMCK, IFR ceilings will lift to MVFR(BKN-OVC015-020)
through 00z Monday. VFR thereafter. Winds, southeast 10-20kts through 00z Monday, then northeast around 10-20kts.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST this morning for KSZ013.
CO...None.
NE...None.


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Goodland, KS,





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