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FXUS63 KGLD 090844 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 144 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2023

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 140 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2023

Overview: A deep upper level trough.. presently situated over the central CONUS.. will progress eastward across the MS River Valley (Sun) to the Atlantic Coast (Mon).

Today-Tonight: While less cloud cover will be present across the region today, a colder low-level airmass (850 mb temperatures -2 to -6C) advecting into the region from the north early this morning will, nevertheless, foster cooler high temperatures..
ranging from the upper 30s (eastern Colorado) to lower-mid 40s (east of Highway 83). A relatively tight surface/mslp to 850 mb height gradient on the far southwest periphery of a deepening mid- latitude cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will foster breezy NW-NNW winds across the region today. Forecast soundings via recent runs of the HRRR, RAP and GFS indicate a mixed-layer depth ~4-6 KFT AGL today with ~25-35 knot NNW flow therein and throughout, suggesting sustained winds on the order of 20-35 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. The surface/mslp to 850 mb height gradient will slacken this afternoon/evening.. as the aforementioned mid-latitude cyclone progresses further downstream of the region. With this in mind, winds are apt to rapidly weaken with the onset of the nocturnal inversion shortly before sunset.
Expect chilly (albeit seasonable) overnight lows in the teens..
and an increasing potential for upper level cloud cover /orographically enhanced cirrus/ after midnight.. as the aforementioned upper trough progresses east toward the MS River Valley and NW flow strengthens atop the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Whether or not (and to what degree) increasing upper level cloud cover may affect temperatures will highly depend upon the time-of-arrival and depth/opacity of cirrus. Locations situated in closer vicinity to the Rockies (e.g. northeast CO) are relatively more likely to see temperatures rise prior to sunrise.

Sun-Mon night: NW flow aloft will prevail in this period.. albeit gradually backing from the NW (Sun) to WNW (Mon). Expect benign weather and a slight/modest warming trend. It should be mentioned that, in a NW-WNW flow synoptic regime.. daytime highs and overnight lows are prone to be influenced by episodic bouts of thick orographic cirrus.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1235 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

Cloudy skies and another chance at precipitation during the second half of the week is in store for the Tri-State area.

We will begin the period under zonal flow before a trough cuts into the High Plains early Wednesday morning. We look to remain under overcast conditions for majority of the long term period, which will stunt temperature swings. However, the near surface temperatures are forecast to be swinging from the 20s to low 40s during the period, which will dramatically alter P-type after the trough enters the area.

Overall there is low confidence in specifics for this next system, but here are broad strokes:

A trough will be moving into the area early Wednesday, precipitation looks to start Wednesday evening. The big driving force for the precipitation will be a 500 mb low that will slowly move from the Four Corners region to the east. Before it crosses the Rockies, it will be projecting a few long arms of vorticity that look to create enough forcing for light precipitation to occur.

Around 0Z Friday, an 850 mb lee low looks to form, bring in a cold front during the day Friday, and work to create more forcing in the lower levels.

Moisture will be provided by a high pressure system over the Mid- Mississippi River Valley assisting moist Gulf of Mexico air to move into the area.

The diurnal temperature swings will play a major role in P-type.
Current guidance is showing a saturated melting layer at and near the surface. If this holds, most of the precipitation will reach the surface as rain during the warmer daytime hours. With the southerly winds that are expected to persist through Friday, this is a definite possibility (~50% chance of occurrence). Overnight temperatures are expected to fall below freezing, which would allow the dominate P-type to be snow with a brief rain/snow mix occurring in the transition timeframe.

For alternate possibilities, the southerly winds and saturated air could keep temperatures above freezing overnight (~15% chance of occurrence). This would prevent the P-type from becoming snow overnight. On the flip side, evaporation cooling could force temperatures even lower during the day. This would shrink the melting layer and rain may not even occur, or would only briefly occur (~10% chance of occurrence). There may not be enough forcing for precipitation to occur, leading to prolonged cloudy and foggy conditions(<10% chance of occurrence). This possibility could be the most dangerous due to the potential for freezing drizzle when temperatures drop below freezing.

Although there will be ample moisture and prolonged (yet light/moderate) forcing, QPF looks to remain fairly light, remaining under 0.2 inches through Friday. Current guidance has majority of the QPF in the southern half of the CWA.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 942 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecasted for both terminals. Winds are expected to increase through the first half period as a system moves away from the area. Near surface wind are forecasted to remain roughly from the northwest through the period and peak around the 18Z hours with speeds around 25 kts and gusts near 35 kts. Winds will then quickly lower as the sun sets tomorrow. There is a low chance for LLWS between 09-15Z as the winds increase, but guidance is suggesting that the increase should be fairly uniform in the lowest 2000ft.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

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