Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cheyenne Wells, CO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The low that has been sitting over Missouri is finally pushing off to the east, albeit fairly slowly. The high pressure system sitting over southern New Mexico is also slowly moving to the northeast, increasing its influence on the CWA We can still expect 500mb shortwaves to eject off the Rockies and ride along the edge of the high, causing enough lift to continue storm potential in the afternoon and evening hours the next few days. In the low levels, we will not be lacking moisture as the 850 mb flow, while not terribly strong, will continue to funnel moisture into the region.

A blob of 500 mb vorticity has kept a line of storms and showers going stretching from southwestern Nebraska to around Oakley, and on southeast. While this precipitation has brought some additional moisture to the surface, as we are warming up today, the boundary layer RH has decreasing and the showers have dissipated. These storms have disrupted the surface layer winds today with locations to the west of the showers favoring a southwesterly direction, pushing air into the storms, and areas to the east of the line having fairly light winds. Additionally, temperatures near and east of the precipitation have been under a cloud deck, severely stunting warming through the morning and mid-day. CAMs have not been handling this line, which introduces considerable uncertainty into the severe potential later today.

As mentioned above, another shortwave will eject off of the Rockies in the late afternoon, potentially bringing us more storms in the late afternoon into the overnight hours. While CAMs are showing northwestern Yuma county will see a decaying supercell, around 1-5Z, giving this portion of the CWA a brief hail and wind threat as the storm(s) fall apart. However, there will also be an 700 mb convergence zone extending from around Yuma, CO to Scott City, KS where additional storms may form. These new storms may be sparked by the decaying storms moving in from the northwest, or as the shortwave begins to pull this zone to the east. Main threats with today's system will be hail of 1-2 inches, winds of 40-60 MPH with an outside chance of 70 MPH gust, and landspout potential with newly forming storms. The storms are expected to be fairly scattered in nature. The severe threat looks to end no later than 8Z, although there is a 20% chance that additional storms will fire in the early morning.

Temperatures overnight will remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s thanks to the fairly persistent cloud cover. Stratus is expected to move in just before sunrise tomorrow morning, too. Patchy fog may (30% chance) form along and east of KS 25. Easterly winds and near saturated RH values support the stratus and fog potential. These clouds, while they are expected to burn off before 18Z, will slow warming tomorrow morning, so have gone ahead and lowered max temperatures for Sunday to around 90, but they may need to go lower depending on early morning convection.

Sunday's severe weather chances have a similar mode and timing as today's weather. However shear looks to be notably better and support a greater, albeit still low chance, threat of a tornado.
This risk is conditional on an organized storm making to the KS 27/25 corridor. At that point, if a supercell takes the right or left mover motion, it will slow to a crawl of under 15 kts. This could lead to a flooding concern in areas that have already seen an inch or two of rain the past few days. Overnight, the severe threat should be concluded by 8-10Z and temperatures will cool into the low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The pattern looks to remain largely the same as the ridge continues to push in farther from the southwest and the low over Missouri slows exits to the east. The Goodland CWA looks to be on the northeastern edge of the ridge, so we can still expect to see some shortwave systems impacting the area, allowing us to see some isolated storms Monday afternoon and evening. Tuesday evening, when a large trough is expected to enter from the Pacific northwest and push the high back south, we will see a much greater chance of severe weather. The day 4 15% outlook from SPC now includes all of the CWA

Around Wednesday or Thursday morning the high looks to move back north, into the Great Plains, blocking us from the jet for a good portion of the forecast. This will cause temperatures to climb and keep any good chances at precipitation at bay. This will increase the potential for critical fire weather conditions, so we will be keeping a close eye on that. By Friday, temperatures could be around 105 and heat indices around the same, so we cannot rule out a heat advisory.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 515 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

GLD: Aside from a potential for MVFR stratus a few hours on either side of sunrise.. VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period. Thunderstorm development may largely be suppressed this evening and overnight. If thunderstorms develop across portions of the area early Sunday morning, the Goodland terminal appears unlikely to be affected.
S winds at 15-25 knots will back to the SSE and decrease to 10-15 knots after sunset, perhaps becoming light and variable overnight. SSE to SE winds at 10-15 knots will prevail during the day on Sunday.

MCK: Decaying thunderstorms could affect McCook late this evening and overnight (~06-09Z Sun), though.. probabilities are lower than the past 2 days. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period. S to SSE winds at 8-14 knots this evening may become variable overnight. SSE to SE winds at 10-15 knots will prevail during the day on Sunday.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.