Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lower Lake, CA

DISCUSSION

Today-Mid Week:

Warm and dry weather continues under upper level ridging, with periodically breezy winds expected into Saturday AM. Downslope northeast to east winds will remain strongest along the Sierra during the overnight and early morning hours, with gusts 25 to 35 mph look to develop tonight into Saturday AM for the Sierra and adjacent foothills.

Afternoon high temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above normal, with widespread Valley and foothills high temperatures in the low to mid 70s and widespread mountain high temperatures firmly into the 60s. With the transition from northwesterly flow aloft to ridging aloft, winds are expected to decrease throughout the day on Saturday, remaining generally light area wide across the rest of the weekend.

As the ridge axis shifts eastward a broad area of west-souhwest flow and weak troughing aloft looks to build in Sunday into next week. Despite this upper level shift, high heights aloft look to persist at least into the middle of next week. This flow pattern should usher in a gradual return toward light onshore flow alongside continued warmer than normal high temperatures. Daytime temperatures are forecast to remain above normal early to mid next week, with Valley and foothill highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Late Next Week:

Ensembles continue to indicate the potential for a shift toward an active weather pattern late next week into next weekend, with chances for heavy rain, heavy mountain snow and breezy winds.
However, cluster guidance still indicates uncertainty regarding the position and timing of the upcoming trough. The anticipated southward progression of deep troughing over the Gulf of Alaska toward the California coast remains the largest piece of uncertainty at this time. Latest blended guidance regarding precipitation onset continues to trend towards late next week and into next weekend. Regardless, the CPC 8-14 Day Outlook (Nov.
14-20) does continue to highlight a moderate risk for heavy rain and heavy mountain snow, as well as a slight chance for high winds which can be anticipated once the pattern does indeed shift. Be sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast information and check back for updates as we get closer.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds will be lighter, remaining less than 12 kts at TAF sites, but still from a generally north to east direction. Breezy east-northeast winds increase along the Sierra and upper foothills gusting up to 20-30 kts after 00z Saturday, slowly decreasing after 09z but maintaining similar direction. .

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.