Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Washington, DC

KEY MESSAGES
-1) Temperatures warm through the weekend with a cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms late Sunday.

-2) Quiet weather and cool temperatures through Wednesday before a cold front brings renewed rain chances late week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures warm through the weekend with a cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms late Sunday.

Cold front passes through over next few hours with continued accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms moving NW to SE. There has been quite a bit of lightning with these storms for March, owing to the elevated instability. Profiles also show an inversion responsible for the louder rumbles of thunder observed. Otherwise, west to northwest winds will develop behind the front. This wind will usher in cooler and drier air today into tonight. Temps will be noticeably cooler but still be above average. Highs should reach the 60s to lower 70s in the southern areas.

Plenty of sunshine Sun. A south to southwest wind will redevelop through the day ahead of the next cold front. High temps will push into the lower 80s widespread with some lower to middle 70s in the mountains and in Northeast MD. Dry conditions expected until Sun night when showers and a couple of thunderstorms develop along and ahead of the front. The front has continued to trend slightly slower. SPC does have the NW portions of the FA in a Marginal Risk with a Slight Risk just west of the area. Gusty northwest winds will develop behind the passing cold front Sun night into the early part of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Quiet weather and cool temperatures through Wednesday before a cold front brings renewed rain chances late week.

1030-1032 mb Canadian high pressure will build over the area Tuesday into Wednesday with below normal temperatures expected. The surface high slowly drifts offshore Wednesday into Thursday with a weak shortwave trough passing through. This trough could touch off a few rain showers across the mountains and in northern parts of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon and evening, but overall consensus amongst the 00z guidance remains dry. Temperature moderate THursday into Friday as high pressure pushes further offshore and another frontal boundary slides into the region.

Model spread, mainly in the timing of troughs/fronts, starts to increase during this time. There will be a low pressure system passing well to the north, and it may send a backdoor front into the area Thursday. Whether or not this solution pans out will have a large effect on temperatures, with the range of possibilities from the upper 40s to upper 60s. Another low will quickly follow across the Great Lakes, with a stronger cold front projected to reach the area sometime Friday. The timing of these fronts could also impact temperatures Friday into the weekend, although the more important highlight is that this front will bring the next chance of widespread rainfall.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Showers and thunderstorms should move out by 09Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions through the day today. Winds shifting northwest becoming light and variable overnight through Sat night. Winds becoming southerly again then southwest ahead of the Sun night cold front. MVFR or IFR conditions could redevelop with shower and thunderstorm activity Sun night with a stronger cold front.

Northwest winds may gust up to 30 kt on Mon. Sig weather is unlikely Tue and Wed as high pressure builds across the area.

MARINE
SCAs remain in effect through the predawn as gusts push to around 20-25 knots out of the SW. Post-frontal northwesterlies actually decrease a bit on Sat before light southerlies return by late Sat. Given brief duration, likely can handle with a MWS.

SCAs likely Sun afternoon through Sun night. Winds south to southwest 5 to 15 knots Sun, increasing out of the NW with gusts of 20 knots Sun night.

Small Craft Advisories are likely Mon into Mon night in strong post-frontal NW'ly flow. Some gusts of 30 kt are possible. High pressure will provide light winds Tue. Southwest winds may begin to increase Tue night into Wed and may approach advisory criteria. SCA level winds likely Thu and again Fri as the next front pushes in.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ530>534-536-537-539>543.