Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Racine, OH
 | Sunrise 6:14 AM Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 6:55 PM Moonset 4:25 AM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Racine, OH
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FXUS61 KRLX 120241 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1041 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
Mainly dry weather overnight. Showers and storms return for the first half of the work week with some containing heavy downpours. Risk for severe storms increases late week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1040 PM Sunday...
Other than a pesky narrow west to east zone of lower dew points across northeast Kentucky and south central West Virginia, the forecast remains on track.
As of 720 PM Sunday...
The forecast remains on track this warm and pleasant Mother's Day evening.
As of 525 PM Sunday...
Dew points that fell into the 20s in southeast portions of the forecast ara earlier this afternoon have since recovered, and were adjusted accordingly. Isolated showers popping up over extreme southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia, should not be long-lived, and the forecast otherwise remains on track.
As of 104 PM Sunday...
Quiet, comfortable weather continues today under the influence of high pressure over the Great Lakes. Most places should remain rain free the rest of today, with the exception of extreme southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia, where there could be a passing shower.
An area of low pressure, currently situated over the Deep South, will track northward by Monday, bringing the return of showers areawide. There could also be an embedded thunderstorm or two, but instability looks very weak (200-400 J/kg or less of CAPE).
Therefore, severe weather is not expected Monday.
Models are projecting around 1.5 inches of PWATs across the area Monday afternoon, which signals that some showers may be heavy enough to produce localized flooding, especially in training cells. However, flash flood guidance is rather high (1 hr FFG 1.25-1.75", 3 hr FFG 1.50-2.00"), so we expect the overall flooding threat to be low.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 240 PM Sunday...
Key Points:
* A slow moving disturbance yields potential for showers and thunderstorms through at least midweek.
* Dry soil conditions will gradually be inundated with bursts of heavy rainfall, and could impose local high water issues.
A nearly stacked low pressure system will continue to churn showers and embedded thunderstorms into Central Appalachia through the course of the short term period. Weak flow aloft will yield a slow departure of this disturbance, maintaining periods of likely to categorical POPs each day as plumes of moisture funnel up from the south. Daytime heating and shortwave energy will exacerbate shower and storm chances and then slumping back down to low end chances after sunset Monday and Tuesday night.
While the severity risk with this system remains fairly lackluster for the start of the work week, there will be a growing concern for high water issues as precipitation masks the area for an extended period of time. Forecast precipitable water values ranging between 1.25 to 1.5 inches, which is slightly above climatology for this time of year, will gradually chip away at the antecedent drier soil conditions and could impose local issues under periods of heavier downpours. This would especially be the case in areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with this event. WPC maintains the higher threat for flooding east of the mountains with the latest forecast cycle.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 240 PM Sunday...
Key Points:
* Renewed showers and storms possible by the second half of the day Thursday after a brief stint of dry weather.
* Decent signal for strong to possible severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.
Active weather shows no signs of letting up for the second half of the work week as one disturbance, aforementioned heavily in the short term period, exits and a new system arrives quickly in its wake. Precipitation chances slip below 50 percent for the first time in days beginning late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as ridging aloft sails over the area. However, coverage fills back in by the later half of the day under the guise of an encroaching upper trough. This will be a timeframe to monitor over the next several days as there is a decent signal for strong to possible severe thunderstorms sometime late Thursday afternoon and into the evening. Granted, there remains a variety of model solutions this far out in the forecast, but bears monitoring nonetheless.
The upper level pattern opens up into zonal flow late in the week into next weekend with an area of low pressure sliding into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front extending down into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys could maintain additional opportunities for showers and storms through the end of the forecast period.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 720 PM Sunday...
VFR conditions prevail through tonight, before low pressure brings showers, with deteriorating flight conditions, on Monday.
Conditions will be predominantly MVFR, beginning first thing in the morning south, and by early afternoon north. Brief IFR conditions are possible in heavier showers or even an afternoon thunderstorm. IFR conditions are most likely at BKW, on both ceiling and visibility, from late Monday morning through much if not all of Monday afternoon.
Gusty southeast flow at BKW will continue through Monday, with gusts primarily in the 15-20 kt range. Elsewhere, light northeast to southeast surface flow this evening will become light and variable to calm later tonight, and then light east to southeast Monday morning, and then gusty southeast at the other southern sites, HTS and CRW, and possibly also EKN, Monday afternoon. Light southeast flow aloft tonight becomes light to moderate south Monday morning.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low ceilings could move in sooner than expected. Persistence of IFR conditions at BKW Monday could vary, with possible dips into LIFR.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/12/25 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in stratus and fog in the mountains Monday night into Tuesday morning, especially along the higher ridges and east to southeast facing slopes. IFR conditions possible under afternoon convection on Tuesday, and again late in the work week.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1041 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
Mainly dry weather overnight. Showers and storms return for the first half of the work week with some containing heavy downpours. Risk for severe storms increases late week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1040 PM Sunday...
Other than a pesky narrow west to east zone of lower dew points across northeast Kentucky and south central West Virginia, the forecast remains on track.
As of 720 PM Sunday...
The forecast remains on track this warm and pleasant Mother's Day evening.
As of 525 PM Sunday...
Dew points that fell into the 20s in southeast portions of the forecast ara earlier this afternoon have since recovered, and were adjusted accordingly. Isolated showers popping up over extreme southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia, should not be long-lived, and the forecast otherwise remains on track.
As of 104 PM Sunday...
Quiet, comfortable weather continues today under the influence of high pressure over the Great Lakes. Most places should remain rain free the rest of today, with the exception of extreme southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia, where there could be a passing shower.
An area of low pressure, currently situated over the Deep South, will track northward by Monday, bringing the return of showers areawide. There could also be an embedded thunderstorm or two, but instability looks very weak (200-400 J/kg or less of CAPE).
Therefore, severe weather is not expected Monday.
Models are projecting around 1.5 inches of PWATs across the area Monday afternoon, which signals that some showers may be heavy enough to produce localized flooding, especially in training cells. However, flash flood guidance is rather high (1 hr FFG 1.25-1.75", 3 hr FFG 1.50-2.00"), so we expect the overall flooding threat to be low.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 240 PM Sunday...
Key Points:
* A slow moving disturbance yields potential for showers and thunderstorms through at least midweek.
* Dry soil conditions will gradually be inundated with bursts of heavy rainfall, and could impose local high water issues.
A nearly stacked low pressure system will continue to churn showers and embedded thunderstorms into Central Appalachia through the course of the short term period. Weak flow aloft will yield a slow departure of this disturbance, maintaining periods of likely to categorical POPs each day as plumes of moisture funnel up from the south. Daytime heating and shortwave energy will exacerbate shower and storm chances and then slumping back down to low end chances after sunset Monday and Tuesday night.
While the severity risk with this system remains fairly lackluster for the start of the work week, there will be a growing concern for high water issues as precipitation masks the area for an extended period of time. Forecast precipitable water values ranging between 1.25 to 1.5 inches, which is slightly above climatology for this time of year, will gradually chip away at the antecedent drier soil conditions and could impose local issues under periods of heavier downpours. This would especially be the case in areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with this event. WPC maintains the higher threat for flooding east of the mountains with the latest forecast cycle.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 240 PM Sunday...
Key Points:
* Renewed showers and storms possible by the second half of the day Thursday after a brief stint of dry weather.
* Decent signal for strong to possible severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.
Active weather shows no signs of letting up for the second half of the work week as one disturbance, aforementioned heavily in the short term period, exits and a new system arrives quickly in its wake. Precipitation chances slip below 50 percent for the first time in days beginning late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as ridging aloft sails over the area. However, coverage fills back in by the later half of the day under the guise of an encroaching upper trough. This will be a timeframe to monitor over the next several days as there is a decent signal for strong to possible severe thunderstorms sometime late Thursday afternoon and into the evening. Granted, there remains a variety of model solutions this far out in the forecast, but bears monitoring nonetheless.
The upper level pattern opens up into zonal flow late in the week into next weekend with an area of low pressure sliding into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front extending down into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys could maintain additional opportunities for showers and storms through the end of the forecast period.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 720 PM Sunday...
VFR conditions prevail through tonight, before low pressure brings showers, with deteriorating flight conditions, on Monday.
Conditions will be predominantly MVFR, beginning first thing in the morning south, and by early afternoon north. Brief IFR conditions are possible in heavier showers or even an afternoon thunderstorm. IFR conditions are most likely at BKW, on both ceiling and visibility, from late Monday morning through much if not all of Monday afternoon.
Gusty southeast flow at BKW will continue through Monday, with gusts primarily in the 15-20 kt range. Elsewhere, light northeast to southeast surface flow this evening will become light and variable to calm later tonight, and then light east to southeast Monday morning, and then gusty southeast at the other southern sites, HTS and CRW, and possibly also EKN, Monday afternoon. Light southeast flow aloft tonight becomes light to moderate south Monday morning.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low ceilings could move in sooner than expected. Persistence of IFR conditions at BKW Monday could vary, with possible dips into LIFR.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/12/25 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in stratus and fog in the mountains Monday night into Tuesday morning, especially along the higher ridges and east to southeast facing slopes. IFR conditions possible under afternoon convection on Tuesday, and again late in the work week.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for K3I2
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for K3I2
Wind History Graph: 3I2
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic
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