Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Hill, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 5:12PM Sunday December 15, 2019 6:10 PM EST (23:10 UTC) Moonrise 8:50PMMoonset 10:46AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Hill, OH
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location: 38.89, -82.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 151935 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 235 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. Strong system approaches tonight into Monday with a wintry mix north transitioning to a heavy rain and flooding threat through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 230 PM Sunday .

Nose of a strong H850 low level jet currently just exiting northern Arkansas will arrive in western portions of the forecast area this evening. Convergence associated with this feature will kick-off an extended period of precipitation this evening. Warm air advection with the feature will cause some initial precipitation type issues with snow across the northern half of the forecast area transitioning to sleet and freezing rain through the early morning hours and then all rain by mid-morning. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches and total ice accumulations of mainly a light glaze with localized accumulations up to a tenth of an inch.

By mid-morning any lingering wintry mix transitioning to all rain with the focus turning to potential high water issues. Plume of near climatological maximum moving average (based on ILN proxy sounding) precipitable water values with associated with the aforementioned low level jet will be sitting over us through Monday evening. The right entrance region of an H250 150KT jet over the Eastern Great Lakes will provide strong background ascent atop a somewhat more narrow ribbon of frontogenetical forcing. Total rainfall values through Monday night will fall mostly into the 1 to 1.5 in range with rain continuing into the short term period.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 151 PM Sunday .

Low pressure system to track across southern WV and up through the Greenbrier valley Monday night and Tuesday, then finally exiting Tuesday night. Good jet dynamics and good moisture feed with PWs between 1.25 to 1.75 with this system. Expect axis of heavy rain between 1 to 3 inches to set up from Ern Ky into central WV and then across NE WV. Either side of that axis could see anywhere from 0.75 to 1.50 inches. 3hr FFG across the region ranges from an 1 to 2 inches. So issued a Flood Watch for the entire area except for Perry and Morgan Counties in SE OH, as those counties are expected to see less rain with a sharp precip gradient.

Cold front from this system moves through Tuesday with much colder air behind the front. Some lingering precip could change back to snow before ending across the area late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. Upslope snow showers may linger in the WV mountains on Wednesday, with flurries possible elsewhere.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 215 PM Sunday .

Quiet end to the work week expected as high pressure moves eastward across the area on Thursday and Friday. Another system is expected to move into the area on Saturday bringing a light mix bag of precip for the weekend and possible snow showers for the WV mountains on Sunday.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 230 PM Sunday .

Any lingering MVFR ceilings briefly improve to VFR late this afternoon. Increasing moisture ahead of a potent storm system will yield decreasing ceilings and increasing precipitation chances through the evening/overnight hours. IFR cig/vis impacts possible at PKB/CKB/EKN by 06-08Z, but think IFR holds off for the remaining terminals through at least early Monday morning.

HTS may briefly see a few snowflakes mixing in this evening prior to transition to rain. More significant impacts at CKB/PKB/EKN possible with enough warm air moving in aloft to transition snow to sleet and/or freezing rain prior to switching to all rain by late morning. PKB may see a little break in the rain during the day Monday, but remaining terminals will see continuous light to moderate rainfall through beyond this TAF period.

Westerly surface winds this afternoon turn light and easterly overnight (except southerly around 5KTs at BKW/EKN). Increasing low level jet may create some LLWS concerns around HTS/CRW/BKW early Monday, but confidence not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY . FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of onset of precipitation tonight may vary by a couple hours. Timing of deterioration to IFR in SN and RA early Monday may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY . IFR likely in rain into Tuesday morning. IFR possible in rain and snow showers during the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WV . Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for WVZ009>011-017>020-028>032-039-040-521>526. OH . Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for OHZ075-076-083>087. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085. KY . Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA . Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for VAZ003-004.

SYNOPSIS . JS/JP NEAR TERM . JP SHORT TERM . JS LONG TERM . JS AVIATION . JP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for K3I2

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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.