Sunrise 6:47 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 3:19 PM   Moonset 4:02 AM

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FXUS61 KRLX 191658 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1258 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Passing cold front brings showers and storms through late this evening. Cooler and drier this weekend, the slowly warming into mid-week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1258 PM Friday...

Cold front, currently near the Ohio River will continue to push east this afternoon and evening, ending up east of the CWA late tonight.
Showers and storms will refire along this front, and some breaks in the clouds have been noted, which will help to increase instability and storm development this afternoon. Still a possibility for an isolated strong to severe storm, mainly across southern portions of the CWA, with a damaging wind risk the main threat.

Conditions will improve late tonight with some clearing possible.
Much in the way of fog development is not anticipated due to a light wind lingering across the area before pressure gradient relaxes towards morning. Saturday looks to be dry, with mid to high clouds returning later in the period from a disturbance to our south and west.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 215 AM Friday...

Quiet conditions are expected through the weekend as surface high pressure slowly spreads east across the middle of the country whilst Canadian Arctic high pressure largely respects the longest undefended border.

Dry conditions with dew points near to below the freezing mark may yield some patchy frost across the north Sunday morning with some more extensive frost possible Monday morning as well

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 215 AM Friday...

High pressure shifts off to the east Monday putting the region back into southwesterly flow Tuesday ahead of an approaching northern stream low slated to arrive in the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night.
This should yield a brief return to mild conditions with daytime highs across the lower elevations in the upper 60s to lower 70s amid a modest uptick in precipitable water to around 3/4 of an inch. A cold front associated with the aforementioned low will drag across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning yielding around a third of an inch of rainfall averaged across the basin. Instability looks rather meager, and coupled with overnight timing will cap any chances for convection at slight.

Cooler northwesterly flow over Lake Erie in the wake of cold frontal passage Wednesday likely yields at least some lake enhanced moisture plume feeding into the region during the day with fairly steep low level lapse rates through 5000 ft. Could see some low topped showers with this activity at least through Wednesday afternoon.

Cool and dry air settles in Wednesday night with some additional frost potential for Thursday morning.

The balance of the work week appears quiet with the next chance for precipitation looming for next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 651 AM Friday...

Radar imagery shows scattered showers arriving to NE KY and SE OH early this morning, ahead of an approaching cold front. VFR conditions are expected under light rain falling from an upper cloud deck during the morning hours. However, embedded thunderstorms could produce brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions into this afternoon. Coded VCTS per uncertainty whether storms will hit directly a terminal or not. Additional amendments will be required.

The cold front crosses during the afternoon producing a gusty wind shift from southwest to northeast at PKB, HTS and CRW around 18Z, and CKB, EKN and BKW by 20Z.

Ceilings will become MVFR along the higher terrain and behind FROPA, perhaps persisting through midnight. Drier conditions and even clearing may spread from west to east behind the FROPA with widespread VFR conditions prevailing across the western terminals this afternoon and evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H M L H H H H H H L M M PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H H H H M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR is expected at this time.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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