Wright City, MO Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wright City, MO

April 15, 2024 11:20 AM CDT (16:20 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM
Moonrise 10:46 AM   Moonset 1:36 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wright City, MO
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Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 151128 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 628 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Anomalous warmth persists today, with high temperatures reaching the mid/upper 80s yet again.

- There is up to a 40% chance for scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon until about 10pm across most of the area. One or two of these may produce quarter-sized hail and gusty winds, but most will be sub-severe.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are increasingly likely across central/northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois Tuesday afternoon into the evening, with greater uncertainty further south and east. All severe hazards (large hail, damaging wind, tornadoes) are possible, with the area mentioned above at risk for very large hail and a strong tornado.

SHORT TERM
(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Current regional surface analysis depicts a weak east- west oriented frontal boundary slowly advancing south from northern Missouri and west-central Illinois. The very weak surface convergence, mid-level subsidence, and absence of appreciable moisture is allowing for the front to pass with no sensible weather besides lowering dewpoints and slightly-cooler air. Strong subsidence aloft exists across the central CONUS, keeping skies mostly clear in the Missouri Valley and Upper Mississippi Valley.
Further west, a very amplified cutoff trough across the Intermountain West is resulting in strong diffluent flow across the Front Range. Leeside cyclogenesis is underway near the Colorado/Wyoming border, and this deepening low will be the focus for our upcoming active weather through early Wednesday morning.

A combination of daytime heating and the previously-mentioned surface low (to which this weak front is attached) ejecting into the Great Plains today will allow for the boundary to advance north as a warm front today. Temperatures will only be marginally impacted by the presence of the front, with no cold air advection of which to speak. As such, highs today will climb once more into the mid/upper 80s and prolong our highly-abnormal warmth. While the front will be largely unimpactful for most of the day given the stronger upper- level subsidence, the ridge aloft will begin to erode with most guidance showing a subtle shortwave advancing into the bi-state area this evening. That subtle cooling aloft will allow for isolated to scattered convection to develop along and ahead of the front this evening around sunset. Unless thunderstorms form very close to or slightly behind the front, they will be elevated and pose mainly a marginal large hail threat. Instability slowly wanes after sunset, which will limit the threat for severe weather beyond 10pm.

By early Tuesday morning, the region will be well-within the open warm sector of the deepening surface low. Aloft, the closed upper- level low will eject into the central Plains and promote broad ascent across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. There will some degree of cloud cover during the morning, and perhaps some convection in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois, but nothing widespread or intense enough to tamper instability for later in the day. There remains a very tangible threat for severe thunderstorms across the region, with particular focus still across central/northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois. This concern manifests when a dryline approaches the region from western Missouri. Convective initiation is still forecast during the early afternoon along and ahead of this feature as upper-level support improves further. Mid- level lapse rates will increase atop a very warm boundary layer, which will destabilize the atmosphere and intensify the discrete convection amidst strong deep-layer shear. Discrete supercells will race northeast from the boundary into central and northeast Missouri (as fast as 50-60kts) during the early afternoon, reaching west- central Illinois in the mid-afternoon.

Across central/northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois, model hodographs lengthen and exhibit increased curvature into the early/mid-afternoon in an area of lower LCLs. This environment will be most favorable for a tornado threat compared to surrounding areas. If a tornado develops, the stronger effective inflow shear and storm-relative helicity suggest a potential for it to be on the stronger side. The steep mid-level lapse rates and strong (but not overly-robust) instability will also lead to efficient hail growth.
This same general area is also at risk for not only severe hail, but hail to the size of hen eggs (2.00") at least. Uncertainty regarding the southeastward extent of the strongest severe thunderstorms still exists, but intensity decreases gradually further from the upper- level shortwave. That said, large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes are all possible across Missouri and Illinois outside of the previously-mentioned areas.

More severe thunderstorms may develop closer to the dryline itself Tuesday evening, prolonging the threat for very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. Stark differences remain in the location and coverage of any convection, but the best potential again is across central/northeast Missouri where the strongest upper-level support will exist through 12am. Finally, it's worth noting that non- convective winds and gusts will be on the stronger side during the day on Tuesday as the mature cyclone approaches. Wind speeds and gusts remain below threshold for a Wind Advisory at this point, but will come very close across the region.

MRB

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Wednesday will likely (80% chance) be largely uneventful, as long as the dryline exits the region at the speed it's forecast to. Some guidance does slow it down, leading to redevelopment Wednesday morning into the early afternoon in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois and a threat for more stronger thunderstorms. The best threat of this is south and east of the forecast area, but it bears monitoring. Otherwise, temperatures will be cooler areawide but will vary as the cold front advances through from the west. Highs will struggle to warm past the mid/upper 60s in northern/central Missouri and west-central Illinois, while those south and east will see marginally-warmer values.

Uncertainty still abounds into the latter half of the week with strong longwave trough centered near the US/Canada border forcing near-zonal flow across the central CONUS. This pattern will result in a surface boundary meandering near the region from late Thursday into the weekend. Shortwave impulses, nearly impossible to time with any accuracy at this stage, have potential to bring several rounds of rain to the region along the front. That said, where the front and shortwaves interact is highly uncertain and key to where rain falls. With each shortwave, it appears the boundary shunts further and further south, promoting cooler air than we've seen recently across the region going into the weekend. While some in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois may (30% chance) see rain on Saturday, we dry out Sunday when more defined northwest flow drives the front further south.

MRB

AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Other than a small area of MVFR stratus across south-central MO, clear skies exist across the region at this hour. A very weak front is currently analyzed roughly along the Missouri River extending into south-central Illinois. The front will advance back north today, and winds will gradually return out of the south as they do this afternoon and evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms look to develop along and just ahead of the front this evening. While a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out at the St. Louis and central Missouri terminals, there's little confidence in direct terminal impact given the isolated nature of the convection. KUIN may see some residual showers, but chances for thunder are lower.

The warm front advances north of the region Tuesday, and a tightening pressure gradient along with strong mixing will lead to gusty south winds during the day on Tuesday. Thunderstorms are forecast across the region, but beyond the current valid TAF period.

MRB

CLIMATE
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS

|=== 4/15 ==| St. Louis | 89 (2002) | Columbia | 90 (1896) | Quincy | 88 (2002) |



LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFYG WASHINGTON RGNL,MO 21 sm25 mincalm10 smClear75°F64°F69%29.94
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Wind History from SUS
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St. Louis, MO,



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